Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261732 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 132 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1008 AM TUESDAY... OVERVIEW: SHEARING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT...PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SE US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WITH LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH OVER THE NC/VA FTHLS. TODAY: CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION WITHIN THE W-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEAK WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEFLECTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES OFF TO THE NORTH. INSTEAD...WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS...WEAK TO MARGINALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ~25KTS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. TONIGHT: CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IF ANY UPSTREAM SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...SUCH AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT CONTINUE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO ~6.5C/KM. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO STALL DIRECTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING /DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION/. THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE MODIFIED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BY WED EVENING (ASSUMING CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON)...AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL LIKELY AFFECT IT`S POSITION IN A MANNER THAT MODEL GUIDANCE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY CAPTURING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO LOWER80S IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WED EVE/NIGHT...ESP WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN W/WSW FLOW ALOFT. NO CLEAR INDICATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT GIVEN DECREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WED AFT/EVE UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID 60S SOUTH TO LOWER 60S NORTH...PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 232 AM TUESDAY... ...CONTINUED WARM AND UNSETTLED INTO LATE WEEK... THEN TURNING STORMY AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY... ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT WAVE. THE HIGHEST POP WILL OCCUR WITH HEATING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF PLACING THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ROBUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. QPF IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S NORTH INTO THE MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 60-65. THE FRONT MAY LINGER FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL, YET SMALLER POP ON FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF POP AND QPF ON FRIDAY AS THE LINGERING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANOTHER NW FLOW DISTURBANCE ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY. WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POP AND MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT MOSTLY 75-82. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS HUMID SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO NC/SC SATURDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN EXPECTED ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE SHOULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KINT AND KGSO WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY SWLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD: UPPER DISTURBANCES TRACKING ATOP A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. PRE-DAWN FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AFFECTED BY AFT/EVE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT/KRD AVIATION...CBL

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