Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251952 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 252 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY... IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS...PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS) TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY MILD WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (COMPARED TO TODAY) WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE HIGH STARTING TO SLIP OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 30S EXPECTED. SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ON THE MILD SIDE...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NEAR 60 NW TO LOWER-MID 60S SE. SATURDAY NIGHT: STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOA DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: LEFT BEHIND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY...NEARLY SHEARED APART BY THE TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA...PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AND TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURGE OF STRONG WAA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6" COUPLED WITH DPVA FROM S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE LULL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH RENEWED LIFT/FORCING ARRIVING AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY AFTER 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT MID-LEVEL DRYING...AS FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH- SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY-THURSDAY: UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW US. AN EXPANSIVE 1050MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN THE NATIONS MID- SECTION...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. -KRD LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE (THOUGH STILL EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...KRD/CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT

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