Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261726 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1227 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move in from the west today, then move offshore later tonight and Monday. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday, then move north of the region Tuesday. && NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 840 AM SUNDAY... Flow aloft has become quasi-zonal in the wake of upper trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic region. While at the surface, modified cP parent high centered over the TN Valley this morning will shift east over the area through the afternoon and then slip offshore late tonight and into the day on Monday. This means that the cooler-more seasonable temperatures will be very short-lived. Highs today ranging from mid 50s NW to around 60 SE. Batch of broken high clouds in advance of the sheared shortwave energy ejecting eastward across the Lower MS Valley will bring an increase in high clouds late tonight/during the predawn hours Monday morning, which could temper low temps just a bit. Overnight lows in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 403 AM SUNDAY... We trimmed back POP for Monday night to very low chances due to the drying up trend in the models. The warm frontal energy and moisture is expected to be directed more northward up the west side of the Appalachians, with some lingering ridging over central and eastern NC into Monday night. The skies will become mostly cloudy, but mostly "dead" clouds (not precipitation producing). Highs generally in the 60s with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Sunday... A warming trend will continue early next week, peaking on Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. However, deep southwesterly flow early to mid next week will allow for plenty of moisture/clouds along with periods of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through Wednesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the strong cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Deep layer shear will be impressive with this system, on the order of 50-60 kts, but diurnal timing will be poor with any convective line moving across the area overnight. Nonetheless, we should at least see some storms, with at least a small severe threat (depending on the amount of instability). High temps Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to generally be in the 70s, with possibly some lower 80s on Wednesday across southern and eastern portions of the area. Low temps will follow a similar trend, well above normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday morning. Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a reinforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in the 60s. High Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to near 60 south. Low are expected to be in the 30s late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1227 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: There is high confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period, as surface high pressure moves east across the region, becoming positioned off the NC coast Monday afternoon. Northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range will become light as variable late this afternoon and evening as the high shifts overhead, and will become south-southeasterly on Monday. Outlook: Warm moist air advection ahead of a upper level disturbance could produce the next chance for sub-VFR conditions Monday night with isolated to widely scattered showers possible. Scattered showers along with the threat of sub-VFR conditions could linger into Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu will bring a better chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Cool high pressure building into the area Thursday and Friday will bring a return to VFR conditions for late in the week and into the weekend.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...CBL

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