Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300136 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 936 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will hold over the Ohio Valley through Friday, as a surface front holds along the North Carolina Foothills. The upper low will weaken and drift north over lower Michigan through the weekend, as the surface front slowly dissipates over central North Carolina. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 925 PM Thursday... The Flash Flood Watch will be canceled. The significant rain chances have essentially lowered enough for our region that we can allow the watch to be canceled. Additional scattered storms are expected Friday, but only isolated to widely scattered showers are now anticipated overnight. Low level stability over eastern NC essentially led to a mostly dry afternoon and evening. Water vapor satellite data indicted deep moisture was confined to eastern NC, with a dry slot noted sweeping from GA into SC and southwest NC. A surface trough was located over the foothills where scattered thunderstorms were still ongoing just to our west from Hickory to Mount Airy at mid-evening. There have been isolated thunderstorms over our SW Piedmont but these have weakened in the past hour around Albemarle and High Rock. The mid/upper level low was still located over the Ohio Valley with a general SE flow from the Atlantic across NC. It appears that stratus and fog will be likely overnight with the moist advection from off the Atlantic. This stability will also aid in keeping thunderstorm chances limited to areas closer to the upper low to our NW. The deep moisture plume flowing over areas along and east of I- 95 may lead to some light showers but additional heavy rain overnight is not expected. Lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Thursday... The large upper low will wobble and drift slowly northward over IN during this period, while weak surface low pressure holds over the far western Piedmont along the increasingly diffuse north-south oriented surface front. This front will weaken further as it eases just a bit eastward into central NC through the day, with the greatest PW over the eastern fringe of the CWA and over coastal sections. The bulk of the DPVA pivoting around the mid level low appears to hold just to our west, while the better upper divergence shifts just to our north and NW, so we should see a lessening of both deep moisture and of large scale forcing for ascent. Will maintain high chance pops across the far N and NE trending to slight chance pops over the SW, decreasing after nightfall. Expect highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s, followed by lows in the mid 50s west to mid 60s east. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... The persistent upper low over the Tenn Valley will finally lift north into the Great Lakes and weaken, as a trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a general trend toward higher heights over the eastern U.S, a surface high pressure ridge down the East Coast and temps near at or just slightly above. Before the low fully departs the region, some diurnal convection is possible across the far south/east Saturday and Sunday given the continued presence of the front that sinks over the area this weekend, but with diminishing in coverage with each day. Most of the long term focus is with the uncertainty in the track of what is currently Hurricane Matthew over in the Central Carribean. The official NHC track brings Matthew north across the Bahamas early next week in response to an upper trough cross the Gulf Coast region. This is still rather uncertain at day 7, however, and quite likely to change in the coming backs. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 840 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A Warm moist air mass is expected to remain across the area tonight as a slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west, moving into the area on Friday. Thus, IFR to LIFR cigs and/or visbys are expected to develop again tonight across the entire area. Cigs and visbys will slowly lift Friday morning, with VFR conditions generally expected by 15-18Z or so (though it is possible for some sites across the east to linger in the MVFR category into the mid/late afternoon hours). Expect generally dry conditions overnight, however, an isolated shower/storm or two can`t be ruled out. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible again on Friday, with the best coverage expected across the eastern TAF sites. However, confidence is low enough to not include any mention of convection in the TAFS at this time. Outlook: Isolated showers and storms are expected mainly across eastern portions of the area into the early Friday evening as a surface front shifts slowly eastward across central NC. This front will weaken and dissipate heading into the weekend, allowing the better rain chances to shift to our east. Except for a potential for MVFR or IFR fog/stratus at RWI early Sat morning, otherwise VFR conditions will dominate through Tue with low rain chances.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...BS AVIATION...BD/Hartfield

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