Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230629 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY... ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY... SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...KRD/MLM

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