Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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740 FXUS62 KRAH 251040 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 640 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic states will extend south into our region today. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move north through the western Atlantic, paralleling the SE Coast through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 605 AM Sunday... High clouds continue to stream into the area this morning in association with Hurricane Maria, which is located well off the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will continue to extend into the area from the north today. This will yield a continuation of dry conditions, though mostly to partly cloud skies, with even some lower clouds moving into eastern portion of the area today. In addition, the pressure gradient between the high to our north and Maria will also begin to tighten, producing wind gusts in the mid to upper teens across the area. High temps are expected to range from the lower to mid 80s east to the mid to upper 80s west. Low level moisture will further increase across the area, especially eastern portions of central NC tonight as Hurricane Maria slowly lifts northward offshore of the Carolinas. This will allow for some low stratus to spread eastward into central NC, though generally dry conditions are expected to continue. Low temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Monday... Hurricane Maria is expected to slowly lift northward, while remaining a couple hundred miles off the NC coast. Thus, central NC will remain well west of the track of the hurricane, and resulting see only minimal impacts. In fact most locations across our a forecast area will remain dry, with only a few light shower associated with some weakening outer bands possible Tuesday-Tuesday night across our far eastern Coastal Plain counties. The main impacts will be mostly cloudy to overcast skies and some breezy winds, with gusts of up to 30 mph or so (mainly across the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills - generally along/near the I-95 corridor and eastward). High temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM Monday... Hurricane Maria is forecast to pass about 125-150 miles east of KHSE on Wed, with merely a slight chance of a shower and wind gusts up to 25-30 mph in the Coastal Plain - very little impact on the sensible weather in central NC. The bigger story Wed will be a return to summer-like temperatures, about 10 degrees above avg, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows around 70. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough now over the cntl Rockies will lift newd across the upr Great Lakes and sern Canada. An accompanying surface frontal zone will settle through NC late Thu and Thu night. Deep layer flow will generally be nwly, overwhelmed by the circulation associated with Maria; and that will limit low level convergence along the frontal zone. As such, the front is expected to be a dry one for central NC, with just a band of mid level cloudiness likely to accompany the fropa. Near persistence temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu, followed by cold advection-driven ones into the upper 50s to lower-middle 60s Fri morning. Weak high pressure will crest overhead during the day Fri, with temperatures within a couple of degrees either side of 80 degrees. A secondary nrn stream shortwave trough will amplify from s-cntl Canada to the nrn middle Atlantic coast; and this will send a re- enforcing, stronger surface front through NC Fri night. ~1030 mb, cP high pressure will subsequently build from the Great Lakes to New England, while ridging swd in the lee of the Appalachians. The weekend is consequently expected to be much cooler, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Any precipitation chances, in a long fetch of moist, enely flow off the Atlantic, is expected to remain along coastal areas. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ As of 630 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue early this morning through at least 12 to 15Z. A band of MVFR clouds of around 1500-3000 ft are expected to spread eastward into eastern portions of central NC. This may result in a period of MVFR cigs at KFAY and KRWI from mid morning through late afternoon/early evening. Further west, expect VFR conditions will continue as surface high pressure extends southward into the area. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to continue, with increasing northeasterly winds today, with perhaps a few gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range as Hurricane Maria slowly lifts northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Low level moisture will increase tonight, as MVFR to possibly IFR cigs spread eastward across the eastern half of the area (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI). Outlook: The closer approach of Hurricane Maria to the coast will bring chances for some shower activity as well as some lower ceilings with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range to the eastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday morning through Thursday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/CBL NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...BSD/Ellis

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