Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241743 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... THROUGH 12Z MON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO AT 12Z) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND WAVE (POTENT/COMPACT UPPER LOW) PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EAST FROM SOUTHERN CA TO WESTERN TX. FORCING ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ACCORDINGLY...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /DRY CONDITIONS/ AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/ SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E... THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FARTHER INLAND. NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...VINCENT

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