Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200731 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SC LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 910 PM TUESDAY... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV PUSHING OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST HAS SHIFTED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAS REALLY HIT THE SKIDS AS WELL...LIKELY STYMIED BY INCREASING SBCINH(75-150 UNITS)PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...ALONG WITH NOTED DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THUS WILL RETAIN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NW (AROUND 60) WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...VERSUS OUR SE ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THUS HAVE LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE (PARTICULARLY HOW FAR NORTH) THAT WAVE WILL SET UP...BUT EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... WITH THE SURFACE LOW RACING AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY MORNING...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL RESUME AS A RELATIVELY STRONG 1030MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AS LOW AS 1350M...30M BELOW NORMAL...FRIDAY MORNING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT BEST AND LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF DECOUPLING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW AND MODERATION TO COMMENCE...WITH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND APPROACH 90 MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. PROVIDED THE RIDGE BUILDS AS STRONGLY AS ADVERTISED ...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...MOST NOTABLY WHERE OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLIER FELL AT RDU. AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR RWI AND FAY BETWEEN 07- 11Z. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM LIGHT SE TO LIGHT NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU... FOLLOWED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AFTERNOON. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...26

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