Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260726 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING... WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIGE AXIS IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. CURRENTLY IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHRINKING AREA OF CLOUD COVER TRAPPED BELOW THE PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 850 MB. THE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.... ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. THUS... WOULD NOT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO HAVE AS BIG OF IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 5-10 METERS... WOULD EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. THIS YIELDS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT (LESS THAN THIS PAST EVENING/CURRENTLY)... THINK SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR... WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. WITH DEWPOINTS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.... THINK LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY: HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR CENTRAL NC... EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY... VS TODAY. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S... AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID- UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AND A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW LINGERING VFR CIGS NEAR KGSO/KINT/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE AT KRWI. THUS... HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KRWI FOR SOME PRE-DAWN SUB-VFR VISBYS. HAVE LIMITED THE RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN HOW MUCH PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS WE WILL SEE THIS MORNING. GIVEN A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY... DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE 2-3.5 KFT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING... BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUB-VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS... OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

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