Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190004 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 705 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 705 PM Saturday... Minor adjustment made to the timing of PoPs across central NC based on observed radar trends and how this is verifying compared to the HRRR and convective allowing models presentation. Strong cold front currently crossing the lower OH Valley and the Tennessee Valley with a band of convection stretching from eastern Great Lakes southwestward into Mississippi. This front being propelled east-se by a s/w crossing the Great Lake,s and projected to lift northeast into southern New England. Since bulk of upper support lifting well north of our region, better forcing will be found with the low level front. However, this front will be encountering an atmosphere lacking moisture and instability compared to the air mass its currently crossing. Thus, expect the band of convection to gradually weaken in intensity as it crosses the mountains late this evening, and reach the Triad region after midnight (possibly closer to 2 AM). The increasing cloud cover and a steady breezy sly wind will cause evening temperatures to hold steady or possibly slowly rise through midnight-2 AM. The cold front and the narrow band of showers accompanying it should exit our coastal plain counties by sunrise. Clearing skies will occur over the NW piedmont by 4-5 AM, possibly reaching the highway 1 corridor by sunrise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM Saturday... Skies will be clear quickly early Sunday morning. The warm start to the day will partly offset the CAA. However, highs will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s NW to SE. NW winds at 10-20 mph are expected with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will be diminishing Sunday evening and night. Clear skies will bring lows in the lower to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the northern Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Saturday... Mid level ridging will keep the area rain-free for Monday into early part of Tuesday. From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some rain to the local area. Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off the southeast coast. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in with any rainfall. A rather flat west to east flow develops Friday night and Saturday with dry and seasonable weather for central North Carolina. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will dominate at all central NC sites well into the evening. The only issue will be the SW winds at 15-20kt, with gusts to 30-35 kts through 06z/Sunday. Due to the well mixed conditions and winds to the surface to 35kt, low level wind shear is not expected at this time. After 04z/tonight expect a band of light showers with possible MVFR CIGS and VSBYS will move east across the region through 10z. Only a period of 2-3 hours of light showers are expected at any TAF location. Once the showers move through, winds will decrease to 10 to 15kt from the west, with gusts decreasing to 20kt. A return to VFR conditions will occur quickly after 10z/Sunday. WNW winds at 10-20kt will occasionally gust to 25kt Sunday. Winds will become light Sunday evening. Looking beyond 18z Sun: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure moves over the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklinton AVIATION...Badgett

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