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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 241658
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into
central North Carolina tonight. The front will drift slowly
southeast toward the coast Sunday, and offshore Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Saturday...

Little change required to the near term forecast.

Latest meso analysis depicts the best low level moisture advection
aimed across our southern counties. Deep wly flow over the north
half will initially deter convective development but this will
change by mid afternoon as the flow eventually taps moisture
residing over the foothills.

Still expect the bulk of the convection to initially fire over the
southern Piedmont into the Sandhills between 17Z-20Z, with
additional development across the remainder of the Piedmont,
including the Triad and Triangle regions, between 20Z-23Z. With 0-
6km shear values on the order of 35-40kts, and MLCAPE values 1500-
2000 J/kg across the Sandhills, a few severe thunderstorms appear
likely with the main threat damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The scattered convection will likely persist well into the overnight
hours, particularly south and east of Raleigh.

Strong heating prior to convective initiation will boost
temperatures well into the 80s to around 90 degrees. With sfc
dewpoints near 70/lower 70s, heat indices will likely be in the mid-
upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

Dry weather is generally expected for a large portion of the area
for Sunday, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated
showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast
area, near the stalled frontal zone to the south and east of the
forecast area. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to
the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far
s/se. Dry weather will continue into Sunday night/Monday morning,
with low temps generally in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late
Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region.
Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s,
with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
dewpoints in the 50s. Lows Tuesday morning area expected to be in
the 60-65 degree range. A more pronounced mid/upper level
disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday
evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms
will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected
dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a
slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday
night are expected to generally be in the mid to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure will move across the area midweek and set up
shop offshore by late week. This will yield a warming trend back to
seasonal norms by the end of the week, with chances for mainly
diurnal convection slowly increasing by the end of the period
(though most if not all of the area will remain dry from Tuesday
late evening onward).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across
central NC this afternoon ahead of a cold front. These showers and
storms will cause MVFR/briefly IFR parameters and will affect all
TAF sites primarily between 20Z-01Z. The threat for convection will
decrease in vicinity of the Triad by 01Z, and near KRDU by 02Z. the
possibility of showers and an isolated thunderstorm will persist in
the vicinity of KRWI and KFAY through 07Z.

The cold front will drift sewd across central NC overnight through
Sunday morning. The passage of the front will be noted by the sfc
winds veering from the southwest to a north northwest direction.
Drier air behind the front will lead to improving aviation
conditions.

VFR parameters are expected across central NC Sunday afternoon
through Thursday. The exception will be Tuesday when an upper
disturbance passes overhead, triggering a few showers and possibly
MVFR ceilings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS