-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
217
FXUS62 KRAH 141048
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Isolated flash flooding is again possible this afternoon and
evening, with marginal to slight risks in place. The highest
probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions.

There is also a marginal risk of a few damaging wet microbursts
with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening,
mainly over the Piedmont.

The combination of strong heating, very weak steering flow, left
over outflow boundaries, and high (2+ inches) precipitable water
will lead to scattered slow moving, heavy rain producing
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The highest
probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the
latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the
higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels
that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to
Hillsborough and Roxboro. Just as in recent days, high instability
will develop with heating. MLCapes will reach over 2500 j/kg and
this may lead to isolated damaging wind events, mainly in the
Piedmont region. Highs will be within a degree or two of the highs
Sunday. Expect mostly 90 to 95. The chance of thunderstorms will
linger well into the evening and early morning Tuesday. The highest
probabilities this evening appear to be over the north-central and
NE portions of the Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. Lows 70-75 with
patchy late night stratus and some fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 AM Monday...

The highest probabilities of thunderstorms and flash flooding may
shift slightly west Tuesday afternoon and evening as the guidance
and CAMS suggest the western Piedmont into the NW Piedmont may very
well have the higher chances of slow moving PM thunderstorms.
Combined with the existing wet soils and nearby urban locations,
there will still be at least a marginal risk of flash flooding on
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. There is still a chance of
thunderstorms in the south and east; however, ridging aloft should
extend a bit further inland Tuesday afternoon possibly limiting some
of the coverage of convection there. Highs 88-94 in general, with
lows 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

* A typical summertime pattern but with more extreme (above average)
  geopotential heights and temperatures than previous 30-year
  climate records

A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the cntl N. Atlantic
to the Southeast and lwr MS Valley through the weekend, with
associated standardized 500 height anomalies of generally 1-2 sigma
along the South Atlantic coast and a plume of continued 2" PWs on
its nrn periphery over cntl NC, through the period. As the center of
the sub-tropical ridge drifts toward the lwr MS Valley, mid-level
flow may assume a more nwly to wnwly component and direct shortwave
impulses and/or MCVs into the srn Middle Atlantic by Sat or Sun.

Underlying surface high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its
wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and
also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may
briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC next weekend, as the
aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of
very weakly falling heights aloft.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to
suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain
forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, through at least Fri -
with probably only scattered coverage along those features. It will
otherwise remain hot, or become increasingly-so, and humid. High
temperatures will likely trend to one or two categories above
average and low temperatures two to three categories above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM Monday...

A brief period of IFR to LIFR conditions with patchy fog/stratus
may occur at RDU, FAY, and RWI through 13z, otherwise generally
VFR conditions should prevail after sunrise through 18z. Scattered
showers and storms possible between 18z and 06z today and
tonight, with the best chances between 00z and 06z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett