Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251737 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 136 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BRING DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1025 AM MONDAY... TODAY: VERY PLEASANT MORNING IN PROGRESS AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WHICH FOR THE MOST PART HAS KEPT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 3 KFT LEVEL. THERE ARE WIND GUSTS OUT THERE AS FAR WEST AS ASHEBORO EXTENDING THOUGH THE EASTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS HAVE BEEN SEEN THUS FAR AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT IN SOME 850 MB MOISTURE ONSHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN QUESTION. POINTS FROM HIGHWAY 1 WESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FULL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM HIGHWAY 1 TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EVERYWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT INCREASE IN THE EAST...LOCALES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD ALSO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. -ELLIS TONIGHT: WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCES INVERSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TO MORE OF A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO AGAIN BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS... WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A BIT WARMER TEMPS. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BY SOME 5 TO 10 METERS. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (83- 87). -BSD && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD AS CENTRAL NC WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION...LEADING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE ABOUT 10M ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND 15-20M ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE A RUN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY. LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SIMILARLY WEAK. AT THIS TIME PLAN TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS T.C. CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH-NE BETWEEN THE NC COAST AND BERMUDA. THE MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE (THOUGH MARGINAL) MOISTURE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-12M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY-SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS SFC BOUNDARY WILL AID TO POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THAT BY SUNDAY...CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAK-MODEST...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT. IF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON...THE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY/LABOR DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAGGLING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EXTREME EAST...THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE FOCUS AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KTS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 3-5 KFT RANGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY LOW. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. IF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DO OCCUR...THE WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO KRWI AND BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. FOR TUESDAY...MORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SCATTED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AT 3-5 KFT. WINDS MAY TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH 5-10 KTS SUSTAINED WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS. LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AND ITS EFFECTS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...ELLIS

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