Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270546 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY... THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN 800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS. WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. -BLAES 1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST... WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY... THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE 30S. THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE 50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN- SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY... MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...WSS

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