Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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864 FXUS62 KRAH 191906 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday. The high pressure will shift offshore Tuesday. Low pressure may develop off the Florida coast late Tuesday, and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM Sunday... Cold air advection stratocumulus were only over the Mountains of NC this afternoon. Otherwise, the skies were sunny across the state. Winds continued to be up this afternoon in to the 15-20 mph range. A 1028 MB surface high pressure was centered over Texas, with a strong CAA pattern with NW flow over the eastern third of the United States. The high pressure is forecast to move ENE to a position over the southern Appalachians of TN/NC/GA by late tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient is forecast to really weaken over our region mid to late evening. This will allow the winds to weaken to less than 10 mph by mid-evening, then becoming nearly calm overnight through daybreak. Good to excellent radiational cooling in the very dry air will allow lows to bottom out into the 27-32 range in most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM Sunday... High pressure is expected to be overhead Monday into Monday night with very dry air in place to the surface. Low level thicknesses do increase some over the western Piedmont, with a light southerly return flow late Monday night. Most of this return flow will likely remain above the near surface layer given the expected near surface temperature inversion. Sunny skies are expected Monday with highs of 55-60. Clear skies are expected Monday night with lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s NE ranging into the mid 30s SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM Sunday... Tuesday will be mild as surface high pressure sites offshore and brings southerly return flow and warm air advection into the area. A dry forecast is expected for much of the day but a few showers could begin to move into the eastern portion of the forecast area as a weak low pressure system moves up the Carolina coast. This system will continue to develop on Wednesday but will remain offshore and there will only be an outside chance of showers in the eastern counties. Temperatures during this time frame in the mid 50s in the NW Piedmont to mid 60s in the southeast. Wednesday night a dry cold front will move through the area cooling off temperatures into the low to middle 30s. For Thanksgiving Day, looking like a mostly dry forecast for many but a second low pressure system moving up the coast will keep things a little more uncertain for areas mainly east of I-95. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the system passes by to the east. Cooler high temperatures in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Continental high pressure will then take over for the rest of the week, keeping the forecast dry with temperatures gradually rising through the 50s back in to the low 60s across the south by Sunday afternoon with upper 50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1210 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected with high confidence through 18Z/Monday. Surface winds from the NW at 10-15kt will become light and variable tonight and Monday. Looking beyond 12Z/Monday, generally VFR conditions are forecast through mid-week with high pressure in control. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett

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