Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010207 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY... LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE... AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION) A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY... SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK DURING THAT TIME. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...ELLIS

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