Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221853 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY... THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERIFYING WELL AND WILL LARGELY BE LEFT AS- IS...ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER (CLR-BKN GRADIENT) FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIOR DISCUSSION SUMS UP THE FORECAST SO WELL THAT IT WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING UPDATE. -VINCENT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND CLOUDINESS... WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY... THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET. OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...VINCENT/MWS SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...MWS

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