Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 311325 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 925 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY... STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS REALLY HIT THE SKIDS AS IT APPROACHED THE TRIAD OVER THE LAST HOUR...ENCOUNTERING THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVE THE CASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILL ZONES SEEING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE INLAND PUSH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. MORNING BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ~15M FROM YESTERDAY.... SUGGESTS HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100F ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS. MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING 1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS WED-SAT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY... FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHILE LOCALIZED IFR AND LOW-MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...THICKER WEST AND THINNER EAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING. ALSO WATCHING THE SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST...BUT MOST CAMS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS KGSO SOUTH TO KAFP SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES. THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF KGSO/KINT. OTHERWISE..OUTSIDE OF THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...NP

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