Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191822 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 222 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A deep ridge of high pressure will extend across the region through Thursday. A surface cold front and upper level low pressure trough will approach from the west Thursday night, then cross the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Wednesday... Basically a temperature forecast today, and the current forecast appears to right on track. A 590dm ridge at H5 spans the Southeast, resulting in strong subsidence and a 1403m low level thickness at KGSO this morning. This will yield near record highs in the mid 80 this afternoon. GSO AND RDU may break these record highs: GSO - 86 in 1938 RDU - 87 in 1941 FAY - 90 in 1926 Tonight, Skies should be mostly clear with light southwesterly winds. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning staying up in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Not quite as hot on Thursday as the ridge begins to break down and we start to see cloud cover increase ahead of a frontal system that will be moving through the Ohio Valley. Still will see low to mid 80s though across the area with light southwesterly winds ahead of the front. Dewpoints will come up into the mid 60s ahead of the front as well as some moisture advection begins. Despite this, Thursday will be dry precipitation wise. This will be the last 80 degree day for a while as the front moves through on Friday and brings a new airmass for the weekend and into next week. Lows Thursday night in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... As of 222 PM Wednesday... The only chance for rain during this part of the forecast will be Friday, associated with the passage of a fairly deep upper trough and assoc sfc cold front. Right now it appears that the front will sweep across central NC between 12 and 21Z Friday. Forecast soundings continue to show modest and shallow moisture assoc with this system, as noted by forecast pwats barely reaching 1.25 inches. Even though recent model runs have been trending a bit wetter, it still appears that locations that get any rain out of this system should only see about 1/4 inch or less, with the best chance for rain along and north of the Hwy 64 corridor, closer to the more favorable dynamics. The timing of the front may be just early enough to keep high temps during the day at or below 75F. Friday evening and night, in the wake of the trough passage, look for quickly clearing skies, breezy condition, and caa which will drop temps into the lower 40s for lows that night. This weekend is looking mostly clear, but chilly, thanks to nw flow in the wake of the departing trough. Despite ample sunshine, daytime highs will only reach the lower to mid 60s, and lows sunday morning will dip down into the upper 30s. The first half of next week still looks mostly clear, but with an upper short wave (embedded in the nw flow) and a dry sfc front progged to move se and across our area on Monday, temp moderation may be delayed a bit. Nevertheless, temps during this time are expected to be within a few degrees of normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM Wednesday... High confidence VFR forecast this afternoon through the first half of tonight. Light wind and clear skies will again bring the possibility of localized radiation fog, with models indicating better chances of mostly IFR/MVFR at FAY and some typical IFR or LIFR at RWI. Long term: Another high confidence VFR day on Thursday, followed by the potential for some low clouds Thursday night ahead of a front and associated showers that will cross the area on Friday. VFR will return for the weekend, with some minor northwest wind gusts behind the front on saturday && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis/BS SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG AVIATION...BS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.