Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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563 FXUS62 KRAH 292344 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week. A cold front will slowly cross North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, then get hung up along the Atlantic coastline into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 136 PM Sunday... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected once again this afternoon Early afternoon radar and satellite imagery reveal developing convection across central NC. Two areas have blossomed thus far: the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain in the vicinity of a stalled/remnant surface boundary from Saturday`s convection, and the foothills to our west. In between those areas, the cu field has rapidly matured over the past 3 hours. CAMs are still struggling to catch on to the present situation. They don`t show much in the way of additional convective initiation until much later today, and even then the guidance is most enthused about precip chances across the western Piedmont and largely overlooking the Coastal Plain. In reality, it would seem that both of these areas will be the initial focal points for storm development, with colliding outflows serving to trigger additional storms through the central portion of our CWA along US-1. I`m going to maintain the idea of PoPs everywhere today, keeping the highest values in the western Piedmont, but accounting for storm potential across the entirety of central NC. The stalled upper low to our west along with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/KG are of enough concern to warrant PoPs that are higher than guidance would otherwise indicate. As for temperatures, look for late day highs to top out in the mid 90s, with lows ranging from the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 70s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 136 PM Sunday... * Similar synoptic setup continues on Monday, with scattered showers and storms. The stalled upper low should begin to wash out tomorrow, eventually opening up a bit and moving through the western Piedmont tomorrow afternoon as broad longwave troughing moves eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Much like today, steady southerly flow, remnant boundaries, and 2000-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE will all set the stage favorably for diurnally driven convection across the area. Highest PoPs in the western Piedmont tomorrow afternoon, with at least some 20-30 percent values everywhere given the potential for colliding outflows and subsequent development. As for temperatures, look for highs to reach the low to mid 90s, with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 136 PM Sunday... * Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase late Tuesday afternoon through early Wed morning and bring a risk for strong to severe storms and isolated instances of flash flooding. A broad, low-amplitude trough will swing across Great Lakes Tues and towards the Newfoundland and Labrador Canadian Province by Wed morning. Generally weak H5 height falls and remnant MCVs within the base of the trough will be the primary driver in showers/storms Tues into Wed morning. A weak cold front, but more likely an effective cold front from convective outflow, is forecast to traverse the region late Tues afternoon through the overnight hours and result in showers/storms during this time. Dew points in the low/mid 70s should foster weak to moderate instability with diurnal heating over the Carolinas. Mid-level flow is generally weak (15 to 20 kts) and backing wind profile above 500mb should result in mostly unorganized convection, but strong to severe wind gusts may still be possible from isolated water-loaded downbursts underneath the deepest storms. Lingering elevated instability, a slow moving front, and PWAT around 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile) will make at least isolated instances of flash flooding a possibility late Tues into Wed morning. The effective front will slowly sag southeastward and eventually hang up over eastern NC and provide some additional focus for storms Wed before another weak front is forecast to push into the area and provide a reinforcing shot of relatively drier air for the latter half of the week. This should limit storms Thu-Sat and keep heat indices mostly in the 90s despite high temps recovering into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Sunday... Convection appears to be waning with the last several scans of the radar. However, there are still pockets of scattered storms across the northwest Piedmont and along the Triangle near RDU/RWI tied to surface outflow boundaries. The first few hours of the TAF could favor some isolated showers or storms, most favored at GSO, RDU, and RWI, but confidence in any of these storms impacting any one terminal is low. The TAF sites GSO/INT did receive some storm activity and given that, decided to introduce a period of MVFR visibilities in possible fog early Mon. Confidence in this remains low but this seems plausible given some low-level saturation. Otherwise, VFR should prevail. A stronger low-level wind around 20 kt, strongest in the east, should favor some gusts Mon aftn upwards of 18 kt from the SSW. Another chance of isolated storms will exist once again, but coverage appears limited, with the best chance at GSO/INT. Outlook: More widespread coverage of storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough slowly moves through the area. Storms then become more widely scattered in nature Thursday and Friday. In the absence of storms, VFR weather should prevail.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Swiggett/BLS AVIATION...Kren/Leins