Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180216 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1015 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY... ...WILL CANCEL FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A DENSE MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE MEANTIME...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING WITHIN THE NELY MARITIME FETCH COMING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. ITS PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE THESE OVERWHELMING SATELLITE/ OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN BL DEWPOINTS SUGGESTING WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND A DECREASED THREAT OF FROST AND A DECREASING THREAT OF FROST. WILL WARM UP LOWS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL CANCEL FROST ADVISORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 60-65... THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN LINE TO DELIVER ANOTHER CHILLY RAINY SYSTEM TO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY INTO A PART OF SATURDAY... AS THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSER TO THE REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DAY IN THE 40S/50S AGAIN WITH RAIN SATURDAY WITH THE NE FLOW... CLOUDS AND RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES... BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY DRIFT WELL OFF THE SE US COAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE... THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY. HOWEVER... A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL BE CUT OFF. HIGHS MAY BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES IF THE BOUNDARY DOES INDEED SLIP SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... READINGS WILL WARM AGAIN BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ADVECT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY CREATING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. IF LOW STRATUS DOES FORM...IT WILL MIX OUT/LIFT RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...THUS RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDINESS WILL THEN INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER 18Z ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END THE WEEKEND AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BSD LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...KRD/JET

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