Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250722 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 322 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... A cold front will slide south into the region through today and into tonight as the surface high to the north moves eastward through New England. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue moving eastward out over the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to once again build into the region. Expect highs in the upper 80s north to mid 90s south. Overnight lows in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Showers and thunderstorms could develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be the most comfortable day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat index values for much of the region. The aforementioned surface high will continue migrating eastward out over the Atlantic through Wednesday night as the next frontal system develops over the Midwest. Models suggest the front pivoting from a west-east orientation to a more north-south orientation as it shifts eastward. Aloft, weak ridging will persist with a residual surface trough to our south. With the front lingering over the region and continued northerly flow, highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with a few pockets of low 90s possible. Overnight lows once again in the upper 60s to low 70s. Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
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As of 320 AM Tuesday... Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day as upper flow over central NC remains zonal and a surface low passes to the north of the area. The attendant cold front to this low is expected to drop southward across the area on Friday. The upper trough becomes deeper than in yesterday`s simulations and helps to now push the front completely through the area by Saturday afternoon. This will keep the best chances for showers and storms between 18z Friday through 12z Saturday. Continental high pressure to the northwest dries out the area, keeping weather settled through Sunday before a wave out of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a player early next week. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday will drop into the mid 80s for the weekend into early next week. Lows in the low to mid 70s early in the time frame will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s for the later stages of the long term forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 150 AM Tuesday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys at KFAY and lesser so at KRWI during the pre-dawn hours. Any sub-vfr conditions should clear up after sunrise. Broken VFR cigs may stick around for much of the daytime hours in the far southeast (KFAY), with scattered cloud cover expected elsewhere. A cold front will approach and move into the region from the north today, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible along and ahead of it. Terminals that experience storms could see brief periods of sub-vfr conditions, otherwise expect VFR conditions to dominate through the period. Looking ahead: Expect mainly VFR conditions to dominate, though periods of sub-vfr conditions will be possible during the aft/eve should showers/storms develop over a terminal. Chances for convection will increase through the period. There will be an increasing chances for early morning sub-vfr stratus to develop late in the week and into the weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through Thursday or Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/BLAES NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...KC EQUIPMENT...BLAES

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