Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251803 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 203 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across North Carolina today and then stall across South Carolina on Wednesday. This front will lift back north on Thursday before a strong cold front approaches the region from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1055 AM Tuesday... Latest surface analysis shows the cold front dropping across central NC. Surface dew points have already fallen into the mid 60s across the border counties with a dew point of 66 noted in Roxboro! Northerly winds have arrived across all of central NC. Further aloft, the upper-level trough axis has shifted east, with the most recent short wave trough reaching the coast this morning. Precipitable water values continue to fall today and will range from 1.25 north to 1.75 south by this evening. A weak short wave drops into the region from the northwest late tonight. Otherwise, with decreased moisture and limited forcing, precipitation chances will be limited this afternoon and tonight. Have included just a chance for an isolated storm across the southern Coastal Plain and the Sandhills in proximity to the front. A shower is possible across the Yadkin and western Triad late this afternoon from isolated convection that forms in the mountains, but this may be a stretch. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with periods of of mainly high clouds. The morning RAOB at KGSO provided an observed 1000-850 hPa thickness value of 1415m which is 4m greater than yesterday while RNK came in a little cooler than yesterday and MHX a little warmer. Given that the strongest cold advection will remain to our north, current forecast highs in the 89 to 94 range look good. It will be cooler tonight with a few lows reaching the upper 60s near the VA border with most locations ranging from 68 to 74 degrees. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be the most comfortable day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat index values for much of the region. The aforementioned surface high will continue migrating eastward out over the Atlantic through Wednesday night as the next frontal system develops over the Midwest. Models suggest the front pivoting from a west-east orientation to a more north-south orientation as it shifts eastward. Aloft, weak ridging will persist with a residual surface trough to our south. With the front lingering over the region and continued northerly flow, highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with a few pockets of low 90s possible. Overnight lows once again in the upper 60s to low 70s. Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day as upper flow over central NC remains zonal and a surface low passes to the north of the area. The attendant cold front to this low is expected to drop southward across the area on Friday. The upper trough becomes deeper than in yesterday`s simulations and helps to now push the front completely through the area by Saturday afternoon. This will keep the best chances for showers and storms between 18z Friday through 12z Saturday. Continental high pressure to the northwest dries out the area, keeping weather settled through Sunday before a wave out of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a player early next week. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday will drop into the mid 80s for the weekend into early next week. Lows in the low to mid 70s early in the time frame will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s for the later stages of the long term forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period... Central NC is under the influence of high pressure to the north with a cold front stalled south of the area in SC and GS. This will result in VFR conditions across much of central NC through Wednesday afternoon with the exception of some morning MVFR stratus and fog across the south which may impact the KFAY terminal. An isolated shower or storm is possible across the Southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and souther/Western Piedmont. But with limited and coverage and confidence, will omit from the TAF. Otherwise, expect periods of fair weather cumulus this afternoon and periods of BKN cirrus clouds. A layer lower stratus the VFR and MVFR range may develop in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin Valley late tonight and Wednesday morning. Light north to northeast winds at less than 10kts will continue through the period before veering to southeasterly on Wednesday afternoon. Looking ahead... The cold front to the south will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before a stronger cold front moves through the area on Friday and then stalls to our south over the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and a chance of morning fog and stratus. The greatest chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and storms will be Thursday night through Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. -Blaes
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through Thursday or Friday. The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BLAES EQUIPMENT...BLAES

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