Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161904 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will drop southward across central NC late this afternoon and this evening then stall in proximity of the South Carolina border. This front will lift northward as a warm front late Saturday and Saturday evening. Another cold front will sweep across the area late Saturday night followed by high pressure for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM Friday... Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to boost high temperatures this afternoon another 1-2 degrees. Otherwise, timing of showers appears on track. 12Z upper air analysis depicts a deep/fast wly flow over the Carolinas with a sfc cold front well to the west-nw, stretching from Nashville-Beckley-west of D.C. A pre-frontal trough was noted dropping southward into southern VA. This feature may aid to initiate a few showers across our far northern counties around mid day, prior to the frontal arrival this afternoon. Per satellite imagery, appears the bulk of central NC will experience abundant sunshine through early-mid afternoon. With temperatures climbing through the 60s to near 70, locations along and east of highway 1 have a good chance of reaching/exceeding the 80 degree mark. Appears that the Triad region will have a shot of warming into the mid 70s before the clouds thicken/lower. Current PoP forecast appears on track as likely PoPs should suffice as forcing along the boundary marginal, and expected to weaken with time later this afternoon-this evening. Besides the warmth, the other weather story will be the breezy/windy conditions this afternoon. Area 12Z soundings depict a stout westerly wind just off the surface with 35-40kts observed in the 925- 850mb layer. Allowing for some frictional reduction, expect to see wind gusts 30-35 mph over the region this afternoon. ~WSS The cold front is expected to slide through much of the area tonight, possibly stalling along the southern edge of NC while high pressure ridges southward over the rest of the area. Lows tonight are a bit more dependent on the fropa timing and southward progression, but for now expect mid 30s north to mid 40s south. ~KCP && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Friday... Surface high pressure will continue to ridge southwestward into Central NC, advecting cold air in from the northeast. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will advect warm moist air over the cold boundary layer. As a result, expect a cloudy day Saturday with light spotty rain in the morning. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, as a surface low develops to the south and slides northward along the Carolina coast and another upper level shortwave swings just to the west and north of the area the late in the afternoon and into Saturday night. As of the latest model runs, it appears the Triad and points northwest will remain wedged in, while a warm front associated with the developing surface low briefly lifts northward, impinging upon it. The location of these features will have an impact on both temperatures and precipitation, thus decreasing confidence in both. For now, expect high temps in the low 40s NW to low 50s south, while overnight lows will be similar to tonight, mid 30s north to mid 40s south. Chances for rain will increase into the afternoon and decrease overnight, with rain largely expected to taper off by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Friday... ...Record warmth may shatter records Tuesday through Wednesday... The records for daily highs and for daily record high minimum temperatures were included for February 20 and 21 (Tuesday and Wednesday below). These are the most likely days that will see plenty of new records. The end of the weekend will bring clearing skies Sunday, as the much drier air mass is expected to build over the region during the afternoon. Highs should warm readily into the 60s with light and variable winds. This high is forecast to move quickly offshore late Sunday. A warm front will push northward into the area late Sunday night and Monday. Some areas of light rain and showers are expected, with the highest POP in the NW zones again late Sunday night and Monday morning. Afternoon clearing from the south on Monday will lead to highs moderating back into the 60s, except some upper 50s north. The main storm track is forecast to remain to the west and north of central NC this week. This occurs as a very strong and unusual subtropical ridge is forecast to set up just off the south Atlantic coast, most likely waxing Tuesday and Wednesday. However, even late week when changes occur and the ridge does flatten a bit, it appears that cooling will be short lived and tied to fairly progressive surface high pressure areas tracking to our north. This pattern is more typical of April or early May (or even June given the forecast strength of the upper ridge off the SE coast. Sensible weather will be for only a slight chance of lingering drizzle (associated with lingering CAD) Monday morning, otherwise increasing warmth and humidity Tue-Wed. leading to highs potentially in the lower 80s (except upper 70s NW). Lows in the 60s mid to late week will also likely set records. Temps are expected to back off some by Friday, but that will come with a backdoor front and a cooling NE flow instead of anything close to "arctic" intrusions. Rain chances remained tied to the storm track, west and north of our region, with limited QPF this side of the Appalachians through Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Friday... Aviation parameters will deteriorate north-to-south across central NC this afternoon and this evening as a cold front drops southward. Ceilings will lower close to MVFR criteria with MVFR ceilings highly probable in vicinity of the heavier showers. The passage of the front will be noted by the sfc winds veering from a west-sw direction to a northerly direction. Sfc winds will be gusty ahead and immediately behind the front, gusting at times closer to 30 kts. Sfc winds will subside this evening and into the overnight. Widespread low end VFR/MVFR ceilings early Saturday will become predominately MVFR by mid day as an area of light rain overspreads the region. The marginally low ceilings and light rain will persist into Saturday evening, then diminish west-to-east Saturday night. Aviation conditions will briefly improve Sunday then deteriorate again Sunday night into Monday as another low pressure system affects the area. Mostly VFR parameters expected Tuesday and Wednesday, though brief periods of MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility due to late night/early morning fog is possible. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 77 1976 62 1990 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 76 1927 58 1990 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/16 82 1989 62 1935 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS/KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...WSS CLIMATE...KC/Badgett

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