Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191631 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1125 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the coast Monday night. Low pressure may develop off the Florida coast Tuesday, and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1125 AM Sunday... Skies were sunny across most of NC outside of the Appalachian Mountains late morning. 1028 MB surface high pressure was centered over Texas, with a strong CAA pattern with NW flow over the eastern third of the United States. The high pressure is forecast to move ENE to a position over the southern Appalachians of TN/NC/GA by late tonight. Temperatures at late morning ranged from the lower 50s in the Triad cities to 60 degrees at Laurinburg in the Sandhills. NW winds at 10-15 mph were observed. Expect the NW breeze at 10-20 mph to be persistent this afternoon finally reducing to less than 10 mph by around sunset. Highs are forecast to rise only a degree or two from the late morning readings given the increasing CAA/DAA partially offset by downslope affects and nearly 100 percent sunshine. Clear skies and diminishing breezes are expected tonight as the surface high center draws closer. Lows should be closer to the cooler or even coolest EC and NAM statistical guidance in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 155 AM Sunday... Quiet weather likely. The high pressure will drift across the Mid South and Carolinas through Mon afternoon before tracking off the Carolina coast Mon night. A dry and subsiding column and no low level moisture return potential will translate into sunny skies Mon. Low level thicknesses will be 25-30 m below normal early but will rise nicely through the day with waning cold air advection. Highs 53- 58. A gradually amplifying mid level trough extending through the central CONUS and shifting into the Miss Valley will bring increasing high clouds into NC from west to east Mon night, so will have a trend to fair or partly cloudy skies overnight. Expect milder lows of 30-35. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Sunday... Tuesday will be mild as surface high pressure sites offshore and brings southerly return flow and warm air advection into the area. A dry forecast is expected for much of the day but a few showers could begin to move into the eastern portion of the forecast area as a weak low pressure system moves up the Carolina coast. This system will continue to develop on Wednesday but will remain offshore and there will only be an outside chance of showers in the eastern counties. Temperatures during this time frame in the mid 50s in the NW Piedmont to mid 60s in the southeast. Wednesday night a dry cold front will move through the area cooling off temperatures into the low to middle 30s. For Thanksgiving Day, looking like a mostly dry forecast for many but a second low pressure system moving up the coast will keep things a little more uncertain for areas mainly east of I-95. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the system passes by to the east. Cooler high temperatures in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Continental high pressure will then take over for the rest of the week, keeping the forecast dry with temperatures gradually rising through the 50s back in to the low 60s across the south by Sunday afternoon with upper 50s elsewhere.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 635 AM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours across central NC. The brief MVFR conditions in showers which impacted the area overnight have moved east of all TAF sites, and cigs have returned to VFR or have cleared out. These showers were ahead of a cold front which is now exiting far eastern portions of central NC. Surface winds have shifted around to northwesterly, and while the gust magnitudes have gone down from earlier speeds, we will still see sustained winds of 9-14 kts with sporadic gusts to 18-25 kts through this afternoon. Expect clear skies areawide after 14z, lasting through the end of the TAF valid period, with gusty winds from the NW this afternoon diminishing after nightfall. Looking beyond 12z Mon, VFR conditions are likely through Tue as high pressure dominates at the surface. MVFR cigs are possible Tue night as low level moisture streams up and over a frontal zone sitting along the NC coast. Low pressure tracking NE along this front through Wed may bring sub-VFR conditions to RWI/FAY, while locations further inland are more likely to stay VFR. VFR conditions are likely areawide Thanksgiving Day as cool high pressure noses into central NC from the NW and the frontal zone shifts further SE away from NC. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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