Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290730 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED... WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY... ...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD MID WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...77 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...77/VINCENT

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