Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210044 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 845 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will retreat offshore in advance of a cold front and upper level low pressure trough approaching from the west tonight, then cross the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 PM Thursday... Overnight will bring a battle of clear skies and radiational cooling under the high pressure overhead giving way to increasing cloudiness, a south breeze at 5-10 mph, and a slight chance of showers late over the west. Temperatures may end up warmer in the climatological cooler areas of the NW Piedmont early Friday than in the traditional warmer areas of the Coastal Plain due to this battle. The result should be temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 60s around 12z. Any shower chances should arrive after 12z. Some low stratus will be possible late in the NW zones, and some ground fog and stratus in the east with lingering radiational cooling there before the south breeze increases. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Thursday... Falling heights aloft with the deepening upper trough, up to 180m by Friday afternoon, and a cold front accompanied by rather strong FGEN will help to overcome the overall lack of deep moisture on Friday, will result in band of showers that will cross the area between 12Z and 21Z. Instability will be limited, especially as the front outpaces the better deep forcing, but the strong FGEN may be enough to squeak out an isolated storm or two, mainly east of I-95 in the afternoon. Outside of a slightly heavier shower, qpf will be less than a tenth or two of an inch. Some gusty northwest winds, up to 25kt or so per GFS/NAM soundings, will develop behind the front, and may be briefly enhanced by the increasing anafrontal nature of the precip, strongest across northern portions of the area. By all accounts the precip will be east of the CWA by 21-00Z, with slowly diminishing northwest winds and cold advection overnight. Lows 43-48. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday... Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected for the weekend through the middle of the upcoming work week... The pattern during the period will feature an exiting high amplitude upper trough early Saturday with a northwest flow aloft expected for Saturday and Sunday. A dry cold front will drop south across the region on Monday. Upper level ridging will develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and shift off the southeast coast on Thursday. A northern stream trough and the associated cold front will move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Mid Atlantic on Friday. The sensible weather will feature dry weather through the period with near zero PoPs through Wednesday night. Chilly temperatures are expected on Saturday and Saturday night as cold air moves into the region behind the departing cold front. Have lowered temperatures a bit for both periods with highs now expected between 59 to 64. If winds decouple on Saturday night, we could have some lows in the upper 30s across the western Piedmont. Temperatures moderate on Sunday into Monday ahead of the dry cold front. Behind the front, cooler air returns with highs in the mid 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the mid 40s. Clouds increase on Thursday ahead of the approaching system with temperatures warming back up to around 70. -Blaes && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM Thursday... VFR this evening as high pressure slowly weakens ahead of a cold front approaching the TN Valley. A light southerly wind will continue through the night, and most model forecast soundings indicate a good chance of IFR or LIFR stratus or fog, with highest probability at FAY and RWI. A cold front and band of showers should be just west of INT/GSO by 12Z, moving east to RDU by 15Z. A brief shower and MVFR conditions is generally expected with this band, with northwesterly gusts to 25 kt or so behind the front. Each TAF site should see MVFR conditions during the afternoon as the showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, move east. Outlook: VFR conditions will return across all of central NC by Friday evening, with a northwest wind that will remain at 5-10kt Friday night and increase to 10-15kt, gusting to 20-25kt on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, VFR conditions will continue, with a dry backdoor cold front early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...SMITH/FRANKLIN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.