Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211651 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1251 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A moist southwesterly return flow will prevail over the Carolinas through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday... Central NC remains at the southern periphery of the westerlies in broad cyclonic flow aloft. As of 15Z, shower activity assoc/w a seasonably moist low-level airmass and DPVA attendant a small amplitude wave aloft has largely ended as the aforementioned wave progresses into eastern NC. Expect little chance for additional precip to develop this afternoon through tonight as a much drier mid- level airmass advects eastward over the Carolinas amidst weak forcing throughout the column. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lows tonight in the lower 70s. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday... Widespread convection is expected over the Deep South tonight/Thu as Tropical Cyclone Cindy makes landfall in vicinity of the TX/LA border. Latent heat release assoc/w the aforementioned convection is expected to amplify a ridge downstream over the central Appalachians and portions of NC/VA late tonight. Subsidence attendant the aforementioned ridge should suppress precipitation and result in dry conditions through ~noon. However, strengthening low-level warm advection (from the SW) and MCVs (emanating from upstream convection) lifting NNE into the southern Appalachians will weaken ridging aloft over the region and allow convection to expand NE from upstate SC/southwest NC into portions of central NC Thursday afternoon, primarily the W/SW Piedmont. Expect highs ranging from the lower/mid 80s in the far W/SW Piedmont to lower 90s in the E/NE Coastal Plain. Convection should assume a WSW-ENE orientation and lift north toward the NC/VA border Thu night as Cindy`s remnants progress into Arkansas and southerly flow aloft upstream over the Deep South veers to the SW. Expect the relative best chance for precipitation in the N/NW Piedmont. Chances for precipitation will decrease to the south and east such that dry conditions are likely in the SE Coastal Plain. Expect lows in the lower 70s. -Vincent
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday... Continued unsettled weather is expected for at least the first half of the medium range, possibly lingering into early next week. The main track of disturbances is generally expected to shift back north and west of the area on Friday. Thus, with the mid to upper level ridge extending northward across our region we should see a bulk of the convection steered around our area from west to north. However, the latest GFS continues to show a band of heavier precip across northern portions of our area during the morning. Thus, for now will maintain high chance/low end likely pops across northern portions of our area for Friday morning, with chance pops elsewhere. Highs Friday area expected to generally range from the upper 80s to around 90. Meanwhile, the remnants of Cindy are expected to move from the lower MS river valley into the TN valley region Friday night, before shifting eastward and across the Mid-Atlantic region. Questions region in how quickly Cindy`s remnants will move across our area. Though the latest GFS and ECMWF now show a lull in precip Friday night, before the remnants of Cindy cross central NC on Saturday (which would result in at least some severe threat). However, the influence from a northern stream trough and strength of the lingering circulation will play a key role in how much impact we see from the remnants. The latest GFS has trended drier (with the ECMWF no in yet for early next week at this time) for late weekend into early next week. Given the rather low confidence in how much push of dry air we will see behind the remnants of Cindy on Sunday, will continue to show a lingering threat of precip into early next week, especially with a deep trough developing across the eastern half of the county. Highs should be in warmest this weekend (mid/upper 80s to lower 90s) to coolest at the end of the period (Tuesday upper 70s/lower 80s). Lows will follow a similar trend, 70s at the beginning of the period to upper 50s/60s near the end. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday... 24-HR TAF Period: MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR by early/mid afternoon as an upper level disturbance progresses east of central NC and a drier mid-level airmass advects into the region from the west. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through this evening. MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible at all terminals after midnight, though confidence is lower than average with regard to timing in addition to the location /extent/ of stratus development. Any sub-VFR ceilings that develop overnight will lift/scatter to VFR by ~15Z Thursday morning. Looking Ahead: Early morning stratus /sub-VFR ceilings/ and diurnal convection will be possible on both Thu/Fri. Gusty SW winds and numerous showers/storms are expected at all terminals between 12-18Z Saturday (beginning/ending earliest at INT/GSO and latest at RWI) as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cindy track quickly E/ENE across NC/VA. VFR conditions will rapidly return from west-east in the wake of Cindy`s remnants Sat afternoon/evening and persist through the remainder of the weekend. -Vincent
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Vincent

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