-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
726
FXUS62 KRAH 282000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should remain off the southeast United States through
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

High pressure is currently centered near Myrtle Beach, South
Carolina. Although the radar remains clear, widespread diurnal
cumulus developed during the late morning and seems to have reached
a steady state early this afternoon. Cloud cover decreases rapidly
north of I-40/85 from the Triad to the Triangle and along US-64 east
of Raleigh. The cloud cover should persist through much of the
afternoon before dissipating. Despite the cloud cover, southwesterly
flow should allow most locations to top out around 80 degrees.
Southwest wind around 5 mph will continue overnight along with
minimal cloud cover.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

A closed mid-level low over the Northern Plains lifting north into
Ontario combined with a low-amplitude speed max racing through the
Southern Plains sliding into the TN Valley will slightly suppress
mid level heights (15 to 25m H5 height falls) and shift the low-
level anticyclone centered over central NC towards the coast through
Mon night. Drier air through the deepening mixed layer Mon
morning/afternoon will result in less cumulus development and mostly
sunny conditions through the daytime hours after some patchy fog
disperses early Mon morning (mainly over the southern Piedmont,
Sandhills into the southern Coastal Plain of NC). Mostly clear skies
and low-level thicknesses increasing by around 5m will support
another 3-4 degrees of warming compared to Sun.

Steady height falls Mon night into early Tues morning within the
southwesterly flow aloft and convective debris from upstream will
increase wisps of cloud cover, but it should remain thin enough to
not impact overnight temperatures. Outside of isolated locations of
patchy fog and/or low clouds south of US-64 early Tues morning,
continued stirring overnight with the surface high displaced farther
east into the Atlantic will likely prevent areas of fog for most
locations. Lows will fall into the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM Sunday...

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the mid/upper ridge that had been
in place over the area gets replaced by a shortwave trough moving
across the TN Valley on Tuesday. This system still looks to reach
central NC by Tuesday evening/night. As it interacts with a lee
surface trough and warm/moist air mass (highs in the lower-to-mid-
80s and dew points in the mid-50s to lower-60s), isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms will be possible with the best chance
in the western Piedmont. However, coverage doesn`t look great given
a lack of any synoptic fronts and the timing of the shortwave
passage being past peak diurnal heating. A few showers could linger
into the overnight hours with lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

Some isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection may continue on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, this time more focused across
southern and eastern areas as the mid-level shortwave moves to the
coast and interacts with the surface trough. Temperatures should be
similar to Tuesday, still 5-10 degrees above normal. Thursday will
then feature very little if any precipitation chances as a mid/upper
ridge builds in from the Gulf of Mexico and we briefly get surface
high pressure building from New England down the mid-Atlantic coast.
However, this high should have minimal impact on temperatures with
Thursday`s highs still expected to reach the lower-to-mid-80s.

The next mid/upper trough and associated surface low will move into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday,
dragging a cold front that again doesn`t look to make it to central
NC. However, another weak shortwave may interact with a renewed lee
trough and moist/unstable airmass in place to result in increased
convective chances on Saturday and Sunday, when POPs go back up to
chance areawide. Temperatures will exhibit little change and remain
warm from Friday into the weekend, with highs in the lower-to-mid-
80s and lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM Sunday...

TAF period: There is widespread coverage of diurnal cumulus today,
and cannot rule out the potential for an isolated MVFR ceiling
considering cloud bases are generally between 3000 and 5000 ft.
Clouds should scatter out around sunset. Although FAY went LIFR this
morning with abundant low-level moisture, do not see enough
consistency from model soundings to include any restrictions in the
upcoming forecast. Similarly, while RWI does show some minimal low
level moisture, also do not have confidence to include any
restrictions there. Winds should remain consistently out of the
southwest through the period, with daytime wind around 8-10 kt plus
an occasional gust and overnight wind around 5 kt.

Outlook: There is a chance of restrictions with showers at INT/GSO
on Tuesday and RDU/FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Otherwise the extended
period appears to be VFR with dry conditions.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green