Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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011 FXUS62 KRAH 230906 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 405 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will again build over our region today and Friday bringing near record warmth for late February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM THURSDAY... Our region was essentially left out of the light rains of Wednesday that occurred over the western and northern part of NC. The Triad cities of Winston-Salem and Greensboro were brushed with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. However, it was just to the NW over the Foothills where there was enough rain for a stronger In-Situ Damming situation creating dense fog late yesterday and this morning. It is still unclear if widespread dense fog will develop into our Triad communities this morning. The clearing aloft over top the moist and mild ground points toward dense fog. However, again it only rained a few hundredths over our NW counties, suggesting the ground may not be moist enough (as it is over Surry/Yadkin/Iredell Counties) for the development of widespread dense (less than 1/4 mile) visibilities. Given the current observations, we will hold off on an Advisory, but may issue a Special Statement if needed before the main morning rush. Otherwise, stratus and fog along with the high clouds will clear out today. This will allow for a mostly sunny afternoon. Near record warmth today (see climate section below) in the NW, where highs are projected to reach the lower 70s. Readings elsewhere should be well into the 70s. The increase in dew points and the lack of wind should help keep temperatures from warming into the 80 degree range, under the strengthening upper high. Tonight - lack of a moist ground should lead to less than model forecast of fog and stratus. However, warm overnight lows and dew points well above average in the upper 40s and 50s certainly argue for some status and fog. Mixed signals - so we will trend the forecast toward less status given the dry ground. Lows 48-55. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND Friday NIGHT/... As of 230 AM THURSDAY... Near record daily warmth appears to be the theme. Expect the strong ridging and sinking air to combine with warm thicknesses to send temperatures soaring. The lack of a dry west breeze and low dew points should help temper the warmth somewhat. However, the dew points in the 50s will make it feel most like very early May! Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW. Light surface winds from the SE-S expected to be less than 10 mph. Another warm night with dew points in the 50s expected Friday night. Partly cloudy skies expected with lows near record high mins. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A strong trailing cold front is expected to move across central NC on Saturday. The main surface low with the system and best dynamic will lifts from the central Plains Thursday night into the Great Lakes region on Saturday as the associated mid level trough takes on a bit of a negative tilt. The best chance for convection along the trailing front is expected to be to the north of central NC, with the main combo of dynamic and moisture passing well to the north of the area. Nonetheless, we could see some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, primarily across the northern portions of central NC. Given the impressive deep shear if we are able to get some convection develop along/in advance of the front the strongest storms would pose a damaging wind threat. However, with little to no deep convection expected across central NC at this time on Saturday SPC has keep any severe potential to the north of the area in the day 3 outlook. Regardless, expect breezy/windy conditions, with wind gusts of up to 25 to 35 mph possible. High temps are expected to be in the 70s, with possibly a few 80s in the far south and east. Dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday morning as surface high pressure moves across the area. This should result in a return to more seasonal temps, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves offshore. However, with deep southwesterly flow aloft we will likely see some s/w disturbances track across the area early to mid next week, yielding increasing chances for showers. The next main front will remain to the west of the area through the forecast period though. This should result in a warming trend with highs the 60s and 70s. Will keep pops low during this period though, until medium range model guidance comes into better agreement on the timing of such s/w disturbances mentioned above. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1255 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A lingering CAD air mass over the Northwest Piedmont will lead to MVFR/IFR cigs and visbys falling into the LIFR range with very low stratus and/or fog early this morning, continuing through mid to late morning at KGSO/KINT. Elsewhere, expect mainly VFR conditions will continue with good amount of mid and high clouds expected, as a weak mid level trough slowly moves across the area. The main shield of mid and high clouds will shift eastward across the area this morning as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts eastward. Winds are expected to remain calm to light and variable this morning, with a light S to SE wind expected today into the evening. Outlook: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect predominately VFR conditions through early next week. The exception will be a very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will become breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the west, with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 23rd February 24th February 25th GSO 73/1980 79/1982 81/1930 RDU 79/1980 81/1982 82/1930 FAY 80/1922 83/1930 85/1930 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BSD CLIMATE...RAH

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