Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011420 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1020 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY... ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND. PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST. THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 AM MONDAY... A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA... ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT- SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA- BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 700 AM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z. EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS AGAIN POINT TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEC NEAR TERM...WS SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...SEC/BLS

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