Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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690 FXUS62 KRAH 172337 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 735 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will hold over the region through the remainder of the week. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... A 1030mb surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States will result in a picturesque Autumn day across central NC today. Aside from some patchy thin jet streak cirrus across eastern NC, expect abundant sunshine with a steady northerly breeze of 6 to 10 kts, that will occasionally gust into the lower teens. Highs today will range from near 62 across the northern Piedmont near the VA border to 67 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Clear skies and decoupling winds will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few of the typically colder locations to the west of U.S. route 1 could have lows in the 35 to 38 range which may result in some patchy short-lived frost. Will include a mention of frost in the HWO but not issue an advisory due to the isolated nature of the frost and low confidence. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Basically a temperature forecast with gradual airmass moderation as center of surface high shifts east from the lee of the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning to off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Wednesday afternoon/evening. Highs Wednesday a good 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the area late Wednesday night may produce some patchy thin cirrus, but otherwise prove to be inconsequential. Lows 40 to 48. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM Tuesday... High pressure will dominate through the weekend, with a very gradual warming trend through the period. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps some lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. Mins will be mostly in the mid 40s Friday morning warming to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning. The high pressure will shift offshore and we have a favorable return flow setting up ahead of our next frontal passage. Timing will be a key player early next week, as an upper trof moving east across the southern Midwest will cut off over the gulf states, assisting in providing strong moisture advection ahead of associated surface cold front. The chance of showers will increase by later Monday, with even better chances on tap for Monday night into Tuesday. Slightly delayed timing would be beneficial, as it would allow us to build up stronger instability to invigorate convection ahead of the front on Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the mid and upper 70s, while Tuesday`s highs will be dependent on frontal passage...probably see 70s again, but could see cold air advection halt the morning warmup early in the northeast. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 735 PM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions persisting through the next 24 hours and beyond, as deep high pressure sitting over the region brings dry air and a lack of clouds. Winds will remain very light from the NE and E at speeds under 5 kts. Looking beyond 00z Thu, deep high pressure will hold over the area for several more days. VFR conditions will persist through Sunday, although FAY/RWI may see areas of sub-VFR fog for a few hours early Thu morning. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Hartfield

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