Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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536 FXUS62 KRAH 200731 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 231 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region tonight, then move offshore on Tuesday. A low pressure system will cross to our south on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1059 PM Sunday... Clear skies at sunset noted from the Mississippi Valley eastward to well off in the western Atlantic. The light NW flow over central NC continued to diminish. Nearly calm conditions are expected the rest of the overnight. Temperatures late evening were around 50 NW ranging to 60 SE. Clear skies expected overnight with lows very mild, mostly in the lower to mid 40s, except for some upper 30s in the normally colder locations of the northern Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 150 PM Sunday... The center of a high pressure ridge will drift across southern Quebec during this time frame while nosing southward through central NC. Dry and deeply stable air will persist through Monday, yielding mostly sunny skies, with just a few high clouds within fast northwesterly upper flow. Thicknesses will start out a bit lower than in the last couple of mornings, particularly over the NE sections of the forecast area, beneath the heart of the ridge axis. But values will still be well above normal, supporting highs from the upper 60s NE to the mid 70s in the far southern CWA. As the ridge axis shifts to our east Mon night, resulting in a southeasterly and southerly low level flow into central NC, low level moisture will steadily advect into the area, with increasing moist upglide focused around 290K across the western CWA overnight. Will have increasing clouds Mon night, especially in the west, with the relatively cooler ridge lingering in the NE CWA. Expect lows from the upper 30s NE ranging to the mid to perhaps upper 40s in the western CWA. -GIH As of 254 PM Sunday...Tuesday will begin with the upper level ridge axis right overhead and a surface low pressure system over New England. Clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of a frontal system over the Mississippi Valley. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Monday... A closed low aloft will move east-southeast into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday (well south of the North Carolina). Meanwhile, the weak remnant northern stream trough will move over Central NC. There is a slight chance for light rain on Wednesday as the trough passes overhead. However, accumulations should be minimal as the best moisture will be well south of the area. At the surface, the southerly return flow will increase over Central NC on Wednesday, resulting advection of warm, moist air into the region. A moderating temperature trend is expected through Friday night. With the continued surge of warm air and the frontal passage not expected until the weekend, temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday night (highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, increasing into the upper 70s by Friday. Lows will follow a similar trend, low to mid 50s Wednesday night into the mid to upper 50s by Friday night). The models continue to differ with respect to rain chances through this part of the forecast, though a slight chance for rain cannot be ruled out, mainly across the west, Thursday through Friday. The best chance for any significant rainfall will come ahead of the fropa late Friday night through Saturday. The cold front is expected to move through Central NC on late Saturday. Cold air will advect in behind the front for Saturday night into Sunday as the surface high builds over/moves through the region. Expect a dry forecast on Sunday given the current timing of the front. Temperatures behind the front will be much closer to, but still slightly above, normal.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1225 AM Monday... There is a high likelihood of VFR conditions across central NC through 06Z Tuesday. An area of high pressure at the surface will build in from the north today. This system will maintain mostly clear skies and light surface winds through tonight. With high pressure to our north-northeast later tonight, a low level ely flow will develop. This flow will transport moisture off the Atlantic, and into the Piedmont. As the moisture meets the upslope region of the foothills and the higher terrain of western NC, areas of stratus will develop. This stratus layer may spread into the western Piedmont after 06Z Tuesday, increasing the risk for sub VFR ceilings. The risk for sub VFR ceilings appear higher late Tues day night into Wednesday morning. There will be a chance for sub VFR ceilings Wednesday through Friday across central NC as a moderately moist air mass and an unsettled weather pattern is expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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