Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250005 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 804 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build into central NC through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear skies and light wind regime. In the relatively dry air mass, temps will cool appreciably this evening...cooling into the 60s by 10 pm. Overnight temps in the 55-60 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable, primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the favored region. May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass should support a few thunderstorms. The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont in vicinity of a lee side trough. Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 325 PM Tuesday... The main forecast concern during this period will be low pressure off the FL east coast on Friday, that is progged by both the GFS and ECMWF to lift north toward the Carolina coast over the weekend. The 12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00z run, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows the low center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Both solutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy and damp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue the upward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night through at least Monday. In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, it could possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezy from Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now, given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limited to the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you have outdoor plans this holiday weekend, you`ll definitely want to pay close attention to the forecast! In the meantime for Friday and at least the first half of Saturday, our weather will be influenced by the sfc ridge extending south across the Carolinas from the parent high to our north and east offshore. On Friday, a few daytime showers over the higher terrain may drift east toward our western coastal plain coutnies during the afternoon, but drier air in the subsident region north of the aforementioned low will be pushing westward and should keep most of central NC dry Friday into early Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid 60s. Temps late in the weekend into early next week will be mostly influenced by what happens with the low and subsequent rain. For now, will stay close to climo during that time. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
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As of 800 PM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure moves overhead. Winds are expected to be out of the southwest at around 5 kts with mostly clear skies. No significant restrictions to aviation are expected. Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the extended until Thursday night into Friday when rain becomes more of a threat in the NW Piedmont.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...Ellis

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