Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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360 FXUS62 KRAH 261742 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Monday... Little adjustment required to the near term forecast. Deep west-sw flow will continue to maintain a dry air mass over central NC this afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. A near sfc north-northwest flow has advected a less humid air mass into our region with sfc dewpoints at late morning in the 50s. These pleasant dewpoints will drop a few more degrees this afternoon as drier air aloft is mixed towards the surface. Afternoon high temps solidly in the mid 80s. Tonight, the approach of a minor upper disturbance will yield patchy mid-high level cloudiness, primarily after midnight, and mainly west of highway 1. The presence of the dry sub cloud layer will prohibit any rain from reaching the surface. Min temps mainly 60-65 degrees with a few upper 50s in the northern Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a few showers...in the mid morning to early afternoon west...and in the afternoon to evening in the east. Highs will top out in the upper 70s north to lower 80s south. With clouds departing early tomorrow night, mins will radiate down into the mid and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Monday... A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week. At the surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels. Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach sufficient levels.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Saturday/... As of 140 PM Monday... VFR parameters expected across central NC through Tuesday. The approach of a mid-upper level disturbance will result in patchy mid- high level cloudiness later tonight through Tuesday. Enough lift may exists to cause a few showers to develop late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. However, occurrence at any one TAF sites appears minimal at this time, so will omit from forecast. Sfc winds through Tuesday afternoon will be less than 8 kts. In addition, ceilings will be at or above 6000 ft. High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday, then linger overhead through Thursday night. As this high exits offshore Friday, the return sly flow will advect a moist unstable air mass into our region, setting the stage for scattered afternoon-evening convection, and early morning low clouds and fog. Thus, the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will increase, beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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