Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061150 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 650 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY... A COLD DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE PAST DAY. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE... THIS MORNINGS READINGS WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES FOR MID-WINTER (MID TO UPPER 20S). SUNSHINE WILL BE BRIGHT AND DOMINATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 IN MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY SUNDAY OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM AT THE CURRENT TIME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE REGION THAT IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WE WILL START THAT TREND AS WELL WHICH WILL INDICATE EVEN MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NIL POP TO LIKELY POP FROM NW TO SE AND ALSO LOWER THE POP SOMEWHAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FROM FAY TO GSB AND SE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR A NARROW WINDOW ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SE ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT SUGGEST A 50/50 CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. THE WEB BULB FORECASTS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32 IN THE SE... BUT FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ELSEWHERE (28-32). WE WILL TREND AGAIN TOWARD SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR SE LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE 0.2 OR LESS IN OUR FAR SE... WITH TRACE POSSIBLE TO KSOP TO KRDU TO KRWI ON THE NW EDGE OF THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE LIKELY... TO CHANCE... TO SLIGHT CHANCE... TO NIL POP... WILL EXIST FROM KFAY TO KRDU... WITH NIL POP WEST AND NORTH OF RDU FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE AROUND FAY TO GSB. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... ...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEK... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...CARVING OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION...WITH THE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NC-VA AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INVOF THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE-OVER TO OR MIX WITH SOME WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20SNW TO LOWER 30S SE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. BUT THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP(H5 ANOMALIES 3 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)UPPER TROUGH. WITH H8 TEMPS OF -10 TO -15C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1260-1270M...40 TO 50 METERS BELOW NORMAL...DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. JUST AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DIGGING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AFFECTS OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE MAINLY EASTERN TAF SITES (FAY AND RWI) WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE MON... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE TUE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BADGETT

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