Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160838 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 337 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure situated over the Florida Peninsula will continue to support a warm Southwesterly flow through much of today. A cold front will cross the region late today, with a much cooler air mass to follow on Saturday. Unsettled weather returns once again Sunday as a developing low progresses north and east through the Mid Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Friday... The sub-tropical ridge will become suppressed southward as the shortwave diving south into the Mid-Atlantic surges southward. In response, the surface cold front will propagate southeastward toward Central NC this morning, moving through the area this evening and tonight. As a result of the increasing pressure gradient, winds will be strong and gusty again today and into tonight, veering from southwest to northwest with the fropa. The southwest flow will continue to advect warm air into the region, and while temperatures will depend on the timing of the front and its associated rain showers, highs today are expected to range from mid 70s NW to around 80 degrees south and SE. This will come very close to the record highs, threatening them at the very least. The cold front is expected to slide through much of the area tonight, possibly stalling along the southern edge of NC while high pressure ridges southward over the rest of the area. Lows tonight are a bit more dependent on the fropa timing and southward progression, but for now expect mid 30s north to mid 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Friday... Surface high pressure will continue to ridge southwestward into Central NC, advecting cold air in from the northeast. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will advect warm moist air over the cold boundary layer. As a result, expect a cloudy day Saturday with light spotty rain in the morning. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, as a surface low develops to the south and slides northward along the Carolina coast and another upper level shortwave swings just to the west and north of the area the late in the afternoon and into Saturday night. As of the latest model runs, it appears the Triad and points northwest will remain wedged in, while a warm front associated with the developing surface low briefly lifts northward, impinging upon it. The location of these features will have an impact on both temperatures and precipitation, thus decreasing confidence in both. For now, expect high temps in the low 40s NW to low 50s south, while overnight lows will be similar to tonight, mid 30s north to mid 40s south. Chances for rain will increase into the afternoon and decrease overnight, with rain largely expected to taper off by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Friday... Surface high pressure will quickly move across the region on Sunday into Sunday night, allowing for a return to quite weather with mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday. High temps on Sunday are expected to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Moisture is expected to increase on Sunday night as the surface high moves offshore, helping to keep overnight low temps in the 40s. Chances for rain are expected to increase on Monday as low level WAA increases. However, as light rain/showers develop we will likely see an in-situ CAD develop across the area, which will keep temps cooler across the Piedmont than previously expected. In fact, temps may struggle to climb past the lower 50s in the NW Piedmont. However, southeastern locations across the CWA will likely warm into the 70s. The temp forecast and how much of a gradient we see across our area will depend greatly on the precip amounts, which are expected to be light. For now will go with highs ranging from the mid 50s NW to the lower to mid 70s SE. A slow moving warm front is likely to overtake the in-situ CAD Monday night into Tuesday, as the warm front lifts through the area allowing warm and moist air to flood the entire CWA. The sub- tropical ridge located off the Southeast U.S. coast next week is expected to nudge further into are area on Tuesday and help to hold the next approaching cold front off to the north and west through at least Thursday morning. This will set the stage for well above normal temps Tuesday through at least Thursday morning, with the potential for some records to fall next week (record highs and high mins). In fact the ECMWF statistical guidances is showing 3 days in a row of 80+ degree highs across southeastern portions of the area next week. For now will go with highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s NW to around/lower 80s across the SE for Tuesday and Wednesday, with low temps during that time frame in the 50s to near 60. Chances for rain will increase as the cold front approach the region mid to late week. However, with the latest ECMWF slowing and weakening the front further will keep pops only in the chance category, and keep temps well above normal for Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1255 AM Friday... 24-Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions should persist through tonight, although some models indicate a brief period of sub-vfr cigs moving in from the southwest around daybreak. There is still some question as to whether the clouds will move in, and if they will be scattered or broken. Have covered that with a tempo group for now and will reassess for the 12Z issuance. Southwest winds will continue to be strong (10-15 kts) and gusty (17-25 kts) through tonight. Expect both to increase during the day Friday ahead of the southward propagating cold front. In the wake of the front, winds will continue to be fairly strong and gusty, veering to a more northwesterly direction by 00Z at most terminals. Also with the frontal passage, a brief round of showers is expected, with accompanying low-end VFR to high-end MVFR conditions in most locations. Another round of showers is possible by the end of the TAF period, but will hold off on that for now. Looking ahead: A cold front will progress through much of the area by Saturday morning. Some lingering patchy periods of light rain are expected for Saturday. Also, expect a period of sub-vfr conditions to develop Saturday afternoon, persisting through the night. A period of VFR conditions is expected again on Sunday, however aviation conditions will alternate from VFR to sub-vfr through Monday night before another warm front lifts northward through the area on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 | 77 1976 | 62 1990 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 | 76 1927 | 58 1990 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/16 | 82 1989 | 62 1935 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...KC CLIMATE...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.