Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 150813 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 413 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the region will bring dry weather today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and Monday, bringing a chance of rain. This front will usher in much cooler air for Tuesday into Wednesday, with dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... Expect areas of fog and stratus to roll in overnight as dewpoint depressions are only a few degrees at this point. Expect conditions to begin to deteriorate everywhere by 08z with the worst conditions after 09z. Otherwise no precipitation is expected and winds will remain light and variable overnight. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with warmest temps in the east under the stratus blanket. For today, the high pressure breaks down ahead of a frontal system advancing into the area from the northwest. By this afternoon a surface trough will set up across the area with southerly flow bringing warm air advection into central NC. This will boost high temperatures back up into the low to mid 80s. Although there will be increased moisture advection, conditions are still expected to be dry at least through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... Rain chances will pick up this evening after 00z and into the overnight hours. Lows in the mid 50s in the NW Piedmont to the mid 60s in the southeast with the numbers in the Triad dependent upon how quickly the colder airmass moves into the area. Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sunday... High pressure will settle in Monday night into Tuesday, bringing drier and much cooler temperatures to the region. The high will linger over the region through the end of the week leading to a gradual warming trend as the airmass modifies under strong insolation. The coolests time period will be Monday night through Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the mid 60s. Readings will warm a couple of degrees each day thereafter, reaching the upper 70s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... MVFR ceilings continue across the far eastern Coastal Plain including RWI. Elsewhere, lowering dewpoint depressions and a light surface wind, capped by warming aloft to reinforce the surface-based stability overnight, we should see sub-VFR conditions redeveloping around 08Z at all sites, with widespread fog and thin stratus. The fog and stratus are expected to burn off rather quickly with heating at all sites between 13z and 14z Sunday, yielding generally clear skies beyond 15z, with a breeze from the SW at 7-12 kts. Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will hold through the evening, but MVFR cigs and patchy rain will move in NW to SE between 05z and 08z Monday. INT/GSO will trend back to VFR as dry air moves in behind the front shortly after 12z Mon, while RDU/RWI/FAY won`t improve to VFR until after 16z Mon. VFR conditions are likely late Mon through Thu as dry and cool high pressure builds in from the W and NW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JF/Hartfield NEAR TERM...JF/Ellis SHORT TERM...JF/Ellis LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...JF/Hartfield

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