Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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837 FXUS62 KRAH 240027 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 826 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Southeast will weaken tonight and Monday in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. High pressure will then build in from the north through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 PM Sunday... Northwest flow aloft and weak surface troughing in the lee of the mountains today. 120m height rises at H5 noted in regional raobs has resulted in strong subsidence and clear skies. Thicknesses are forecast to continue to recover tonight to nearly 1365m by 12z Monday, likely resulting from warm advection accompanying a 25-35kt nocturnal low level jet. The surface will decouple from this feature, but a light wind will likely continue between lower pressure to the north and the 1024mb high over the Southeast U.S. Lows won`t be nearly as cold as last night; 44-48, warmest across the north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Sunday... West-northwesterly low-level flow will continue for the first half of Monday ahead of a dry cold front dropping south through the Mid- Atlantic States. There no moisture accompanying the front and upper forcing is largely absent, so no precip or hardly any clouds are expected. Mixing to around 850mb through mid-afternoon should result in highs approaching 80 in the south ahead of the front, a little cooler in the low/mid 70s across the north where 850mb temps will begin to fall after 18Z. Weak cold advection and northerly flow will push lows back down into the low 40s on Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Fairly mundane period of weather for the long term with only one real system of note and that is a low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southward which will affect the Carolinas sometime in the Thursday night through Friday morning time frame. At this time, the models are fairly consistent and in agreement on timing but the southward extent of the precipitation with the front is less certain. If the timing is correct, it will be unfavorable diurnally and perhaps a limiting factor in the rain and the best jet dynamics will pass north of the area. For now will represent this in the forecast with a slight chance for showers but no higher than that for now. Otherwise expect cool temperatures for much of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s moderating to the low 70s late week and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The coldest night will be Tuesday night where temperatures most likely will stay in the low 40s with a some upper 30s in rural areas. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 826 PM Sunday... There is high confidence that dry VFR conditions will dominate through the 24 hour TAF period. Forecast soundings show a very sharp surface inversion developing after sunset with 25-35kt winds around 2000 ft overnight, which may result in low level wind shear until the inversion break around 12Z Monday morning. After that, could see some occasional westerly wind gusts between 15 to 20kt in advance of a dry cold front passage moving through the area between 21z Monday to 03z Tuesday. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will dominate for much of the week. An area of low pressure tracking across the upper Midwest and Lower Great lakes will drag a surface front through the area late Thursday/Thursday night. Band of showers attendant to the front could result in a period of sub-VFR conditions Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with VFR conditions returning by Friday via post- frontal cold dry air advection.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...BS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...CBL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.