Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211936 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 236 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak area of low pressure will develop off the Florida coast, and then track quickly northeastward along the Southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 236 PM Tuesday... Latest satellite shows a southern stream short wave trough in the NE GOM, lifting NEWD. A resulting sfc wave is taking shape east of FL, and models prog this wave to lift NEWD basically along the Gulf Stream offshore of the Carolina coast. While the heaviest rain with this system is expected to remain well to our east invof the sfc wave, most guidance suggests some very light rain NW of the sfc wave will quickly move NNE across parts of central NC tonight. Model consensus suggests that the Triad area will see very little rain (perhaps a trace up to a tenth inch), with better rain chances along and east of the US-1 corridor, where a couple tenths of an inch of rain are possible. It`s worth noting that the latest HRRR is more generous with rainfall amounts compared to most other models, particularly from I-95 eastward, where it has 0.5 inch or more of QPF. Lows tonight from the mid 40s Triad to around 50 across the coastal plain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 236 PM Tuesday... A northern stream short wave, currently moving across the Midwest, will move east and sweep across central NC. Its attendant sfc cold front will move through during the morning into mid-day hours, followed by subtle CAA, subsidence and drying in its wake. Forecast soundings suggest skies will clear out during the late morning with sunshine by afternoon. The resulting airmass combined with afternoon sunshine will provide seasonable high temps...low-mid 60s. Northerly winds behind the front may become gusty in the late morning and afternoon, with gusts peaking up to 20 mph at times. High pressure will gradually build to our north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Despite CAA earlier in the day, high clouds moving up from the south combined with some lingering light wind (sfc high center to our north) will result in highs a few degrees warmer than they otherwise would be under clear calm conditions. Look for lows from the lower 30s north (lighter wind closer to the high center) to upper 30s south (where thicker highs clouds will be found).
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... High pressure and its associated cold airmass to the north will expand into North Carolina on Thursday. A brief warmup will occur Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front that will pass through Saturday afternoon and evening. Very amplified trough in the eastern US Sunday will quickly move eastward with axis off the coast by Sunday night. Mid-level ridging builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. Temperature forecast for Monday has been adjusted upward a few degrees as trough looks to be moving faster than previous guidance was suggesting. If future model runs continue to show quick trough progression, temperature forecasts for Monday and Tuesday will likely be adjusted upward even further. Waves of low pressure off the southeast US coastline Thursday and Friday will keep more substantial rain to the east and south of the region. Some spotty light rain or sprinkles may clip the extreme southeast areas Friday night but confidence is decreasing that any rainfall will make it that far west and north. Otherwise, it will be a rather dry period in the longer range. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 113 PM Tuesday... Through 22/18z: VFR conditions attm with mostly high clouds. Clouds will gradually lower and thicken through the rest of the day, with MVFR cigs possible after 22/01z. In addition, a few scattered showers are possible between 22/04z and 22/10z, mainly east of the Triad. Flt conditions with any showers may briefly drop to low-MVFR or even IFR. Between 22/10z and 22/13z, cigs may briefly drop to low-IFR across the coastal plain, including KRWI and KFAY. Skies will clear out with flight conditions returning to VFR after 22/15z in the wake of the departing trough. After 22/18Z: VFR conditions will prevail across central NC Wednesday afternoon through early Saturday. The next cold front will cross central NC Saturday night, perhaps resulting in a brief period of sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions returning on Sunday in the wake of the front. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...np

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