Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 290709 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 309 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED... WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY... TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON- WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLM NEAR TERM...77 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...77/VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.