Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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414 FXUS62 KRAH 240548 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A Piedmont trough will extend from Virginia into South Carolina through Tuesday. A cold front will drop south into North Carolina on Tuesday and then stall across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 PM Sunday... Initial round of storms, which become cool pool dominated, have either dissipated or moved east of the area, with only some stratiform rain remaining east of US Highway 1. Another band of convection that`s moving east into the Southern Appalachians, in advance of the OH Valley shortwave, is expected to fade after crossing the Blue Ridge after Midnight. Will leave a slight chance pop in overnight. Widespread thunderstorms and convective outflow boundaries galore have aided in cooling temperatures into the 70s just about everywhere. So it will be a little cooler tonight compared to the past two nights. Lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Sunday... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Monday and Monday night. The upper-level trough axis will shift east during the period, allowing a weak surface cold front to move into central NC Monday night and then stall. Heights at 500 hPa actually increase a bit but widespread moisture should result in a fair amount of cloudiness, especially in the mid and high levels. Depending on how convection evolves late tonight, some widely scattered showers and storms may be ongoing on Monday morning, especially across the south and east. Additional, mainly scattered storms are apt to redevelop during the midday and especially afternoon hours with the greatest coverage across the southern and eastern Piedmont and in the Coastal Plain. More limited coverage is expected across the western Piedmont and Triad. Central NC is outlooked in the general thunder category by SPC. While no organized convection is expected, can`t rule out a stronger storm given the higher CAPE and slightly stronger flow. Low-level thickness values drop about 7 to 10m across the area compared to today which combined with the cloud cover should result in highs about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today but a few degrees warmer than previously forecast for Monday. This should result in highs in the 93 to 98 range, providing heat index values of 97-104, close but not reaching criteria, except in an isolated spot of two. For now, plan to hold off on any heat advisories and have coordinated with most of our neighboring WFOs, but we will be close to the threshold and given the multiple days of of heat issues already experienced, the mid shift will need to consider issuing an advisory. It will remain muggy on Monday night with lows in the 73 to 78 range. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 PM Sunday... Long range guidance continues to indicate that shortwave energy will stall over the Southeast mid-week as an upper level ridge extends eastward from the Central Plains to the Carolinas. NW flow aloft is expected to strengthen over the region late this week through this weekend as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies and shortwave energy digs SE across the Great Lakes. At this time, expect at or slightly below normal temperatures in association with increased cloud cover and an increased potential for convection, though uncertainty is greater than average in such a synoptic pattern. -Vincent && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys should storms move over a terminal. With the rain that has fallen in the past 12 hours or so, some fog/low stratus could develop tonight, but should clear up after sunrise. Clouds will likely stick around for much of the daytime hours, especially the farther southeast (KFAY) you go, however cigs should remain above VFR. Looking ahead: Mainly VFR conditions expected through the work week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. This could result in some restrictions in morning fog/stratus or storms with the greatest risk late in the work week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...KC/Badgett

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