Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171441 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1040 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY... AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY... REST OF TODAY... PRIMARY CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH... AND IN LOOKING FURTHER UP VIA THE UPPER AIR ANALYSES... IT APPEARS THAT THE 925 MB FRONT HAS ALSO PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER... WITH THE 850 MB FRONT NOT FAR BEHIND. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS LED TO A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THAN WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY... WITH THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN CWA WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE. BUT DESPITE THE MEAGER LIFT... THERE REMAINS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA... SO STILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... THE PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TO VALUES JUST AROUND A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL... IN LINE WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND INITIALLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW ACROSS THE NRN CWA GIVEN THE COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND PARTICULARLY THE DRYING/STABILIZING MID LEVELS... ALONG WITH SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT (CONFINED TO 850-700 MB)... HOWEVER THE LINGERING WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE SRN CWA WILL BRING ABOUT HIGHER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE) AND A GREATER THREAT OF A FEW STORMS... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING AT 20-25 KTS... SO WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ALTHOUGH IF THICKER OR MORE EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS COMES TO PASS... COVERAGE MAY BE LOW. HIGHS 74-80 ACROSS THE AREA... REFLECTING AN UPWARD BUMP ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT THE SUNSHINE. -GIH TONIGHT...EXPECT WEAK CAD AIR MASS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. BULK OF CONVECTION IN THE SE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. MAY SEE A SLIGHT UPSURGE IN LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD MORNING AS MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT A MINOR S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY 60-65. -WSS
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY...MINOR S/W PROJECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN EROSION OF RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...MODELS TYPICALLY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TRANSITION. FAVOR A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TREND THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS LEADS TO MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. IF EROSION IS EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS MAY BE AS MUCH A 3- 4 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE PIEDMONT. CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST-SE SECTIONS. JUST WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROJECTED SO EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG BUT INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MAY LIMIT/INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE SE HALF. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY... A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE LEFT BEHIND...OFFSHORE THE SE US COAST THIS WKND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE- ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US DAYS 5-7. BENEATH THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A CANADIAN-SOURCE SFC HIGH (AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON-MON NIGHT. THOUGH THE CANADIAN RIDGING WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. IN ADDITION...THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALSO DIRECT MARITIME MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND THE RIDGE...TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...SKIES ARE APT TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FRI-SAT. WARMER YET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SUN-MON - LIKELY LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ATTENDING THE FRONT LATE MON...GIVEN A LIMITED GULF MOISTURE FEED. COOLER TUE...AND THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT RAIN (ESPECIALLY EAST) PER THE 12Z EC...THE 00Z EC HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A "CLEANER" FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR TUE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY... LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A COOL MOIST STABLE AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING KINT/KGSO AND KRDU. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. NEAR KFAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT INTO THE HIGH END MVFR-LOW END VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BE GREATER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAY. THE ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GAINS GREATER INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...WSS

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