Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251756 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1256 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXITING CENTRAL NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S (NEAR 60 DEGREES) FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THEN...WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS) TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY... CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ASSOC/W SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHS SIMILAR ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS FRI NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER COASTAL NC AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE FAIR-WEATHER WITH TEMPS STILL 10+ DEG ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEG COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIGHT-TIME LOWS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS THE COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY COOL DURING THIS TIME AS THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH...ALLOWING THE COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MIDWEEK AND BEYOND: A BRIEF BREAK IN THE DAMP WEATHER MAY COME ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. -KRD LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE (THOUGH STILL EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT

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