Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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241 FXUS62 KRAH 090755 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN) EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM MONDAY... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON. WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW- MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY... AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10- 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH

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