Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 031350 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 950 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... FROM THE SANDHILLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS... THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE STILL BISECTING CENTRAL NC... WITH THE NOTABLY MORE SOUPY AIR TO ITS SW... AS NOTED BY BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWING BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ALL BUT THE SE CWA. THE PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP... AND ITS DISSIPATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA... UNTIL CUMULUS FORMATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXIT OF ONE LOOSELY ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NE OVER AND OFF THE SRN OUTER BANKS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVE LULL IN POPS BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUICKLY SUPPLANTED BY ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING E THEN NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LITTLE MORE THAN MARGINAL TO BRIEFLY MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON... LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE... AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WELL AS 20-25 KTS. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SE CWA TODAY. THESE CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT BUT NOT DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY GIVEN THE MOIST COLUMN AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHS OF 87-94... LOWEST IN THE FAR SE (CLINTON/MT OLIVE) AND WARMEST IN THE SW. LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK FITTING... 68-74... WITH NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM MONDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN LARGELY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST DRIFTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL NEAR THE NC/VA STATE BORDER BY WED MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. AND ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM FROM ACTIVITY THAT COULD EITHER DEVELOP IN-SITU INVOF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR THAT WILL INITIATE UPSTREAM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES...SO DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES AT THIS LATITUDE ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MODEST...BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20 KTS - SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RISE ABOUT 5-10 METERS PER A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AREA- WIDE...WITH A FEW 97-98 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE FROM AFP TO FAY. LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO 75. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 240 AM MONDAY... REALLY NO CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. PRIOR SIMULATIONS HAD SHOWED THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH STILL THERE...HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND MAY BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MODELS ARE HONING IN ON A SHORTWAVE ON EARLY FRIDAY TO BE THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN THE GFS SIMULATION...THE ECMWF MODEL IS WRAPPING IT UP INTO QUITE A STRONG LOW THAT PASSES ACROSS VIRGINIA BEFORE EXITING OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. DIURNAL TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE OFF WITH THE BEST SHEAR ARRIVING PRIOR TO THE BEST INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD HELP CUT BACK SEVERE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...TIMING HAS CHANGED SO MUCH WITH THE SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MODELS THAT TO THINK THIS RUN IS ACCURATE WITHIN 6-12 HOURS WOULD BE NAIVE SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE TIMING LINES UP IN LATER RUNS. IF SUCCESSIVE RUNS COME IN A LITTLE LATER AND THE ECMWF IS RIGHT WITH THE INTENSITY...THEN SEVERE CHANCES COULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE WEEKEND...BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO FRIDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING WEAK ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT AND VA BORDER COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE ACTIVITY NOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS IT EMERGES OF OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND COULD BE OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO THREATEN ANY OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD IN THE MID 90S BUT CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 745 AM MONDAY... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FL THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR-MVFR RANGE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LONGEST DURATION AT FAY. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BETWEEN 13-15Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF CUMULUS CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500- 6000 FT ARE APT CONTINUE AT EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT EASTERN SITES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RELATIVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER FL WILL RESULT IN A MEDIUM CHANCE...40-50 PERCENT...OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.