Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 121849 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 249 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY... THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY... QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS NC FROM THE NE... WHILE THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS SE NC... AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SITS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS TRACKING SLOWLY INLAND... AS WELL AS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PUSH INTO THE FAR SE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BACKGROUND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE SSE... HOWEVER THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGHLY STABLE MID LEVELS AS WELL AS THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT BOTH INLAND MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE. AND THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THE MOUNTAIN STORMS HOLD TO OUR NW. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AFTER SUNDOWN... AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH BELOW-NORMAL PW. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR OVERNIGHT... WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING MIDWEST MCS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE. LOWS 67-71... WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... CONTINUED QUIET AND LARGELY DRY... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NW CWA LATE. WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT EARLY... BUT WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH FORMATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. TODAY`S BELOW NORMAL PW UNDER 1.3 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE FAR NW CWA SUNDAY TO OVER 1.6 INCHES... AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST RAISES THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WORK INTO THE TRIAD REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE LATE-DAY POPS THERE. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN AN ISOLATED POP OVER THE FAR SE CWA... ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL (BOUNDARY-PARALLEL) FLOW FROM THE SW SHOULD TEMPER INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE... EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH CLOUDS LARGELY CONSISTING OF FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS BENEATH SHROUDS OF HIGHER THIN DEBRIS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THICKNESSES POINT TO HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AS GREATER AND THICKER COVERAGE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MIDWEST COMPLEXES SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. WARMER LOWS OF 69-73. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY... A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA (THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS). ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH...THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN (ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS). THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS (FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING OR NOT)...NEVERTHELESS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA OR NOT...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. HOWEVER... LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). THUS...WILL SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. THEN MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WAVE(S) OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S ON MONDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRECIP CHANCES. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS (MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY... THIS MORNING`S FOG AND LIFR STRATUS HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... LEAVING TYPICAL SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC TERMINALS... WHICH WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AT ALL SITES... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR FOG MAINLY AT FAY TONIGHT 08Z-12Z. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF STORMS AT/NEAR CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 8 KTS MAINLY FROM THE EAST OR ESE WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY FROM THE SSW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... INCREASING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS 20Z- 02Z SUNDAY NEAR INT/GSO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (AND ATTENDING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS) STARTING MON NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY TUE/TUE NIGHT... WHEN THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FOR WED/THU ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT ACROSS SE NC... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN PERIODICALLY AT FAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND/OR MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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