Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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345 FXUS62 KRAH 301852 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure and associated frontal zone will drift east across our region through early Saturday, then offshore through the rest of the weekend, while a persistent upper level low over the Tennessee Valley lifts across the Lower Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 250 PM Friday... Improving conditions are on the horizon. The latest surface analysis indicates that the leading edge of the drier air has worked through the two westernmost rows of counties, with surface dewpoints there having fallen into the upper 50s to lower 60s and a slight shift of surface winds to a more southerly or SSW direction. The thermodynamic environment along and east of the front remains supportive of scattered showers and storms, with MUCAPE up to 1500- 2000 J/kg and steepening low level lapse rates, in conjunction with 50-55 kts of 0-6 km shear, a 50 kt mid level jetlet, and a pocket of upper divergence pivoting around the east side of the potent low centered over the KY/IN border. Certainly we could still see a strong to isolated severe storm or two prior to nightfall based on the existing environment. Will retain chance pops and partly to mostly cloudy skies over all but the western CWA for several more hours. Forecast soundings show slow but steady low level cooling and drying through the evening and overnight, so a trend toward clearing from SW to NE looks reasonable, with a corresponding end to shower chances. Expect lows from the mid 50s west to the mid 60s east. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... Dry/stable conditions will prevail sat/sat night as a dry low-level airmass advects into the region beneath an increasingly warm/dry mid- level airmass as the upper level low retrogrades northward away from the region (toward the Great Lakes). Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows mid/upper 50s to lower 60s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... he upper low over the Great Lakes will finally open up and weaken as it finally ejects eastward off the New England Coast late Monday and into Tuesday. Warm dry air aloft will cap Central NC off from any convection Sunday and Monday with daytime highs continuing to run a good 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s south. Lows 60 to 65. In the wake of the low lingering off the New England Coast, Canadian high pressure will wedge south down the Atlantic Seaboard, bringing cooler, more seasonable temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. The NHC forecasts has Matthew moving northward through the Bahamas on Tuesday, with large model spread thereafter in both the track and speed of Matthew for the latter half of next week. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on TC Matthew. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... MVFR cigs persist at RDU/RWI/FAY with a continued threat for scattered showers and isolated storms, while conditions have improved to VFR at INT/GSO as a slow moving cold front has shifted just east of these locations, with drier air moving in. The dominant MVFR conditions at RDU/RWI/FAY will improve to VFR from late afternoon through early to mid evening as dry air gradually works in from the WSW, with a corresponding end to the shower/storm chances. There is a small chance of MVFR or IFR vsbys in fog at RWI/RDU early Sat morning but chances appear too remote at this time to include in the terminal forecasts. VFR conditions are expected at all sites late tonight through Sat as high pressure builds in from the WSW. Surface winds from the SE at 6-12 kts will become light/variable for much of tonight before becoming southwesterly Sat behind the front. Looking beyond 18z Sat: VFR conditions are likely to dominate through Wed, although a period of sub-VFR fog/stratus is possible areawide early Wed morning. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield

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