Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 311924 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY... SURFACE FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS FILTERED LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...AND NOW ENCROACHING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. NOW APPEARS THAT IF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURS...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CUMBERLAND AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10-11 PM. OVERNIGHT EXPECT CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST REGION THOUGH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION SHOULD BE NO WORSE 2-3 MILES. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM MID 60S NW-NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA...EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WHILE A BROAD L/W TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER MID WEST EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. THE L/W TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME MINOR AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEST-NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SET-UP USUALLY RESULTS IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE STALLED SFC FRONT IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY WAVERING A FEW TENS OF MILES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. THUS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFAY-KGSB LINE. OVER THE PIEDMONT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THICKNESS AVERAGE A FEW METERS ABOVE NORMAL (1428-1435). THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL USHER/MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS...YIELDING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S-NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...AND 60-65 OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. SO...WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE HOT...THE DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS SHOULD HOPEFULLY MAKE THE HEAT A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 EAST-SE...AND 65-70 NW-LOWER 70S SE SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS /INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...A MORE ACTIVE /ENERGETIC/ PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...ONE WOULD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 90S) AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT/ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/TIMING WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPSTREAM CONVECTION (I.E. MCS ACTIVITY)...AND/OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS (I.E. OUTFLOW/ MCV`S)...IT IS DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE FORECAST SPECIFICS (CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY) MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (I.E. MODIFIED EML) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NW FLOW ALOFT...AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT SOME POINT IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY IF DIURNAL TIMING IS FAVORABLE W/REGARD TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF KFAY. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND MONDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...WSS

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