Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240515 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 115 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 855 PM THURSDAY... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...OPAQUE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER MIN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING DURING THE EVENING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY... DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF TIME. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80 OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING... AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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