Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 130529 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. A fast moving upper level disturbance will move through the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... As of 950 PM Tuesday... ...Gusty winds through tonight with wind chill readings falling to the single digits and teens overnight.... The strong cold front has shifted to the east of the area this evening, with gusty northwesterly winds in its wake and mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be driven by the strong CAA. Expect lows tonight will generally range from the lower 20s NW to the upper 20s S/SE. Given the winds will remain somewhat gusty (15 to 25 mph range) even late tonight, expect we`ll see wind chill values dropping into the single digits across the far north/northeast by daybreak, with teens generally expected elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Wednesday night/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... The weather story for Wednesday will be continued cold temperatures, thanks to the cold airmass in the wake of today`s front. Low level thicknesses are progged to drop to around 1260m and 850mb temps down to -10 to -15C by sunrise Wednesday. Although both will gradually moderate during the day...resulting high temps will be held in the upper 30s north of the Hwy 64 corridor, and lower-mid 40s along and south of Hwy 64. Otherwise, the pattern will feature a transitory sfc ridge axis crossing the area and westerly flow aloft. Other than some high clouds in advance of the next mid level short wave, expect dry weather. The aforementioned short wave will cross the Appalachians early Wednesday evening then will quickly move across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions between 03-06Z Thu, before moving offshore overnight. Forecast soundings continue to show the 500-700mb layer becoming saturated Wednesday evening in advance of the short wave, mainly north and east of Raleigh. However, the airmass below 700mb is forecast to remain dry. That said, while the moisture and lift in that layer would suggest some light precip between 7 PM and Midnight, given the dry air below the cloudy layer, it would be difficult to get any more than just a few flurries with no impacts. Skies will clear out again after Midnight in the wake of the departing short wave, with lows from the mid 20s to around 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 PM Tuesday... Alternating periods of mild and chilly are expected Thursday into Sunday with the fast, mostly zonal flow aloft. Several mid/upper level waves in the fast flow will have little time to gather moisture for significant precipitation chances with their passage. The first system is expected to pass overhead early Thursday. Limited moisture will lead to skies becoming partly to variably cloudy. Thursday will be rather mild, with a dry cold frontal passage. Highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s SE. Colder air will follow, but not to the extent of the recent cold spell. Lows 25- 30 Thursday night, with highs 45-52 Friday with mostly clear/sunny conditions. Yet another fast moving trough will move across the region late Friday into Friday night. High pressure is expected to build in from the Gulf Coast states Saturday into early Sunday, with cool temperatures Saturday in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Milder temperatures expected Sunday as the high builds overhead. Some chance of showers may accompany the next wave by later Sunday or Monday. However, the theme of early next week will be mild with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Wednesday... NEXT 24 HOURS: VFR+ conditions continue at all TAF sites at this hour, with little in the way of changes expected overnight. Winds will continue to gust at times through sunrise before settling down across most TAF sites by mid day. A second wave looks to rotate north of the area Wednesday evening, introducing cloud cover and isolated wind gusts and LLWS, especially at GSO/INT/FAY Wednesday evening. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday. A passing disturbance Wednesday evening will bring a period of mostly cloudy skies and spotty light precip though ceilings should remain VFR. Another system will bring a slightly better chance for spotty rain showers though ceilings are still expected to remain VFR.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...JJM/WSS

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