Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261841 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY... ...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... ...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH. UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH. TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM MONDAY... BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS (WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW AND WARMEST SE. FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY... AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT. SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10- 15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS AWAY. LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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