Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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676 FXUS62 KRAH 060820 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 320 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY... A COLD DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE PAST DAY. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE... THIS MORNINGS READINGS WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES FOR MID-WINTER (MID TO UPPER 20S). SUNSHINE WILL BE BRIGHT AND DOMINATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 IN MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY SUNDAY OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM AT THE CURRENT TIME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE REGION THAT IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WE WILL START THAT TREND AS WELL WHICH WILL INDICATE EVEN MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NIL POP TO LIKELY POP FROM NW TO SE AND ALSO LOWER THE POP SOMEWHAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FROM FAY TO GSB AND SE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR A NARROW WINDOW ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SE ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT SUGGEST A 50/50 CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. THE WEB BULB FORECASTS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32 IN THE SE... BUT FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ELSEWHERE (28-32). WE WILL TREND AGAIN TOWARD SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR SE LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE 0.2 OR LESS IN OUR FAR SE... WITH TRACE POSSIBLE TO KSOP TO KRDU TO KRWI ON THE NW EDGE OF THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE LIKELY... TO CHANCE... TO SLIGHT CHANCE... TO NIL POP... WILL EXIST FROM KFAY TO KRDU... WITH NIL POP WEST AND NORTH OF RDU FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE AROUND FAY TO GSB.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW...ON THE HEELS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RESULTING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK...OR UNTIL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED THU/FRI. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOC/W POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MONDAY AFT/EVE. GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...NO PTYPE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...I.E. UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR/OVER THE REGION AND WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOW/MID LEVELS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /UPPER LOW/ OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF DPVA...AND EVEN IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN THE LOWEST 500-1000 FT AGL WOULD SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATE-DRIVEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE PRESENT. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TODAY. THE AFFECTS OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE MAINLY EASTERN TAF SITES (FAY AND RWI) WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATE MON...AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE TUE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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