Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 012355 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 655 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A departing cold front will push off the Southeast coast today. High pressure will build over the Eastern U.S. from the west today into the weekend. Upper level disturbances will approach the eastern U.S. from the north and west on Sunday and from the southwest on Monday bringing an increasing chance of precipitation for late Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM Thursday... Early afternoon surface analysis shows the cold front now well off the Carolina coast with a lee trough across the western Piedmont. A much drier air mass has moved into the area with surface dew points in the 30s to lower 40s with a dew point of 27 at KINT at 20Z. Deep layer moisture is also much reduced with the precipitable water value at KGSO from this morning`s 12Z sounding at 0.32 inches. Given large scale subsidence tonight and the drier atmosphere, skies will be mainly clear with perhaps a few high clouds coming in from the west late overnight. Winds will relax overnight which along with a cooler and drier air mass, should result in considerable cooling with lows in the 33 to 39 range. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build into and over the region through Saturday with westerly flow aloft. As a result, expect this period should be mainly dry, with rather seasonable temperatures (highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s). There is a slight chance that rain could move into the far west Saturday night, however it is more likely they will hold off until sometime on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM Thursday... The extended forecast will be characterized by a series of shortwaves progressing through the central U.S. Though the model solutions are in much better agreement for Sunday through Tuesday, significant model differences arise thereafter. As a result, forecast confidence beyond Tuesday is quite low. Sunday through Tuesday: An upper level cut-off low over NW Mexico will usher a good amount of moisture into the Gulf Coast states and southeast U.S. Sunday while a weak ridge lingers over the east coast. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave over the Midwest will progress eastward, though the impact it will have on the ridge is a bit uncertain and will have an impact on the northeastward extent of the Pacific moisture. The better chance for rain to move into the region will come Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned low starts to move northeast through the Midwest and interacts with another shortwave traversing a strengthening trough over the Rockies. The advection of additional moist air being picked up off the Gulf in the southwesterly flow will result in increasing chances for rain over the Carolinas. Highs Sunday will still be somewhat cool, upper 40s to low 50s before warming up into the mid to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Wednesday and Thursday: The low should be absorbed into the northern stream flow by late Tuesday/Tuesday night and the rain should exit to the east Tuesday night. Though the upper level patterns appear similar on Wednesday and Thursday, the difference in the strength and location of the next low/trough is significant. As a result, forecast uncertainty is high with respect to both weather and temperatures. Per the GFS...Central NC could get a quick shot of rain followed by strong cold advection and the chance to see lows in the low to mid 20s Thursday night. Conversely...the ECMWF is stronger and slower with the system and given the latest solution, the rain would be delayed until late Thursday/Thursday night. For now, will keep this period dry with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows decreasing from 40s Wednesday night to 20s and 30s Thursday Night. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. Surface high pressure will build/extend into the area through the remainder of the work week with mostly clear/mostly sunny skies expected. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then increasing after sunrise out of the west to northwest in the 5 to 10 mph range. Outlook: Fair weather is expected to continue into the weekend as surface high pressure builds/extends into the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will increase and thicken on Saturday and lower and thicken into early Sunday. A series of upper level disturbances will bring increasing chances of adverse aviation conditions into the area late Sunday and then late Monday especially Tuesday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...BSD/BLAES

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