Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220626 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to move through the state Monday, bringing additional cool and dry air. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Saturday... High pressure will follow the strong mid/upper into our region today and tonight. Much cooler and drier conditions can be expected today in the rear of the upper trough. NW winds at 10-20 mph are expected to gust to near 25 mph into the afternoon, with winds expected to diminish late today and this evening as the pressure gradient weakens. Highs today are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. Some upper 50s may hold for the northern Piedmont around Roxboro, but most areas should touch 60. Dew points will fall off into the upper 20s and 30s in the dry air. Tonight, the center of the high pressure is forecast to remain just to the SW, over GA and upstate SC. This is not perfect for maximum radiational cooling as some light stirring of a breeze will likely persist through midnight. After that, it appears that the boundary layer will decouple in most areas allowing a good 6-7 hours of radiational cooling. Lows in the mid to upper 30s should be the result over the rural Piedmont and possibly NW Sandhills (Moore, Lee Counties). Urban areas should be 5 degrees warmer. There could be some light or scattered frost in areas that reach the mid 30s. However, a widespread killing frost is not expected. We will include this information in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Clear skies are expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday... Moderation will occur in temperatures as the winds become westerly or west- southwesterly Sunday afternoon. Skies will be Sunny as the high pressure remains south of the area. Highs will moderate about 5 degrees or reach the 65-70 range Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be mostly 40-45 except some upper 30s NE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 AM Saturday... Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected at least through the middle of the upcoming work week. A backdoor cold front will surge south as surface high pressure builds southeast out the upper mid west and down the Atlantic coast on Monday. The cold air advection will be delayed until late Monday into Monday night, so highs should have ample time to climb into the mid 70s, with lows Tuesday morning in the low to mid 40s. The cooler airmass will be locked in place Tuesday through Thursday, with highs each day mainly in the mid to upper 60s after morning lows in the mid 40s. Next frontal system will be approaching late Thursday and Thursday night and we should see increased cloud coverage and erosion of the high pressure ridge as southwest flow ensues. Modest warm air advection offset by cloud coverage should produce highs just a touch warmer on Thursday, mostly in the upper 60s. Beyond this point the latest GFS solution features a cutoff low digging south which delays eastward progress of our next surface front and associated moisture advection. Will maintain ongoing forecast trend which banks on a cleaner, progressive frontal passage featuring a small chance of showers later Thursday and Thursday night per the ECMWF. Highs Friday are around 70, but could easily tip a category either way due to lack of confidence in the strength and timing of cool air advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the SW. NW winds at 10-20kt should gust to near 25kt today then diminish to 5kt tonight. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions are expected to rule for the remainder of the weekend and through the majority of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.