Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 160739 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 240 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY... TODAY: WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID- ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION(CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS)EMBEDDED IN THE LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 21Z...BRINGING A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK MODEST...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE 850-700 MB LAYER. AS SUCH...HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP POPS AT HIGH CHANCE WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED OF A TENTH OF AN OR LESS. AS THE CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...MID- LEVEL DRYING WILL RACE EASTWARD...AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL RESULT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (200-350J/KG OF MUCAPE)...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN-LINE WITH COOLER MET STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. TONIGHT: CLEARING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A LIGHT NWLY BREEZE WILL KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP OVERNIGHT WITH RESULTANT WEAK CAA SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT 850MB NOTED...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINVIGORATE THE PACIFIC JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN OPAQUE CIRRUS SHIELD COULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DEFINITELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEMPER MIN TEMPS...AND COULD QUITE POSSIBLY RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN MIDS 30S TO UPPER 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY... WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EASTERN TERMINALS (KFAY AND KRWI)MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z IN THE WEST...EXITING EASTERN TERMINALS AOA 21Z. FCST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR UNTIL THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING(AOA 21Z IN THE WEST TO 03Z IN THE EAST). OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEST-EAST CLEARING WITH EASTERN TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM... AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.