Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 081549 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1045 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. -22 TONIGHT... AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 227 AM MONDAY... BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 AM MONDAY... ...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8 PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 700 AM MONDAY... FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BADGETT

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