Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271935 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 235 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY TONIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST IN ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY... MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST GRADUALLY WANES. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE THE LAST PLACE TO SEE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ROTATE SOUTH FROM EASTERN VA INTO OUR NE ZONES THROUGH LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE... SKIES SHOULD BE COME CLEAR IN ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT AS OF MID AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING BREEZES. DEW POINTS AROUND 30 CONTINUED TO HOLD IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THESE DEW POINTS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT DURING THE EVENING REACHING THE TEENS BY 12Z. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ENOUGH IN SUCH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT UNDER THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE IN THE DRY AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT 20-25. IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST... READINGS MAY END UP BEING IN THE UPPER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL TEMPER THE CHILLY AIR MASS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST SOUTHERN PIEDMONT). IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREFORE... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL QUASH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...SO WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...LIMITED TO A NARROW WINDOW FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH PERHAPS MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MIXING AND LIMITED TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MODERATE MINS FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OFFSHORE...ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FLOW OF COOL AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE AREA...SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY COOLING TO THE LOW AND MID 40S SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. MINS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. THE HIGH EDGES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE TO KEEP MINS FROM CRASHING AS DEEPLY SUNDAY MORNING...LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 30. THINGS ARE MORE INTERESTING/ACTIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING DEEPLY INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAM. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRONG COASTAL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS...MAYBE A ROGUE STORM OR TWO...LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH AN H85 JET OF 50+ KNOTS AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN PHASE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE...FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LATE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN ENDS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST...WITH MINS CRASHING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY..LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY... && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS... THEN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NE ZONES (KRDU-KRWI) THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BADGETT

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