Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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378 FXUS62 KRAH 221904 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 304 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry surface ridge will extend southwest into the region through late-week as high pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridging extends across the GOM and Deep South. Meanwhile, a strengthening dry air surface ridge building eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region will deliver noticeably drier/less humid air into the Carolinas, with dewpoints falling into the 50s this afternoon and evening. With the dry air in place and clear skies and light winds overnight, strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s north, to lower 60s elsewhere, some of the coolest readings that many places have seen for nearly 2 months. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north the area on Tuesday. At the surface, dry air surface ridge in place across the Mid-Atlantic States will retain lower dewpoint air over the Carolinas, resulting in comfortable RH values for late August. Seasonable highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 south. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 302 PM Monday... Surface high pressure off the Midatlantic Coast will extend southeastward in to the area through Thursday, as upper level ridging over the Southeast strengthens through the end of the week. A weak cold front will drop as far south as VA Thursday and Friday, but will quickly weaken as the main upper level energy is directed well north near the Canadian Maritimes by the building ridge. Forecast will remain dry in this regime, with increasing upper level heights supporting a return to temperatures in the 90s by Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 PM Monday... 24-hr TAF period: Dry air surface ridge building into the are will result in VFR conditions through the period. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through mid to late week as deep layer ridging prevails through Thursday. A weakening and moisture starved dry cold front will approach the area Friday-Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...CBL

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