Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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264 FXUS62 KRAH 201621 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1115 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north over the region today. A backdoor cold front will move southward into the area Thursday evening into Thursday night. Otherwise, record warm with associated with a strong upper level high pressure over the region is expected mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Tuesday... ...Dense Fog Advisory will be canceled by 1130 AM... It appears that we will be able to rid the region of the dense fog in the next our or so, around noon. Conditions are improving from the south, with clearing now observed as far north as Fort Bragg, Benson, and Wilson. Temperatures were responding in the SE where late morning readings were already in the lower 70s. How about the dew points observed at Goldsboro, Clinton, and Kinston (70 degrees). This has to be a record for so early in the season to record 70 degree dew points. Back to the NW in the stable, cool dome of residual Cold Air Damming (CAD), the low overcast and fog is slowly lifting. Visibility`s were coming up above the 1/4 mile threshold for the dense fog advisory. Expect the fog to lift, but stratus to remain for much of the afternoon, especially in the Piedmont. We will trim back highs into the lower to mid 60s from Winston to Roxboro, and keep 70s in the south and east. It appears that the stratus will lower again tonight, especially over the Piedmont. Dense fog should not be an issue, but there still will be some patchy to even widespread fog with visibilities expected to fall to between 1/2 and 1 1/2 miles from RDU to GSO and INT overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy with daily record warm lows in the 57-62 range. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... High pressure remains anchored in place just off the coast on Wednesday and this should keep much of the forecast area dry for most of the day. To the west, a frontal zone with several disturbances tracking along it will stay along the Appalachians, but precipitation associated with this feature could impinge upon our northern and western borders late in the day but will likely remain west of the area. High temperatures will continue to march higher with mid 70s to 80 degrees expected throughout the forecast area. Mild temps once again for overnight lows, near 60 degrees. Another round of fog/low stratus is possible by early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Unseasonably warm/record temps are again expected on Thursday in advance of a backdoor cold front propelled by a 1040+ mb surface high building into the area from the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. However, the backdoor front should remain to the north/northeast of central NC during the heat of the afternoon on Thursday. This should yield high temps generally ranging from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south, with a small chance of showers (generally across northern portions of the area). The aforementioned backdoor front is expected to slowly shift southward into the area very late Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening, along with the potential for some showers across northern portions of the area. The cold front is expected to sink southward into the area on Thursday night, perhaps stalling/loosing steam across southern portions of the area, with the potential for some light rain/drizzle on the the cool stable side of the boundary. Thus, expect a large spread in high temps on Friday across the area, with a high bust potential on temps. How fast the front lifts back northward as a warm front on Friday into Friday night is still in question. For now, expect the a wide range of temps from north to the south across the area on Friday, with highs near 60 late in the day north to highs in the mid to upper 70s far south with the potential for some light rain and drizzle in the brief CAD airmass. Low temps on Saturday morning will be warm for this time of year, in the 50s. With the front north of the area by Saturday, warm air will flood the area for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to approach the area from the west on Saturday night and move into the area on Sunday afternoon/evening with increasing chances of some isolated to scattered showers (though any good dynamics with this system will lift well to the north of the area with the strong sub- tropical ridge off the Southeast U.S. allowing the track of the main surface low to pass well to the north of central NC). Expect highs in the 70s to near 80 for the weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s. High temps behind the front early next week still look to be above normal, generally in the 60s to near 70 with surface high pressure quickly moving across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF period: One half to one quarter mile dense fog continues across Central NC. A dense fog advisory is in place for all areas until noon today. Expect fog to remain in place at least through mid to late morning. Visibilities will improve after that but ceilings will remain low, coming up to potentially MVFR briefly before falling back to IFR and lower levels after 00z Wednesday. Winds will be out of the south southwest today at 5-10 kts with little gusting. Long term: A warm, moist weather pattern will promote chances for fog and low stratus the next several mornings. A cold air damming wedge could bring adverse conditions on Friday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Sunday and Sunday night. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH

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