Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290759 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 358 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Several upper level disturbances will push ENE across our region this afternoon and tonight bringing a chance of thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to push SE across NC late Wed and Wed night, followed by weak high pressure Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 241 AM EDT Monday... ...Another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially along and SE of a line from Charlotte to Raleigh. The strong mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes is forecast to finally weaken through Tuesday. However, the residual strong WSW flow aloft will remain in place this afternoon and evening. Several upper level disturbances, one of which may be an MCV late afternoon and evening, will track from the Tennessee Valley ENE across our region. This should combine with a nearly stationary surface trough to enhance the chance of thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the evening. Several models are suggesting that areas from CLT to RDU to RWI (and points south and east) will have the best chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. With dew points expected between 65-70 and highs to reach 85-90, MLcapes on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/KG are forecast. This strong heating along with the boost of lift from any approaching disturbance in the mid level 40-45 kt flow should result in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may grow into severe storms as they move into the higher instability in the south and east. The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, with a secondary hazard of large hail to 1 inch. Of course, frequent CG lightning always poses a hazard. We will continue to advertise 40- 50 POP in these areas, with a lesser chance 20-30 POP in the NW Piedmont Triad region. Convection should gradually diminish by late evening. Lows generally in the 60s expected (60-65 north and 65-70 SE). && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Monday... ...Lower chance of showers/storms as moisture shifts toward the coast. Tuesday and Tuesday night: As the mid/upper trough lifts out, the main surface boundary/trough will drift SE closer to the coast Tuesday. This being a main focus for scattered storms, it will mean the highest chance of showers/storms will shift toward the coast, with limited, if any activity expected over the western areas. Some drier air will mix down from the mid levels and weak high pressure over the Appalachians will bring some drying in the low levels into the Piedmont. All this suggests a low chance of showers/storms, mainly over the Coastal Plain Tuesday afternoon/early evening, with only isolated activity elsewhere. Partly sunny skies are expected over the Piedmont, with a bit lower temperatures and humidities from previous days. Dew points should fall into the upper 50s over the NW Piedmont, but range into the upper 60s SE. Actual highs are expected in the lower to mid 80s NW, ranging into the upper 80s SE. QPF of 0.25 or less expected, generally along and east of I-95. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60s, except some upper 50s NW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Monday... Medium range model guidance continue to advertise a weak cold front/surface trough moving across central NC late Wednesday into Wednesday night as the main mid level trough axis swings through the area. This will lead to a late day/evening chance/slight chance of seeing some showers and storms. High temps in advance of the front should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few locations toughing 90 across the south. Weak high pressure will move across the area on Thursday, before a moist southerly return flow develops on Friday. Mid/upper level flow will amplify again across the Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., helping to drive a cold front south and eastward into the area late Saturday into Sunday. This will result in above normal chances for precip and a decrease in high temps. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 122 AM EDT Monday... 24-HR TAF Period: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm at any TAF site, mainly between 20Z/today and 03Z/Tuesday. Any shower or storm would mostly likely impact the TAF site for 45 minutes or less and bring MVFR CIGS and IFR to MVFR VSBYS during that brief time. Looking ahead: Aside from a potential for an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon/evening hours each day, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD/CBL AVIATION...Badgett

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