Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 171956 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 256 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST FRIDAY... THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT EXTENDED INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. A WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW/MID FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ENERGY LOCATED ACROSS TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON BEGINS TO LIFT EAST AND SHEARS OUT. NOT SURE HOW OPAQUE THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE THE WANNING CRESCENT MOON FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE 31 TO 36 RANGE. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES EARLY ON THURSDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLIDES BY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY. RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS AND WE EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AND HAVE LOWERED POPS. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY REACH THE 48 TO 55 RANGE. LOOK FOR LESS VARIABILITY IN LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 32 AND 36 DEGREES. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 254 PM WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA... WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GOM LATE FRIDAY.. AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN IN TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE... HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY... AND CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY... AND DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. HIGH THIN CLOUDS NOW OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY... AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST... DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND THE GULF/SOUTHEAST STATES. BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR VSBYS... BUT POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH MON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE TX GULF COAST LATE FRI... WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY... TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM EARLY SAT MORNING (POTENTIALLY BEFORE DAYBREAK) THROUGH SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LOW CIGS COULD HOLD THROUGH MON AS WELL. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...HARTFIELD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.