Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A resultant moist southwesterly flow will bring very humid conditions into Saturday. Low pressure is forecast to track over the central Appalachians eastward across VA on Friday night and Saturday morning. The trailing cold front will move through central NC late Saturday or Saturday night, likely stalling over the SE Coastal Plain. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Thursday... The influx of deep moisture(PWATS 2.0-2.25")and upper vort impulses between the surface high located over Bermuda and what is now T.D. Cindy over east TX/west LA will support scattered showers into the overnight hours, along with a few thunderstorms across the Sandhills this afternoon, where some tempered insolated has allowed weak to moderate instability(500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) to develop. By ~ 06z, the brunt of disturbances look to pass to north/northeast of the area with little in the way of lift within the very moist airmass. Otherwise, expect low stratus again with balmy lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Thursday... There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Models continue to speed up the remnants of Cindy, with the timing of closest approach to NW NC expected Friday night and early Saturday tracking just to our west and north. The system`s warm front is expected to lift into VA early Friday, taking the chance of morning showers/storms northward out of our region. Then Friday is expected to become partly sunny in the warm sector with breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower to mid 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. More widespread convection may affect the Triad late day or Friday evening, with details dependent on many variables including the eventual track/strength of the remnants of Cindy Friday night. There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... Model guidance is coming into better agreement showing the remnants of Cindy begin absorbed in an approaching cold front Saturday morning, with the main remaining circulation associated with Cindy passing to the north of central NC Saturday afternoon across the Mid- Atlantic region. The trailing cold front is expected to move across the area on Saturday, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible on Saturday, with any isolated strong to severe storm limited to eastern and southern portions of our area. The main heavy rain threat is now expected to pass to the north of the area, in the vicinity of the circulation. In addition to any convection, we may see some gusty winds Saturday morning across the area (especially across eastern portions of the area) as the strong low level jet shifts across the region. High temps Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry weather is now generally expected for a large portion of the area for the rest of the weekend, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast area. High temps behind the weak cold front area expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 100 PM Thursday... Patchy light rain and predominantly MVFR ceilings will spread from the southwest progressively east over central NC this afternoon. Conditions will persist into early tonight, with ceilings lowering to IFR after midnight through 12-13Z tomorrow morning, with widespread light rain or drizzle. Southwest winds around 6 knots overnight will prevent dense fog from forming, although MVFR 3-5 miles are possible in the 08-13Z time frame. Drying from the south will begin to lift conditions across the south by 15Z, with potential for MVF ceilings to hang around through 18Z in the north. Looking ahead beyond 18Z Friday... another period of late night stratus is expected to bring IFR CIGS again Friday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected Fri-Sun, with a chance of MVFR conditions mainly during the afternoon and evening Friday due to a shower or thunderstorm. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett/mlm

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