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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 250648
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move southwestward through the area
today, as a cooler air mass pushes in from the north. This front
will weaken and move back northeastward as a warm front on Monday.
Another cold front will approach from the west Monday night, and
then slowly cross the region Tuesday through Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /today and tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 250 AM Sunday...

The backdoor front has pushed to the SSW through the northeast third
of the CWA thus far, and will continue this progression through
today, albeit with a slowing trend. This will mean mostly cloudy
skies for all but the far western and southern sections as post-
frontal stratus spreads in, although this is likely to break up this
afternoon, allowing peeks of sunshine. In the SW CWA, models suggest
that the cooler and more stable low level air may be sufficiently
delayed this afternoon to allow for marginal elevated
destabilization there, so have added isolated thunder in this area
this afternoon into early evening. Low level thicknesses will be
near or just above normal to start the day, however with minimal
recovery today and the expansiveness of low clouds through much of
the day, expect highs from the mid 70s near the VA border to the mid
80s in the far SW. Stable low levels persist tonight, with some
lingering moisture beneath the relative warm layer aloft (between
850 and 700 mb) that should be stubborn to dislodge especially in
the western CWA where moist upglide will hold. Expect partly cloudy
skies tonight east (much weaker to absent moist upglide and slightly
drier low levels) and mostly cloudy to cloudy west with patchy light
rain or drizzle possible. Lows from around 60 near the VA border to
upper 60s SW. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM Saturday...

To be updated shortly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

Monday through Tuesday night: Surface high pressure is expected to
shift eastward and off the Northeast U.S. coast on Monday, with any
hybrid CAD eroding from SE to NW with possibly some lingering light
precip (mainly west where the damming should linger the longest).
High temps are expected to generally range from the mid to upper 70s
north/northwest to the lower 80s south.

A mid/upper level low will slowly wobble east and southward across
the Great Lakes region early next week, allowing an associated cold
front to to approach the area on Monday night into early Tuesday,
then slowly cross the area on Tuesday into Tuesday evening as the
cold front begins to become more parallel to the mid level flow
(helping to slow its progress). With regard to any severe threat
instability looks to be weak, however, deep layer shear is expected
to be respectable. Thus, we could see a some storms even some weakly
organization convection, but the severe potential will remain quite
low. Highs Tuesday are generally expected to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s,  with lows Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 60s and
lows Wednesday morning ranging from the mid to upper 50s nw to the
lower to mid 60s se.

Wednesday through Saturday: the mid to upper level flow pattern is
in question mid to late next week, with regard to what happens to
aforementioned deep mid/upper low over the Great Lakes early next
week. The latest GFS continue to show the feature becoming a deep
trough and moving through the area Wednesday/Wednesday night,
helping to push the front (which is expected to linger across
coastal portions of NC on Wednesday) offshore and away from the
area. Meanwhile, this is the second run in a row of the ECMWF
showing the mid/upper low sinking southward towards our area mid
week, and lingering the low as it becomes cut off from the
westerlies. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble members didn`t show much support
for the scenario, so will keep the forecast dry from Wednesday
evening onward (but will need to watch this). Otherwise, surface
high pressure is expected to build/extend into the area through the
period, with highs and lows expected to be near to slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

RDU/RWI have already seen a trend toward IFR or low-end MVFR cigs as
stratus pours in behind a backdoor cold front pushing toward the SSW
through NC this morning. This low-end MVFR or IFR stratus will
continue moving through the remainder of central NC through
daybreak, with winds shifting to light (under 8 kts) from the NE or
ENE. A period of MVFR vsbys is also possible this morning through
13z. Cigs will slowly lift to MVFR areawide by midday, with lowest
cigs holding at INT/GSO, then to VFR at RWI/RDU/FAY by 19z while
MVFR cigs hold at INT/GSO, through the end of the TAF valid period.
A few light showers or sprinkles are possible at all sites today,
with little to no risk of thunder.

Looking beyond 06z early Mon morning, MVFR conditions will hold at
INT/GSO with VFR cigs elsewhere through Mon morning, followed by VFR
conditions areawide Mon afternoon/evening. IFR conditions are
expected to develop late Mon night, trending to MVFR Tue morning
with improving rain chances, as a cold front approaches slowly from
the west. A period of sub-VFR conditions is likely late Tue into Wed
as the front moves through with scattered to numerous showers and a
few storms. Conditions will improve to VFR from west to east Wed
night, lasting through Thu behind the front. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Hartfield