Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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692 FXUS62 KRAH 211424 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1024 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states for the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1024 AM Thursday... A weak upper low/concentric vort max across eastern NC will drift slowly eastward throughout the day and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. This feature coupled with steep low-level lapse rates associated with strong insolation will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of the Triangle within the upper trough Dpva axis. H8 temps and low-level thickness are forecast to drop off ever so slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range. Any convection will die off with loss of heating. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Thursday... A large ridge, centered over the Midwest, is expected to extend over our region Friday and Saturday. With the low level flow from the NNE and the main front well south, dry weather along with slightly above normal temperatures can be expected. Lows generally 60-65 north, mid to upper 60s south. Highs lower to mid 80s north, and mid to upper 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Thursday... Obviously, most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC official track. Currently, models and the NHC suggest a northward movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks early to mid week. Plenty of time to watch. For now, dry and seasonably warm conditions expected for our region under high pressure. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical climatological variability) each day. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 635 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period. However, another round of patchy sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible this morning during the pre-dawn hours. Fog prone KRWI will stand the greatest chance of seeing any IFR/LIFR visbys. Any sub-VFR visbys are expected to quickly dissipate with sunrise. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon across central NC, primarily across southern portions of the region as a slow moving mid to upper level trough crosses the region. However, confidence is too low to include any mention the the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue late week through early next week across the area. However, patchy sub-VFR conditions in the pre-dawn hours may be possible each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...BSD

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