Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220558 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 157 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid to upper level trough will linger over the eastern Carolinas through the end of the week. Otherwise, surface high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 920 PM Thursday... Just an isolated shower or two remaining across the far southwest portion of the area, otherwise expect the rest of the night to be dry. With the scattered rain from earlier this aft/eve and dewpoint depressions decreasing to 4 degrees or less between midnight and daybreak, patchy fog will likely develop across much of Central NC tonight. Lows will likely bottom out in the mid 60s with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 313 PM Thursday... Sheared remnants of the weak upper level low will linger across eastern NC as we begin to feel increasing influence of the strong mid-upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the Great Lake region. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm across the far SE zones. Otherwise, it will be dry on Friday with persistence in temperatures ranging from mid 80s NW to upper 80s SE. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... General troffing in the wake of Jose is pressed south as high pressure over the Great Lakes ridges south and drier air builds in for the upcoming weekend. This high pressure looks to remain over the area through the extended, pending any westward deviation in the forecast track of Maria, which is still progged to remain well offshore. Mid to high cloudiness will spread westward across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearing by Thursday as Maria continues to recurve northeast. An airmass change is finally on the horizon, but slightly beyond this extended package...stay tuned as next weekend`s forecast comes into focus. In the meantime, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with morning lows mostly in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Surface high pressure will build/extend into the area today, while the mid/upper level trough is forecast to sink to the south and east of the area. This will lead VFR conditions, outside of any patchy pre-dawn sub-VFR visbys. Any pre-dawn sub-VFR visbys are expected to be MVFR at worst, except at fog prone KRWI, where MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible. Any sub-VFR conditions will quickly end around sunrise (generally by 12Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to mostly sunny to party sunny skies on Friday, with light and variable winds. Outlook: Patchy radiation fog will be possible each morning, mainly at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions -under the influence of high pressure centered north of our region- otherwise anticipated through early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BSD/MWS

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