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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 171129
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
730 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast states to the central
Appalachians, while Jose tracks northward, well east of the NC
coast, through early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Little change to our weather pattern will maintain warm and dry
conditions across central NC in the near term.

Areas of fog with pockets of locally dense fog probable this morning
across the northern coastal plain with patchy fog likely elsewhere
east of highway 1. Any fog/low clouds that develop will
lift/dissipate prior to 14Z.

Otherwise, an area of high pressure to our west and Hurricane Jose`
drifting northward well off the South carolina coast will maintain a
nely low level flow, strongest over the coastal plain. The gradual
tightening of the sfc pressure pattern will result in steady north
northeast winds 8-10kts in the coastal plain with infrequent gusts
15-18kts. Weaker winds expected across the piedmont. Similar to
Saturday, an isolated shower or two possible east of highway 1
though bulk of communities over the east will remain dry.
Temperatures this afternoon expected to be comparable to Saturday,
generally in the mid 80s with a few upper 80s in the far south-
southwest.

Tonight, more of the same with partly cloudy skies west and variably
cloudy skies east as the cloud shield associated with Jose` begins
to skirt our eastern periphery. Min temps generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Monday and Monday night, expect little change in our weather pattern
as the sfc ridge maintains a position to our west and Jose meanders
northward well offshore. This set up will maintain a low level nely
flow. Expect more clouds than sun over our coastal plain, with a
mixture of sun and clouds across the west. Afternoon temperatures
expected to remain warm, generally in the mid 80s. Isolated showers
possible Monday afternoon, primarily along and east of I-95, though
forcing appears rather weak.

Jose` makes its closest approach to the NC coast Monday night. This
will lead tom a steady nely flow across our eastern counties though
sustained wind speeds should remain less than 10kts. Expect a decent
cloud coverage over our eastern counties though forcing remains
weak/non-existent, so showers, if any, should be few and far
between.

Will begin to see improving sky conditions across the east Tuesday
afternoon as Jose` pulls away from the NC coast. This will lead to
increasing sunshine and a lighter sfc wind. Afternoon temperatures
once again in the mid 80s with a minimal chance for a shower along
our eastern periphery.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Latest guidance suggests our forecast area will remain between
several large-scale systems right through the long term period, with
either neutral or subsident vertical motion and limited
opportunities for precip during the period.  Temps will remain above
normal Wed and Thu given the lack of any significant airmass change,
then perhaps cooling back to normal Fri and Sat with some suggestion
in the models that ridging to our north will advect slightly cooler
air into our area.

Another system we`re closely watching is Jose and its eventual
track.  The ECMWF has been very consistent the past several runs
showing Jose making a cyclonic loop Wed-Fri offshore south of the
New England region, before drifting west and coming ashore across
the Mid-Atlantic region late in the weekend.  Should that happen,
our area will be on the southern periphery of Jose remnants, with the
main impact perhaps being some light rain across our northern zones
late in the weekend.

Of course we`re also closely watching Maria, and while the latest
ECMWF looks interesting in the 8 to 10 day time-frame, inevitably a
lot will change in the models during the next 8 to 10 days!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 730 AM Sunday...

Circulation around an area of high pressure stretching north-to-
south from the eastern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians
and Hurricane Jose positioned well offshore of the NC coast will
maintain a low level nely flow into our region through the beginning
of the work week. This flow will advect enough moisture to result in
areas of fog and low clouds, primarily across the coastal plain
counties, during the pre-dawn/early morning hours for the next few
mornings. Pockets of IFR/LIFR visibility due to fog in vicinity of
KRWI will lift/dissipate prior to 15Z. Elsewhere, patchy low clouds
or fog will lift/dissipate by 13Z. VFR conditions should dominate in
vicinity of the Triad terminals.

Later this afternoon, isolated showers are probable across the
coastal plain though occurrence at KRWI appears minimal at this time.

This weather pattern should remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday.

For the middle of the work week, an area of high pressure will build
aloft in the wake of Jose, leading to a warm and dry period. As the
atmosphere dries out, the occurrence of late night/early morning fog
and low clouds in the coastal plain will decrease.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...WSS