Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270651 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY... THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...IN VICINITY OF THE MASON- DIXON LINE AT 06Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE DELMARVA TOWARD NORTHEAST NC THIS EVENING...THOUGH LATEST SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY STALL BEFORE REACHING NC...IN VICINITY OF NORFOLK VA. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL VA YESTERDAY EVENING LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD SERVE AS A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO INITIATION TIMING/COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE DUE TO THE COMPLICATED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...NOT TO MENTION CLOUD COVER /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ AND THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF ANY SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PROGRESSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN IN CLOSEST VICINITY TO THE COOLER AIRMASS SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE DELMARVA. NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER THE REGION. AN ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFT/EVE GIVEN MDT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PROGGED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SUCH A COMPLICATED PATTERN IN PLACE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...OTHER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE IN SIMILAR PATTERNS WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLD/LOW-END SVR THREAT. EXPECT LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID 60S SOUTH TO LOWER 60S NORTH...PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... TO BE ADDED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TO BE ADDED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITION ATTENDANT SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS. LOOKING AHEAD: IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THU NIGHT. PRE-DAWN FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...ESP. IN AREAS AFFECTED BY AFT/EVE CONVECTION. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...VINCENT

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