Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221908 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THU/THU NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THU...WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE MORE THAN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z FRI. ANTICIPATE HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NW BREEZE SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER SUNRISE THU. LOOKING AHEAD: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

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