Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171921 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 321 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region late today, bringing cooler air for the beginning of next week, including freeze potential Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Sunday... Update: The morning forecast update included increasing PoPs across portions of the Sandhills and Southern Coastal plain this afternoon and evening as the cold front sweeps across the region late tonight early tomorrow. Otherwise forecast was on track for increased cloud coverage through the day with light W then SW winds before the cold front, then becoming N to NW winds after it passes. Gusts are expected to increase late tonight immediately behind the front of 15 to 20 mph then settling down as the cold front moves offshore by mid morning Monday. Highs today expected to be in the upper 60s NW to low 70s SE. As of 352 AM Sunday... Zonal flow over central NC was evident on water vapor imagery this morning. Further north, an upper trough was digging into the upper Midwest. Simultaneously, weak vorticity perturbations embedded within a developing shortwave have generated convection from central TX northeastward through AR. At the sfc, a weak area of low pressure was located near Cape Lookout, with a boundary extending just offshore and south through the Gulf of Mexico. Further northeast, a 1014 mb high anchored off Cape Cod was extending light ssely flow across central NC ahead of a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley. Residual stratus will quickly lift this morning, but additional mid to level cloudiness will blanket the sky as the aforementioned shortwave over the deep south moves through the southeast today. Highs will remain a bit above average again today in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A sfc low associated with the shortwave over TX this morning will push east across the Gulf of Mexico today and scoot by just to our south overnight. Rain chances for our area appear to be quite low today given that 1) the deeper moisture will pool to our south and 2) the better upper and sfc forcing will remain well to our north. Still can`t rule out a few passing showers across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, but overall expecting a low QPF event. The cold front currently over the Ohio Valley will pass through our area tonight. Swly flow ahead of the cold front may induce some gusts of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon/evening. Additionally, good mixing behind the front will likely support periods of nwly gustiness with frontal passage through early Monday morning. CAA should lag the front, allowing overnight lows to remain in the lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday... Cooler and cloudy conditions are expected Monday behind tonight`s front... Surface high pressure will build east from the central Plains Monday to across the Deep South by Monday night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, and northwesterly wind gust to 20 mph, will make fore a more chilly day compared to recent high temperatures. Highs in the mid-50s to low 60s will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than Sunday, and around 5 degrees below normal. A deep trough will dig SE across the region Monday night, maintaining breezy northwesterly flow and cold air advection through early Monday night. The trough may be able to tap into lingering moisture across the southern Coastal Plain to generate a shower or two Monday evening, then dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. The cold air surging into the region Monday night will lower temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with many areas dipping to near or just below freezing. The southern half of the region has begun the growing season, and the Freeze Watch remains in effect for the southern Piedmont and the western Sandhills for Monday night. The remaining areas of the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain may need a frost advisory.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 320 PM Sunday... High pressure should be centered over Louisiana Tuesday morning and slowly drift to the east through the week. Cold advection will continue with westerly flow, and Tuesday should have the coldest highs out of the next seven days, with values in the 50s. As the Gulf Coast high shifts to the east, the wind should take on a southerly component, allowing warmer temperatures to move into the region. Tuesday night`s temperatures should be warmer than Monday night`s temperatures everywhere, with lows ranging from 35 to 43, so an additional night of frost/freeze headlines appears unlikely. Highs should moderate nicely into the 60s and low 70s on Wednesday before a wind shift drops highs by about 5 degrees on Thursday. Model solutions diverge for the weekend. While both the GFS and ECMWF (along with their respective ensembles) show a low developing over the Gulf of Mexico, crossing Florida, and moving up the Carolina coast, the models have shown different timing, with the GFS faster with the arrival of precipitation than the ECMWF. Considering the NBM timing has been closer to the GFS/GEFS timing, have gone close to that through the extended forecast. This brings chance pops to the forecast for Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, with the surface low near the NC/SC border Saturday morning, and slight chance pops for Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile a quick look at the 12Z ECMWF shows the model trending quicker with the precipitation, with timing closer to the GFS family but the low still about 12 hours slower than the GFS. Highs through the weekend should be near normal, mostly in the 60s, with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Sunday... Mid and high clouds will continue to stream across the region ahead of the incoming cold front from the west. Widespread VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon are expected to continue through the 18z TAF period. Isolated areas of light rain across the Sandhills later this evening and overnight could be possible therefore have VCSH at KFAY between 5z and 12z Monday morning. Winds this afternoon have been mainly W to NW, but expected to take a turn as the front moves through to N to NW overnight and tomorrow. Occasional surface gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible this afternoon ahead of the front then again early Monday morning as the cold front moves out of the region. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the outlook period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NCZ073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren/Luchetti NEAR TERM...CA/Luchetti SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...CA

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