Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 310732 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 325 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY... A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS... OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING 1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS WED-SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING. STILL...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNEST. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... MAINLY IN THE TRIAD AREA (KGSO AND KINT)...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB NEAR TERM...NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...NP

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