Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161857 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 257 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM Saturday... Northeasterly flow remains across the area this afternoon as surface high pressure sits over western New York. Some weak surface convergence across the northern I-95 corridor has lead to some enhanced cloud cover over this area and a few pop up low topped showers. This is consistent with RH cross sections which show much of the moisture below 750 mb. Forecast soundings also show very dry conditions aloft. Overnight expect some fog in the northeastern quadrant of the CWA followed by some MVFR/IFR stratus. This should begin around 9z and low clouds could linger across the east into the late morning or even early afternoon on Sunday. Highs today solidly in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM Saturday... Hurricane Jose will continue the trek northward on Sunday off of the Carolina coast to our southeast. No real impacts are expected to central NC other than the potential for some cloudiness in the east with a band of showers perhaps progressing through the eastern portions of the CWA. A few wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be possible Sunday afternoon and into the evening. For the western half of the area, it may be hard to even realize clouds as things remain confined to the east. All in all a nice end to the weekend with low to mid 80s for high temperatures and lows Sunday night in the middle 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... As hurricane Jose moves north and passes well offshore, the primary impacts will be increased cloudiness in the east on Monday, and the northerly flow will maintain a slightly below normal trend in our high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the low 80s across the north to mid 80s south both days. It`s difficult to confidently identify any forcing which might provide some convective focus from midweek onward. Initial weak troffing at the surface and aloft in the mid week will give way to high pressure in the midweek as the lingering surface trof is pushed south of the area, Highs Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid to upper 80s, with some very low 90s possible across the southern tier. Weak cool air advection in easterly behind the surface trof will stall the airmass modification and cool highs a couple of degrees on Friday, with the modestly cooler airmass settling in to produce mostly lower 80s Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... 24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area this afternoon as skies remain partly cloudy. A few showers around KRWI but not close enough to mention in the TAF at this time. Precipitation is expected to remain very limited this afternoon. Much of the threat for sub- VFR conditions will be in the northeastern portion of the forecast overnight as KRWI will be under the threat of both fog and low stratus. While skies clear initially overnight, we may first see some IFR/MVFR fog, starting around 8-9z followed by some IFR/MVFR ceilings later on Sunday morning. Have kept everything MVFR in the TAFs for now as the westward extent of this remains of low confidence. Looking Ahead: Hurricane Jose will make its closest approach to the NC coastline on Monday and there is a slight chance of some outer rain bands making it into the eastern portion of the forecast area. Some lower ceilings may accompany this shower activity. Largely VFR conditions should return for midweek outside the potential for the usual morning fog/low stratus. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...Ellis

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