Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220640 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 240 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY... FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS. GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS. HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AS OF 305 PM MONDAY): AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000- 2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. -BLAES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE... ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS... EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA... THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY... ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY 15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU (ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...BLAES/KC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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