Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260618 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 218 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall over SC through Wed, then retreat north through NC as a warm front Wed night and Thu. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM Wednesday... Through this morning (from previous discussion): Skies will be mainly clear, though with a persistence chance of stratus in the vicinity of the surface front - from the srn Coastal Plain to the srn/wrn Piedmont. Previously forecast lows mostly within a few degrees either side of 70 need no adjustment. -MWS Today will likely be the most comfortable day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat index values for much of the region. The cold front will remain stalled south of Central NC through today while the positively-tilted upper level trough also continues to extend southwest into SC/GA/FL. Models suggest the front retreating north and northeast, mainly in the far west, as the surface high pulls farther away from New England during the day. As the front retreats, winds may veer to more southeasterly or southerly. Expect an increase in moisture, cloud cover and chances for convection, primarily along the Yadkin and the NC/SC border. For now expect only isolated chances for convection over portions of Central NC, with greatest chances for points to the far south and west during the aft/eve. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. -KC && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... High pressure aloft over south-central U.S. will try to ridge eastward into the region, however an upper low over GA/FL and the amplifying trough over the Northeast will largely inhibit it. The previous surface front will have fully retreated northward and eastward out of the region, with warm, moist southerly flow and a lee-trough taking it`s place over the region. The next frontal system out west will continue to approach and impinge on the area through Thursday night. As a result, much of the day Thursday should be dry, however there will be increasing clouds and chances for convection through the overnight period. Best chances for showers and storms overnight should be restricted to the north and northwest. Expect highs in the upper 80s NW to low 90s south and overnight lows again returning to the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Mid level ridging amplifying over the central CONUS will induce corresponding deepening of east coast troffing and associated northwest flow. Cooler air will be edging south out of the upper Midwest and slowly spreading east and southeast, with the associated cold front reaching the NC/VA border Thursday night. Thursday will be dry with potential for some showers in the western Piedmont late in the day. Highs will reach near 90 over the area with PoPs ramping up to 30-40% by Friday morning as the front creeps in, with at least 50% chances on tap for Friday into Friday night. Strongest convection is expected late Friday and through the overnight as convergence along the h85 trof will provide the best lift, with better shear profiles across the northern tier nearer the parent surface low and triple point. Highs Friday will be a shade cooler...mid 80s northwest to lower 90s east...mainly abetted by heavier cloud coverage and rain, as the cooler air doesn`t make its way into the area until Friday night. Some showers may linger into Saturday morning in the east, otherwise skies will be clearing with a noticeably cooler and drier airmass in place through the weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will top out mostly in the mid 80s...3-5 degrees below normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. The front, meanwhile, will be stalled along the coast, with potential for development of a surface low along the front that could pull moisture back into at least the eastern sections of the state by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Some low stratus has developed across the southeastern terminal (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) as of 06Z. Expect this to continue through the overnight hours with intermittent scattering possible. The northwest terminal may also drop below VFR toward the early morning hours. All restrictions should improve back to VFR after sunrise today, latest in the south. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate the remainder of the period, with light east- northeasterly winds and scattered clouds around 5kft and 25kft. -KC Looking ahead: The cold front to the south will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before a stronger cold front moves through the area on Friday and then stalls to our south over the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and a chance of morning fog and stratus. The greatest chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and storms will be Thursday night through Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. -Blaes && .EQUIPMENT... Technicians have completed the bulk of the first phase of the Service Life Extension Project (SLEP) upgrade and the data quality is sufficient for the radar to return to service. Additional radar adjustments resulting in brief outages are still possible during the next few days. The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...KC/MWS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...KC/BLAES EQUIPMENT...BSD/BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.