Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 231548 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY... SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT. FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF (DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY.. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY ...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY UNNOTICED. THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY... FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST- MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.