Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240548 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through the week. Temperatures and humidities will gradually rise through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM Wednesday... 1025+ mb surface high pressure will continue to extend from off the mid-Atlantic coast southwest across NC/SC today and tonight. The high will gradually shift eastward with time. There continued to be some mid level moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion in place over inland areas of NC (see previous discussion). This inversion will persist into the afternoon with scattered mid level clouds likely continuing. Partly to mostly sunny skies today will yield highs around those observed Tuesday. Expect 86-91. As the ridge axis gradually shifts east tonight, a continued slow rise in dew points and humidities will occur. This will yield lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM Wednesday... The surface ridge axis will push offshore leading to a WSW flow aiding warming as the mid level ridging strengthens over the southern Appalachians. Continued mainly sunny, dry, and becoming hot Thursday. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s N to S. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... This looks to be a fairly tranquil period with very low precip chances. Strong mid level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature, centered over the Mid South and Deep South early Thu, with its center drifting slowly to the ENE over the western Carolinas by Fri morning, to over VA and northern NC early Sat, where it will hold through at least Mon, maintaining dry and stable mid-upper levels over our area. The narrow surface ridge centered well to our NE and extending southwestward across central NC early Thu will weaken further with its axis pushing to our SE as a cold front approaches from the NW through Fri. Thicknesses will respond by rebounding from near-normal readings early Thu to 10-20 m above normal Fri into Sat. The front will drop into and through NC over the weekend, however with a weakening low level wind field and no opportunity for moisture influx at any level, any convection will be feeble and very isolated, limited to a few cells drifting off the higher terrain (likely a slow and difficult trip given the low speeds of the steering flow) and along an inland-drifting sea breeze late in the day Sat and Sun. New surface ridging attempts to build in from the north late Sun into Mon as it drifts eastward off the Canadian Maritime coast, however thicknesses dip minimally and remain just above normal through the early part of next work week. Forecast uncertainty starts to rise Tue with the weakening surface ridge axis shifting to our east and another frontal zone approaching from the WNW. A couple of modeling systems suggest that the evolving system now east of the Lesser Antilles may be driven toward the WNW by the Carolinas anticyclone and may affect a portion of FL, the Gulf Coast, or Southeast states by Mon or Tue. Model agreement on this is not ideal, however, reducing forecast confidence, but we`ll continue to monitor. Highs around 90 Thu will trend to the mid 90s for Fri/Sat, then dip back into the lower 90s for Sun-Tue. Lows will be around 70 trending to the lower 70s. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 150 AM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: There is a high confidence of VFR conditions continuing through the 24 hour TAF period with high pressure in control. Outlook...VFR conditions and light winds will generally prevail through mid to late week with strong subtropical ridging over the area.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Badgett

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