Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 140615 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will move away from the Outer Banks this morning as strong surface high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will shift south Sunday allowing a cold front to approach Sunday night. The front will cross the region Monday, bringing in much cooler and drier air.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Saturday... The main issue this morning is the timing of the lifting of the low stratus. Weak low pressure was analyzed near Hatteras at 200 am, with a developing surface high over western VA (moderately strong at 1026 mb). This was a southwest extension of the CAD high that is now moving off the New England coast (1030+ mb). The lifting out of the low status is expected to be quickly after sunrise today as the very strong mid level drying begins to mix down to the surface. This occurs as the weak low pressure near Cape Hatteras moves away, and the surface high over western VA strengthens. We expect mostly sunny skies by late morning or early afternoon in nearly all areas. Highs should respond nicely as most guidance supports 75-80 northwest and northeast, ranging into the lower 80s over the Sandhills. A light north wind at 5-10 mph is expected. The high will be overhead tonight. There should be a period between 400 and 800 am of some low stratus/fog, otherwise mostly clear. Lows in the 50s north and west and lower 60s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Saturday... The surface high is expected to shift south of the area Sunday. A return SW flow will bring increasing warmth. Highs should be on the upper end of MOS guidance as the mid levels are slow to moisten ahead of the next front by Sunday night. Highs generally in the mid 80s with some lower 80s NW and upper 80s over the Sandhills. Skies will become mostly cloudy Sunday night. The chance of showers will increase late over the far NW by evening, then the chance of showers will increase elsewhere overnight. However, only 30-50 POP will be forecast, with QPF of less than 0.25. Lows will be warm (pre-frontal conditions), so we will go above the warmest MOS. Lows well into the 60s expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Friday... A strong low pressure system will be lifting northeast across the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front stretching south across the Ohio Valley. This front will be moving swiftly across central NC on Monday. Showers ahead of the front will spread into the western Piedmont by midnight Sunday night, with increased PoPs spreading east to reach the Coastal Plain by late afternoon. Convection will concentrated on a 6 hour window associated with strongest low level convergence associated with the front which will be needed to overcome the lack of instability due to the early frontal passage`s unfavorable diurnal timing and strong capping aloft in the warm regime. Highs Monday will be clobbered by the ensuing cool air advection following the morning cloudiness, and highs will stall in the mid 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast. Showers will diminishing by midnight in the east, with perhaps a lingering shower in the southeast after midnight. Otherwise, cold air advection will settle our drier and much cooler airmass into place, and mins on Tuesday morning will be right chilly...in the mid and upper 40s. Dry, mostly clear skies will be then remain with us through the end of the week. Highs Tuesday will range from 65 to 70....with a very gradual warming trend of a couple of degrees per day through Friday when highs reach the mid 70s. Morning mins will be cool through the period under good radiational conditions, mostly in the mid and upper 40s each night.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 840 PM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Low level moisture will continue to linger overnight, with with MVFR/low end VFR cigs across the area falling back to IFR after midnight, with possibly a few sites dropping into the LIFR range (most likely KGSO/KINT). Expect generally dry conditions though. Cigs will slowly rise/scatter on Saturday, becoming VFR by afternoon Saturday, first at KFAY, then spreading northward. Outlook: Areas of shallow sub-VFR fog are possible 08z-13z Sun morning, but otherwise VFR conditions should hold. The next greatest chance for poor aviation conditions will be Sun night through much of Mon, along and behind a cold front crossing the region, with areas of rain. A drier air mass with a high probability of VFR conditions will arrive for Mon night through Wed. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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