Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251558 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1155 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into our region today through Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 1155 AM Tuesday... Rest of today: Forecast is on track with very few changes needed. The latest surface analysis shows the front having settled to our south, with cool high pressure ridging in from the north. Observed soundings around the area reveal a dry column, and with the exception of a veil of high thin cloudiness spreading in late this afternoon from the NW within northwest flow, we should see considerable sunshine today as we undergo deep layer subsidence. Current temps are running 5-15 degrees under this time yesterday, and thicknesses continue to support highs in the mid-upper 60s. -GIH Earlier discussion from 305 am: In the wake of a dry cold front that crossed central NC Monday evening, high pressure will build into the area today and settle overhead tonight. Low level cold air advection will result in afternoon temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees cooler compared to high temperatures recorded on Monday. Subsidence associated with the high will yield sunny skies. Surface winds out of the north or northeast will initially be on the breezy side to start the day with occasional gusts 13-18kts probable through mid day. Tonight, with the sfc high overhead, expect clear skies and near calm sfc winds. This will set the stage for excellent nocturnal cooling conditions, leading to overnight temps in the upper 30s- lower 40s with the coolest min temps over the north and west. Cannot rule out the possibility of isolated patches of light frost in vicinity of the Virginia border or near the Yadkin River valley south of the Triad, though potential appears too remote to mention in the forecast or to issue an advisory.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/... As of 305 AM Tuesday... Surface high over the region Wednesday moves east and offshore Wednesday night. The return southerly flow on the back side of the high will strengthen late Wednesday night as a sfc cold front associated with a s/w crossing the Great Lakes approaches. This low level flow will advect moisture into the lowest 10k ft of the atmosphere, leading to an increased probability of low-mid level cloudiness late Wednesday night. While clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night, the moisture layer and available lift appear too minimal to support any shower development through daybreak Thursday. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be comparable to high temps expected this afternoon, basically in the mid-upper 60s. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night and a light sly sfc wind will lead to overnight temps several degree warmer compared to tonight. Low temperatures Wednesday night in the 45-50 degree range. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 305 AM Tuesday... Shortwave energy will cross the Great Lakes Thursday and head toward the Northeast. The associated cold front will cross the area late Thursday/early Friday. Moisture will be sufficient to support showers, though best dynamics remain to the north and instability is limited. Winds will shift to NW behind the front, though no appreciable CAA will follow, resulting in little impact to temperatures. Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday and Saturday, then sink southward over the Gulf Coast Sunday as another shortwave crosses north of the area. Moisture return with this system is lacking and a dry frontal passage looks likely at this time. Normal to above normal temperatures expected through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 AM Tuesday... There is a high probability that VFR conditions will exist across central NC through Wednesday as high pressure builds into then settles over the area. North to northeast sfc winds will occasionally gust between 15-18kts between 13Z-18Z. This high will drift east late Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Southerly return flow will advect low level moisture, likely resulting in the formation of a low stratus deck and MVFR ceilings by early Thursday morning. A few showers will accompany the front late Thursday and Thursday night. Afterwards, high pressure and associated VFR conditions will return for Friday and Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Hartfield/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.