Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 130146 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 845 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend westward across the Southeast U.S. through Friday. A cold front will enter the state from the north late Friday, and push through central NC Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 845 PM Thursday... Mild light low level flow from the S/SW will persist tonight ahead of a cold front stretching from New England through the Ohio Valley to AR/N TX. 00z soundings in the area and upstream are fairly dry, except for shallow near-ground moisture resulting from nocturnal cooling with high dewpoints, and well as some high thin clouds across the north, riding atop the mid level ridge over the Southeast/FL. Expect dry weather and largely partly cloudy skies overnight. Current very mild temps are on pace to reach lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, close to the normal highs for this time of year. -GIH Previous discussion from 255 PM Thursday: Breezy sw sfc winds and partly sunny skies have pumped afternoon temperatures into the spring-like upper 60s and lower 70s. Wind gusts have been sporadically strong with a gust of 37 mph recorded at the Halifax County airport earlier this afternoon. Under partly cloudy skies and a steady sly sfc wind tonight, expect mild conditions for January. Overnight temperatures will only dip into the upper 40s-lower 50s, comparable to normal daytime highs for this time of year. Could still see pockets or areas of fog late tonight, mainly across the north half, though a steady sly sfc winds should keep the atmosphere just mixed enough to prevent the fog from getting thick/dense.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM Thursday... A strong cold front, being driven by a series of perturbations in the northern stream, will lie west-to-east across southern Virginia early Friday morning. This boundary will drift southward as an arctic high moves from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The front should cross into our far northern-ne counties early Friday afternoon, likely reaching the Triangle area by mid-late afternoon. This suggest that high temperatures for the day across our far northern-northeast sections may occur prior to 2 PM, with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Elsewhere, warm sly flow will persist, aiding to push temperatures back into the upper 60s-lower 70s with the warmest temperatures across the south-southeast. Not much in the manner of convergence along this boundary so expect little if any precipitation along or ahead of the front. The front will continue to settle southward Friday night, exiting our southern counties late Friday evening. While the near sfc flow will veer to a north-ne direction behind the front, winds aloft will remain swly or wly. This overrunning set-up will cause a deck of low clouds to develop and eventually lead to patchy light rain, mainly over the Piedmont, Friday night. Isentropic upglide not overly impressive, suggesting that the precipitation will be spotty and light in nature. For now will indicate solid chance PoPs in vicinity of our far western-northwest periphery Friday night. Northeast low level flow will advect a much colder air mass into central NC Friday night, driving overnight temperatures into the upper 30s and lower 40s. When the wind is factored in, wind chill values by early Saturday will be near or below freezing across the northern half of central NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... The upper level high over FL, will weaken Saturday and upper level flow over NC will become more west-northwesterly. At the surface, a CAD wedge will set up in the wake of a backdoor cold front on Saturday. The models have backed off on chances for rain to fall into the wedge airmass and subsequently erode it quicker than previous runs. With the wedge in place, expect temperatures much lower than previous days, highs around 40 degrees north to near 50 degrees south on Saturday and lows in the low 40s overnight. Weak disturbances in the west-northwest flow aloft may result in some light rain/drizzle across the north, mainly along the NC/VA border Sunday and Sunday night, elsewhere should remain dry. Do not expect any p-type issues or significant rainfall accumulations at this time. Some additional weak ridging of the high southward into western NC is possible again Sunday night (if the wedge completely erodes before that) before the parent high lifts away to the northeast on Monday. As a result, lows Sunday night will be similar to the previous night, low to mid 40s, despite some moderation in highs Sunday. From Monday night onward, expect moderating temperatures with lows in the mid 50s and highs in the low to mid 60s by Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect the weather on Monday and Tuesday to remain dry. The upper level ridge will build back over the southeast U.S. Monday and the flow aloft will become increasingly more meridional through mid-week. The resultant increase in south-southwest flow between the aforementioned ridge and the low moving across the Midwest will increase moisture advection ahead of the front and thus increase rain chances from west to east Wednesday and Thursday. The best rain chances are expected to be on Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 800 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area this evening with a much drier airmass across the area. Short term models are indicating a drop in visibilities, with the most likely spot to go down to MVFR/IFR levels being the Triad sites. Other terminals across central NC should have only scattered clouds and maybe MVFR ceilings but most likely no lower. If sites go down to MVFR/IFR levels, and confidence in this is low. Long term: A frontal zone over the area during the weekend could lead to adverse aviation conditions. Through the weekend. A moist air mass will also lead to the possibility of fog and low stratus for the next several nights. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Ellis

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