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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 302040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF ANYWHERE FROM 20-30MPH
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE TREND IN GUSTS WILL BE
DOWNWARD...MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST SUNSET...WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  THE 1034MB HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD
AND AS WINDS WEAKEN ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS.  IF SO...12Z THICKNESSES
SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUPPORT LOWS REACHING THE LOWER
20S...WITH MID AND UPPER 20S TO EAST WHERE WIND WILL STAY UP LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS (CROSSWINDS FOR MANY RUNWAYS) OF
ANYWHERE FROM 25KT TO 35KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.  THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED FROM KRDU NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS