Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210639 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low pressure area will develop along a weak surface front over upstate South Carolina today. The low pressure and a cold front will move offshore tonight. Colder and dry high pressure will build south into the region Tuesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Tuesday... Only residual light showers or sprinkles exist early this morning along the NC/VA border associated with the earlier convection to our NW. A few light showers may continue to bring some trace amounts of rain to the NE zones through 400 am or so. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies should become partly sunny mid to late morning. A cold front to our north is forecast to drop SE into our region this afternoon. It appears that a pre-frontal trough will develop from update SC eastward along the NC/SC border. This is where the heating today will combine with surface moisture convergence to support convective development. Models again have continued to suppress this potential southward (now mostly across southern NC and SC) late this afternoon and early evening. We will continue to carry the highest POP south of the Triad and Triangle areas, mainly across areas from Charlotte and Albemarle to Fayetteville and Rockingham. The highest POP according to the latest Hi-Res Convection allowing models should develop between 300 PM and 500 PM... spreading east and weakening or diminishing by early to mid evening 800-900 PM in the SE. Surface dew points in the upper 50s will combine with highs in the lower 80s across the southern tier of NC to produce MLCapes around 1000 J/KG. WNW flow in the mid layers at 30-35kt suggest organized thunderstorms in the corridor of the expected surface trough. One or two of these storms may become marginally severe. We will maintain the current wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but focus on the southern tier of counties. For the Triad to the Triangle area to Rocky Mount, expect a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. However, all the convective parameters are keying in on areas from Asheville to Charlotte to Fayetteville south into SC for any strong or isolated severe thunderstorms. Highs today warmest SW-S (lower 80s) and coolest N-NE (mid 70s). Evening showers/storms in the SE will clear out this evening, with mostly cloudy skies in the low level NE flow developing behind the front. A low probability of lingering light rain will be forecast near the front in the south and east overnight. Lows mid 40s northern Piedmont ranging into the mid 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Tuesday... Strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the north Wednesday. The drier and colder air will be slow to advance southward into all our region until late afternoon and Wednesday night. Skies will become mostly sunny in all but the SE zones where cloudiness may linger much of the day. Highs mid 50s north to mid 60s SE. Clear and colder conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows 28-32 or near freezing north and west, and 35-40 SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 PM Monday... The Nam is a wet outlier in the depiction of spreading precip into the area Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday, in response to shortwave disturbances moving through the area. The remainder of the NWP guidance keeps this overrunning precip suppress south of the area and thus will keep forecast dry. The modified Canadian parent high will shift offshore on Friday, with southerly return flow allowing for a quick moderation to 70 degree readings by Saturday with ridging aloft keeping it dry through Friday night and possibly through much of the day on Saturday. Strengthening warm moist air advection on the eastern periphery of the closed mid/upper level cyclone moving east-northeast into the Ohio Valley will result in increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Saturday and into the day on Sunday. The closed cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves east- northeast, and thus the threat for severe weather is minimal at this time. Continued mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Lows in the upper 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Generally VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. Weak low pressure is forecast to track east along a nearly stationary boundary that is expected to be over southern NC and northern SC this afternoon and evening. This will bring a chance of a period of MVFR CIGS and VSBYS with a shower or thunderstorm, mainly between 21z and 00Z today at KFAY. This chance may linger through 03Z or so at KFAY. A cold front will move south through the region after the low pressure shifts offshore tonight. Generally VFR conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Long Term: Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period with high confidence Thursday into Friday. The probability increases for MVFR CIGS by Saturday with a low chance of showers. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.