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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 021950
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT: EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO MOVE AWAY
FROM NC OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING ACROSS THE EAST IN THEIR
WAKE. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAINING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO BE A
BIT HIGHER NW...WHILE LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER SE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TUESDAY...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE WARM TUESDAY WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WOULD INDICATE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS OF 2-6 DEGREES...GREATEST WHERE CLOUDS
INHIBITED HIGHS TODAY...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE GULF AND
WITH DESCENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...EXPECT AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH MIGRATES NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE ALREADY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN MONDAY MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

COMING SHORTLY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

COMING SHORTLY.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS LINGERING
AT KFAY AND KINT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY SWRLY ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT...AS THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR VISBYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
MAINLY AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. SHOULD THE CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
EAST THEY COULD INHIBIT SUB-VFR VISBYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE TRIAD AND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KINT AND KGSO THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT SUB-
VFR VISBYS TO DEVELOP. ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
MORNING. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT INT/GSO STARTING TUE
NIGHT...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT RDU/RWI/FAY STARTING WED
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AND THE WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THESE SUB-VFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND AT INT/GSO THROUGH THU
AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEN VFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITHIN A WARM MOIST SW
FLOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SUCH IMPROVEMENT IS NOT HIGH. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. -GIH/KC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC/HARTFIELD