Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160529 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1230 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina tonight through Thursday morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest Thursday through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Cool high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1050 PM Wednesday... Overcast skies are moving through the region in association with a shortwave aloft. Some showers have made their way into the Triad over the past hour or so, but should continue to fall apart as they progress east. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Overcast skies will persist for the next few hours, with clearing from west to east in the wake of the trough early Thursday (06Z onward). With that all in mind, expect lowest temperatures along and west of I-95, highest temps across the Coastal Plain. Generally mid 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... A secondary cold front is expected to push through late Thursday. Until then, drier and sinking air will follow the departing mid/upper trough Thursday. Temperatures should warm well into the 60s (near 70 Sandhills) with WSW flow at 10-15 mph. Winds will die off overnight Thursday, with clear skies as the high pressure builds overnight. Lows generally in the mid to upper 30s expected, with lower 30s in the normally colder locations of the Piedmont. The high will be overhead Friday into Friday night supplying clear skies and light winds. Highs 55-62. Lows Friday night will depend on the timing of WAA, much of which will likely be felt aloft and not at the surface. This may be especially in the east, where the ridge will be slower to depart. Lows should be coolest in the NE - warmest SW (35-42). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM Wednesday... Shortwave ridging aloft across the mid-Atlantic early on Saturday pushes offshore as a progressive upper-level trough moves across the OH and TN Valleys Saturday afternoon an then pushes off the east coast Sunday night. The associated cold front will reach the southern Appalachians Saturday evening and then reach the coast around Sunday morning. Vigorous low-level flow with southwesterly 850 hPa winds of 40-50 kts are expected ahead of the front while stout southwesterly winds of 130+ kts are expected at jet level. Even with these dynamics, the best forcing for ascent lifts northeast away from the Carolinas which combined with limited moisture return and a progressive pattern will result in a brief and generally light precipitation event with precipitation amounts of a tenth or two. The weather pattern quiets and chills with generally fair weather expected for Sunday into early next week as deep troughing across develops across the eastern CONUS on Sunday and Monday. The is followed by a period of short-wave ridging late Monday into early Tuesday. The southern jet stream becomes more active across the Deep South and Gulf Coast into Wednesday as troughing develops in the vicinity of the lower Mississippi Valley. Not much confidence in forecast details late Tuesday into Wednesday as this pattern can be difficult to forecast, especially at day 7 but fair and dry weather still expected. With a strong southerly flow and a delayed arrival of clouds and precipitation, raised max temperatures on Saturday to the mid 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 50s and cool even further on Monday with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s despite lots of sunshine. A moderation to just below normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to around 60. -Blaes && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Despite the passage of an upper level trough and accompanying light showers through the area early this morning, cloud bases will be high (around 8,000-10,000 ft AGL) with VFR vsbys. Once this system passes to our east this morning, VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and unrestricted vsbys are likely today through tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. Winds will be mainly from the NW today under 10 kts, becoming light northerly tonight. Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions are likely through Sat. MVFR conditions are expected Sat evening/Sat night as a cold front moves through with scattered showers. VFR conditions will return Sun through Mon as high pressure builds in. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...Hartfield

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