Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KRAH 221322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through
mid-week. A dry surface ridge will extend southwest into the region
through late-week as high pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 920 AM Monday...
In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast
this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area
as the flat subtropical ridge extends across the GOM and Deep South.
Meanwhile, a strengthening dry air surface ridge building eastward
into the Mid-Atlantic Region will deliver noticeably drier/less humid
air into the Carolinas, with dewpoints falling into the 50s this
afternoon and evening.
Capped from convection, sunny skies will support seasonable/near
normal highs in the mid 80s north to near 90 south. With the dry air
in place, clear skies and light winds overnight, will allow strong radiational
to cool temperatures into the mid/upper 50s north, to lower 60s
elsewhere, some of the coolest readings that many places have seen
for nearly 2 months.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Monday...
Shortwave ridging aloft (located upstream over the MS river valley
at 06Z this morning) will progress east to the Appalachians Tue/Tue
night as an upper level ridge builds/strengthens along the Deep
South Gulf coast...anchoring surface high pressure along the Mid-
Atlantic coast and maintaining the dry surface ridge extending into
the Carolinas from the NE. Expect continued clear skies with high
temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees
warmer than tonight. -Vincent
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 318 AM Monday...
High pressure and relatively dry airmass will continue to provide
fair weather for the mid-to-latter portion of the work week. Low
level thicknesses are progged to gradually increase during this
time, esp with the upper ridge building eastward and overtop the
Carolinas by Friday, so seasonable temps on Wednesday will rise
several degrees above normal, with highs returning to the lower 90s
by Friday. Also noted that by Friday, a weak front is progged to
drift south toward our area, but is expected to stall and dissipate
as it approaches the VA border with little impact on our weather
other than increased cloudiness.
The weekend, right now at least, appears to feature fair weather
with below-climo pops and near to slightly above normal temps given
the pattern which features an upper ridge parked over the Carolinas.
While not a concern for us now, we`ll be keeping an eye on the
tropics given the disturbances that are out in central tropical
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...
24-hr TAF period: VFR conditions and a light northwest breeze will
prevail through the TAF period as a drier airmass advects into the
region from the NW in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage.
Looking Ahead: VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through
mid to late week as dry high pressure builds eastward from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, then gradually shifts offshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast. -Vincent