Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290054 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY... AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER... THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IF THE HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS GO CALM... GIVEN THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS NEEDING TO OCCUR... THINK THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRWI IS WAY TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE... EXCEPT AT KFAY/KRWI... WHERE GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...77/30

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