Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160602 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 201 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z. 9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY... AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS... AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI. OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).
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&& .CLIMATE... THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING... AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED: WED 04/16 THU 04/17 LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953 GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953 RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010- 021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...MWS

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