Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170657 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead from the northwest today, and then move offshore tonight. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. High pressure will return for Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /today through tonight/... As of 155 AM Friday... A subtle frontal zone now sitting across northern NC will continue to drop southward through the state early this morning, with little consequence other than briefly stronger winds form the N and NE and perhaps a few gusts. Otherwise, high pressure will build in from the NW today, settling overhead this afternoon, with rising heights aloft and deep subsidence within a dry column. Expect generally sunny skies through the day, with just a few high clouds. Expect highs about a category below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s, reflecting the low level thicknesses around 10 m below normal. Increasing high level moisture (around 325-335K) from the west tonight within strengthening upper northwest flow will bring increasing high clouds overnight, as the surface high drifts off the NC coast, with strengthening SW flow up to 25-30 kts at 925 mb evident over the NW CWA. Lows will be in the mid-upper 30s, coolest NE where the clouds will be thinner with lagging low level moisture and thermal advection. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... As of 223 PM Thursday... To be updated shortly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday... No changes made to longer range forecast. Models continue to highlight a trough and surface low moving across the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday with its associated surface front racing east across North Carolina Saturday night. Surface winds will be gusty as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph by Saturday afternoon. The front will spill over the mountains Saturday afternoon, with likely PoPs in the western Piedmont early Saturday night. These likely PoPs will translate quickly across central NC, reaching the Coastal Plain after midnight before ending towards sunrise Sunday. Cool and dry high pressure will settle into the area Sunday, with rather low amplitude upper troffing lingering Sunday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 1230 AM Friday... Confidence is high in dominant VFR conditions across central NC over the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure and a dry air mass will build over the area from the northwest today, bringing unrestricted vsbys and no cigs. The surface high will shift offshore tonight as a few weak upper level disturbances approach from the west, and these will bring an increase in high clouds starting late in the TAF valid period. Surface winds will be from the northeast today under 10 kts, although some gusts over 10 kts are possible early this morning as a weak cool front drops through the area. Winds will trend to light and variable late today into tonight. Looking beyond 06z Sat: VFR conditions will hold through Sat, with increasing and thickening high and mid clouds. Surface winds from the SW will strengthen after daybreak Sat, to sustained 12-20 kts gusting occasionally to around 25 kts through the day. A short period of MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers is possible Sat evening and night as a cold front crosses the area, resulting in a shift of winds from SW to NW Sat night. VFR conditions are expected starting Sun morning as high pressure returns, lasting through Tue. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield

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