Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260116 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 916 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MID TO LATE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY... REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: ASIDE FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NC MTNS/FTHLS...WHERE RETURN FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY EXPECTED AND CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH A STEADY 10KT SWLY BREEZE RESULTING IN GOOD BL MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY UNIFORM MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH LOW-LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM AND MOISTEN WITHIN THE W-SWLY RETURN FLOW. LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC FTHLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AMONGST A GROWING BUT STILL WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS. HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. A WEAKENING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL TIMING/INCREASING BL CIN COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION TO BE SIMILAR WEAKENING. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY... THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA A COLD FRONT MAKES IT. TO START THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND MAY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THIS...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IS WHERE THE SMALLEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND THAT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS TREND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TOO HIGH. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE THE GREATEST...BUT GIVEN THE DECENT INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY... CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER (WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY) WITH REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST/WEST...AND THEN FURTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING IS ABLE TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE/PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE LIKELY AND GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 845 PM MONDAY... WARM AND DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR RANGE LOW CLOUDS (FEW-SCATTERED) OVER SOUTHERN NC AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. LIGHT SSW WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY TUE. OUTLOOK: A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...POSSIBLY INTO THE NC NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BY TUE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED BY THE SOUTHWARD- SETTLING OUTFLOW AND AFFECT AREAS FROM FROM INT/GSO TO RDU AND RWI BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WED. THE CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL THEN BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POST-FRONTAL SUB-VFR CEILINGS (ON THE COOL/NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY) PARTICULARLY FROM THE VA/NC BORDER NORTHWARD... THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...26

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