


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --009 FXUS62 KRAH 011047 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Appalachians today, then stall out across the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... A cold front will extend from Lake Ontario southwest into Kentucky and arc into Texas Tuesday morning. While previous forecasts indicated that the front would likely sink south into North Carolina and bring widespread rain, models are now indicating that the front will move to the southeast much more slowly, likely not even entering North Carolina by Wednesday morning. However, a surface trough in advance of the front, in addition to an upper trough that will move into North Carolina by Wednesday morning, will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Although scattered convection is expected east of US-1 during the daytime, the majority of rainfall will fall to the west of US-1 during the day, with likely showers and thunderstorms only extending as far east as I-95 overnight. The Storm Prediction Center keeps the bulk of the area under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather today, with the primary threat coming from damaging winds. Although instability is likely to be between 1000-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear will be minimal across North Carolina, which will be a hindrance to organizing severe storms. Although the new WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has not been released yet, the Monday afternoon issuance had most of the area to the west of I-95 in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The heaviest rainfall rates would likely occur during the evening. The additional cloud cover should result in highs being a few degrees cooler than the last several days, although highs will still primarily be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. There will be minimal changes to low temperature forecasts, with values in the upper 60s and lower/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 212 AM Tuesday... Scattered to numerous showers and tstms will move across central and eastern NC during this period as the upper short wave trough axis moves across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. While instability may be limited due to extensive cloud coverage, embedded heavier downpours may exist with the strongest cells which could result in an isold marginal flash flood threat, as noted in WPC`s marginal ERO across the eastern portion of the state on Wednesday. The back edge of scattered shower/tstm activity will move east of I-95 by late in the afternoon and completely east of our CWA by mid-evening hours. Temps will be impacted due to clouds and precip, so a brief break from the 90s temps that we`ve been seeing, with highs on Wednesday in the 80s. Lows Wednesday night in the upper 60s NW and 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 212 AM Tuesday... Subsidence and drier air will move in Thursday behind the departing trough with relatively drier air lingering through at least Saturday, thus look for below-climo daily pops for the Thursday through Saturday period, if not completely dry weather all three days. Temps will still be above normal those three days, but only by a dew degrees. Thereafter, the GFS and ECWMF with their recent runs are hinting at some tropical development along the old remnant boundary off the SE Coast (the boundary that will move through our area on Wednesday) late this weekend. Confidence in this feature is fairly low at this moment given the run-to-run inconsistency, so for now will simply feature daily pops slowly edging back up closer to climo values as we head through the late-weekend and early next week period, and will closely monitor model trends. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 645 AM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: While at 06Z it appeared that the most likely location to develop MVFR stratus was FAY, the stratus has instead developed at INT/GSO. This should last into mid-morning, and still cannot rule out the other terminals also developing some low clouds. All locations should be VFR by late morning and continue through much of the afternoon. Recent model guidance continues to suggest a slower arrival of precipitation, and the forecast in the 12Z TAF may still remain too fast. Prevailing showers are expected at INT/GSO/RDU by the evening, although coverage should remain scattered at RWI/FAY overnight. However, there is high confidence that IFR ceilings will overspread the region from northwest to southeast after midnight, and LIFR ceilings are also possible. Outlook: Widespread showers/storms will continue Wednesday, with restrictions expected. Precipitation could linger at RDU/RWI/FAY Wednesday night into Thursday, with a dry forecast into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Green