Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261908 CCA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST... IN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER COASTAL SC. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO NUDGE IN... AND THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF I95 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS IN THIS MOISTER AIRMASS... WHERE CAPE IS PROGGED TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY CLIMBED TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80... AND ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S. MORNING STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN FROM THE US1 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN IN LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA... AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S... LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY... RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETROGRESS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST WESTWARD TO THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE BLOCKED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESENT A SURFACE PATTERN WITH AN APPEARANCE MUCH LIKE A DAMMING SCENARIO SANS COOLER AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL LIFT/FORCING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE DUE TO WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION...REACHING 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WEST...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH MID 80S EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MIDWEEK AS ERIKA OR HER REMAINS WILL POTENTIALLY BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE. THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AND WILL KEEP ITS IMPACT OUT OF THE EQUATION FOR NOW TO AVOID SEE-SAWING THE POPS EACH MODEL RUN. REGARDLESS...MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE 80S...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 134 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS ARE VFR... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS REMAINING AT KFAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUB-VFR STRATUS... AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG... REDEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF THE ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR. KINT AND KGSO SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ANY STRATUS WILL LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY. LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS... IF ANY... OF TC ERIKA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...30

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