Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260745 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Bermuda high pressure will extend over the area through Friday producing above normal temperatures. Meanwhile, a storm system will develop over the sub-tropical Atlantic and drift toward the Southeast U.S. coast through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 340 AM Thursday... A string upper level ridge, weakened slightly on the northwest periphery by disturbances moving through the TN Valley, continues to hold across the Southeast US, while Bermuda high pressure has become anchored offshore. Outside of debris cloudiness this morning and a patch of mid-clouds approaching the northwest Piedmont, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny today. Weak and mostly uninhibited CAPE may support a few showers and storms drifting east off the higher terrain and into the western Piedmont late this afternoon, a scenario generally supported by most CAM`s. The airmass is largely unchanged since yesterday, so highs should again be in the 84-89 range. The surface ridge axis, accompanied by lower theta e air, will begin to slowly shift back west over eastern NC tonight, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions and a range of lows from 61-65 (coolest in the east).
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&& .SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday Night/...
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As of 340 AM Thursday... Strengthening of the upper ridge and shifting of the surface ridge overhead will lessen the prospects of convection on Friday, compared even to the little chance there is today. If there is a chance it will again be int he northwest Piedmont, but even then the steering flow should keep any convection confined to the higher terrain. H10-H85 thicknesses will be around 1415m, yielding highs of 85- 90. Lows mostly in the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... The general overall pattern for the weekend and into early next week will be characterized aloft by a ridge over the SE U.S. and a trough over the Midwest. A low pressure system in the mid to upper levels will develop off the FL coast beneath the ridge. At the surface, the high that was ridging westward into the Carolinas will be pushed northward and largely out of the region by the developing low as it moves north-northwestward along the FL coast. The aforementioned low pressure system will develop off the FL coast Friday night into Saturday and could develop tropical or sub- tropical characteristics as it moves northwestward. Though there are still plenty of model differences on the evolution of this low, there is fairly good model agreement and thus high confidence that it will develop. The general track is expected to take it NW toward the SE U.S. coast on Saturday resulting in an increase in moisture, clouds, and chances for convection through the day and into the overnight hours. Beyond Saturday, the low could remain near the SC/GA coast through the remainder of the period. The exact coverage, location, and timing of convection is dependent on how the low evolves. However, the convection is expected to be largely diurnal in nature, with the highest chances in the aft/eve and a lull overnight. Rainfall amounts through the weekend and early next week will depend on the path of the low and given the uncertainty of that, will hold off speculation of totals for now. Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Wednesday, with the potential for some mid 80s to creep back into the SW by Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Memorial Day/... As of 145 AM Thursday... Strong high pressure over the Southeast US will continue to promote VFR conditions through the TAF period. Dewpoints have come up a few degrees since last night, so there may be a few pockets of MVFR visibilities by 12z despite the thin high level debris clouds drifting overhead. Otherwise, a light southwesterly wind will prevail today, with just a small chance of a brief shower or storms at KINT/KGSO after 20z as convection drifts east off the mountains. Long term: More chances for sub-VFR conditions for the end of the week as a plume of moisture moves in from the southwest Atlantic that could affect the area for several days. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/BLS NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...BLS/Ellis

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