Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281909 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY... ...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND LESS HUMID THROUGH TONIGHT... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT HAS MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE CRASHED...AIDED IN PART BY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEEP MIXING. DEW POINTS AT 18Z RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE TRIAD...THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. SKIES WERE SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND A WISP OR TWO OF CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RANGED IN THE LOWER 80S...UNDER PERFORMING IN THE SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING BETWEEN 57 NEAR THE VA BORDER AT ROXBORO TO 66 IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR CLINTON. WEST WINDS WHICH WERE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH THE LNG WAVE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. RECENT NWP TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT AND THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO MAINTAIN A DRY AND FAIR WEATHER FORECAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ON MONDAY INCREASE ONLY A FEW METERS COMPARED TO TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 84 TO 89 RANGE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY RELAXES AND FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING FROM 584DM ON TUESDAY TO 590DM ON SUNDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES OR PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4KFT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED CHANCE THAT SOME IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE KFAY TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE TAF FOR NOW. WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO START THE DAY MONDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. -BLAES && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...BLAES

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