Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171741 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the region late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... A 1030mb surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States will result in a picturesque Autumn day across central NC today. Aside from some patchy thin jet streak cirrus across eastern NC, expect abundant sunshine with a steady northerly breeze of 6 to 10 kts, that will occasionally gust into the lower teens. Highs today will range from near 62 across the northern Piedmont near the VA border to 67 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Clear skies and decoupling winds will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few of the typically colder locations to the west of U.S. route 1 could have lows in the 35 to 38 range which may result in some patchy short-lived frost. Will include a mention of frost in the HWO but not issue an advisory due to the isolated nature of the frost and low confidence.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday... Basically a temperature forecast with gradual airmass moderation as center of surface high shifts east from the lee of the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning to off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Wednesday afternoon/evening. Highs Wednesday a good 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the area late Wednesday night may produce some patchy thin cirrus, but otherwise prove to be inconsequential. Lows 40 to 48.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... Surface high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather late week into the weekend. The surface high is forecast to shift offshore by late Saturday into Sunday. Given this and a mid level ridge building over the area, expect generally clear/sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging will slowly shift to the east of the area during the weekend. This combined with surface high pressure moving offshore will lead to slowly increasing cloud cover during the weekend. The next surface front is expected to approach the area late weekend into Monday, with increasing chances of showers and isolated storms by Monday. High temps will continue a moderating trend late week, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. High temps will be similar for the weekend into early next week (though highs on Monday will be dependent on precip/timing of the next system), generally in the 70s, with perhaps a few locations making it into the low 80s. Low temps in the 40s to stat the period will moderate into the 50s, to near 60 by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period as cool dry surface high pressure settles over the region. N-NELY winds of 6 to 12 kts will decouple this evening becoming light to calm. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...With the exception for some predawn morning fog/stratus across eastern terminals Thursday morning, continued surface high pressure over the region will result in dry VFR conditions through the weekend.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...CBL

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