Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220100 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 900 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY... DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES) INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID- WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN... VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...KRD

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