Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261129 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 628 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move in from the west today, then move offshore later tonight and Monday. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday, then move north of the region Tuesday. && NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 403 AM SUNDAY... Sunny and chilly weather will prevail today given the continental polar high pressure that will build overhead later today and this evening. Winds will be around 10 mph today from the NW before becoming light and variable. Sunny skies and very dry air (dew points in the teens through the day) will lead to highs warming into the mid to upper 50s most areas, with lower 60s around Fayetteville. Clear skies early tonight with the surface ridge still overhead will lead to excellent radiational cooling. However, lows tonight may occur well before the diurnal norm around daybreak - depending on the timing of increasing cloudiness overnight. The latest satellite and data trends indicate the slower model guidance such as the NAM and EC may be favored over the GFS. Regardless, the NE zones should be coldest as they will be last to see clouds, with the SW first. Lows in the 30s (30 NE and upper 30s south) expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 403 AM SUNDAY... We trimmed back POP for Monday night to very low chances due to the drying up trend in the models. The warm frontal energy and moisture is expected to be directed more northward up the west side of the Appalachians, with some lingering ridging over central and eastern NC into Monday night. The skies will become mostly cloudy, but mostly "dead" clouds (not precipitation producing). Highs generally in the 60s with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Sunday... A warming trend will continue early next week, peaking on Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. However, deep southwesterly flow early to mid next week will allow for plenty of moisture/clouds along with periods of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through Wednesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the strong cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Deep layer shear will be impressive with this system, on the order of 50-60 kts, but diurnal timing will be poor with any convective line moving across the area overnight. Nonetheless, we should at least see some storms, with at least a small severe threat (depending on the amount of instability). High temps Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to generally be in the 70s, with possibly some lower 80s on Wednesday across southern and eastern portions of the area. Low temps will follow a similar trend, well above normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday morning. Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a reinforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in the 60s. High Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to near 60 south. Low are expected to be in the 30s late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 625 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR will continue for the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence, as surface high pressure moves across the region. This will result in northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range to start the day (with possibly a few wind gusts into the teens during the morning hours), becoming light and variable by mid to late afternoon into the evening with mostly sunny/mostly clear skies expected (only some high thin clouds possible). Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu will bring a better chance for showers then. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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