Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
669 FXUS62 KRAH 300125 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 925 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Tropical cyclone Bonnie will track inland along the South Carolina coast today, then turn northeast and track along the North Carolina coast through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 925 PM EDT... Tropical cyclone Bonnie has been nearly stationary over the past several hours. A slight jog to the northeast is expected late tonight/towards daybreak. Convective coverage has certainly been on a wane since loss of daytime heating. And despite the tropical moisture in place (PWS of 1.75-2.0"...1 to 2 S.D. above normal), much of the Hi-res CAMS indicate this lull will continue through most of the night. Will trim back pops for the remainder of the night, with chance pops over the Piedmont while keeping likely pops in the east where continued DCVA to the northeast of the circulation center, lifting atop the inverted trough/coastal front extending along the I-95 corridor will provide the best focus for lift and showers overnight. Expect a wide range in temperatures overnight with lows in the lower/mid 60s NW where CADish airmass resides, to lower 70s over the easter/southeastern counties, east of the sfc trough && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 215 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night. Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low. This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west. Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain, especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80. Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in the 65-70 range. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 205 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range by Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Friday/... As of 800 PM Sunday... 24-hr TAF Period: Scattered MVFR/IFR conditions associated with showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most likely to affect the KRDU/KFAY/KRWI terminals during the next couple of hours. Although models continue to show current activity falling apart before it reaches the Triad, a few showers may reach KGSO and KINT this evening. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers will persist through the remainder of the TAF period in association with nearby tropical cyclone Bonnie. Bonnie (or Bonnie`s remnants) are expected to stall, then track slowly northeast through coastal NC on Monday and Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase once again on Monday as Bonnie (or the remains) get closer and daytime heating commences. Looking ahead: Sub-VFR condition associated with showers, isolated thunderstorms and low ceilings will persist through mid-week as Bonnie`s remnants track slowly northeast along the NC coast. Then a front is expected to approach from the west to end the work week out. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...KRD/Vincent is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.