Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 080751 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 251 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the Carolinas will weaken and shift east tonight. An arctic cold front will move through the area Thursday, followed by an expansive arctic high for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 750 PM Wednesday... The warm and more moist advection from the southwest has already become evident over NC, especially just above the surface through 5k feet. Cirrus and cirrostratus were also increasing in the fast flow up at jet stream level from the Tennessee Valley. Either cloudy or becoming cloudy will be forecast for the rest of the night. We will also raise temperatures a few degrees given the dew points were already in the 40s outside of the NW Piedmont (30s). Lows generally should bottom out in the lower to mid 40s as the clouds thicken up. There may be some light fog; however, with the increasing stratus it appears that widespread or dense fog is not likely at this time. Other than a minimal chance of some very light rain or sprinkles, there appears to be little in the way of mechanisms to produce anything more that some shallow lift for measurable rain. Expect only a few hundredths in the western Piedmont by 12z. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Wednesday... Any light warm advection driven precip Thursday morning will shift east and may consolidate or become a little more showery as fgen strengthens and the cold front sweeps across the area. Northwest flow and increasing cold advection will clear skies by midday to early afternoon, though the brunt of the cold advection will likely be delayed until later Thursday night. Highs should reach the low to mid 50s. Strong CAA will continue Thursday as expansive Arctic high begins east into the region. Overnight will fall into the mid 20s to upper 20s with a steady wind near 10mph and wind chills in the teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Thursday... Expect highs on Saturday to be similar to Friday, albeit a few degrees warmer, as arctic high pressure centered over the region begins to modify. The latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance remains as divided as previous runs with regard to the timing/evolution of the next shortwave/surface low/cold front anticipated to approach the Carolinas from from the west early next week. Since long range guidance has failed to converge on a similar solution thus far for Sunday/Monday, forecast confidence remains well below normal. As such, little change will be made to the long term forecast (Sun-Wed) at this time. -Vincent
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 AM THURSDAY... Weak/shallow upglide/WAA ahead of an arctic cold front that will move through the area between 12 to 18z Thursday will result in the development of IFR to MVFR CIGS areawide between 06 to 12z. Some patchy/spotty light rain is also possible, but MVFR VSBYS should be the lowest category forecast. Strong post-frontal low-level dry cold air advection will clear out the Sub-VFR ceilings from west to east between 12 to 18z. Expect sustained west-northwest winds to 8-12kt, with gusts into the 18 to 22kt range, strongest in the west. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions will be early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL

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