Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010457 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY... A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY- CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS 69-72. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY... THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...WSS

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