Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190542 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over southern Quebec will extend south into the southern Appalachians through Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to move northward well offshore of the DELMARVA peninsula today, and off the southern New England coast on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 900 PM Monday... A few very light showers moving just east of the forecast area this evening as Hurricane Jose moves northward offshore of the Outer Banks. Aside from a few sprinkles moving through eastern counties such as Halifax and Edgecombe, the area should remain dry overnight. Similar situation to the last couple of nights in regards to the areas that will experience the most fog/low stratus with highest concentrations in the northeastern part of the area. Tonight`s assortment will feature MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings showing up in the usually times after 8z or so and running through and a little beyond sunrise. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Monday... Only diurnal cumulus is expected Tuesday with highs only slightly hampered by northwest flow, reaching the mid 80s over most of the area. Mins Tuesday night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid 60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some mid to high level cloudiness. Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose. Plenty of sun is in the offing, which will allow modification of the airmass to reach the mid and upper 80s, and very low 90s are possible along the far southern counties. Mins on Wednesday night will be persistence...mostly mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 322 PM Monday... A mid-level weakness, with origins from the short wave that is currently moving across the central Plains, will be stalled across the Carolinas on Thursday. This feature may provide enough synoptic scale forcing to support a few widely scattered showers Thursday and Thursday night, with little in the way of QPF or impacts. Meanwhile, Jose is forecast to be positioned southeast of Cape Cod and beginning a southward drift as of the latest NHC advisory. As Jose slowly drifts south or southeast, so to will the aforementioned mid- level weakness, which then allows for a ridge to build over the Midwest on Friday and over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. N/NE flow assoc with this ridge to our north should set the stage for a drying trend and slight cooling trend for our area, setting us up for a very nice weekend weather-wise with mainly clear skies, highs in the lower-mid 80s, and lows in the 60s. Then the forecast gets more interesting for early next week thanks to Hurricane Maria to our southeast. The eventual track of Maria will largely depend on what happens with Jose. If Jose quickly fills southeast of Cape Cod or moves farther east and out of the way of the aforementioned ridge, that could set the stage for a steering flow that would push Maria farther west and closer to the Carolinas. However, if Jose holds together and ends up drifting farther south or even west or southwest back toward the coast, the flow around Jose would likely help to steer Maria away from the East Coast. Given all the uncertainties, obviously its too soon to try and pin down any forecast details for early next week, other than to say we need to keep a close eye on how this all develops. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... A deck of low stratus is expected to materialize and drift southward across most of the Piedmont and the northern coastal plain early this morning with widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings expected and MVFR visibilities due to fog. Some uncertainty whether the adverse aviation parameters will make it as far south as KFAY. Conditions are expected to improve after 13Z, with VFR parameters expected areawide by 15Z. Sfc winds, at less than 10 kts, will gradually back to a nwly direction this morning as Jose` moves northward well offshore of the Outer Banks and the DELMARVA peninsula. VFR parameters generally expected across central NC Wednesday through Saturday, though a few showers may occur Thursday into Friday as a weak upper disturbance and associated sfc front crosses the region. A brief instance of MVFR ceilings/visibility will occur in vicinity of the isolated showers. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...mlm LONG AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.