Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191929 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon will pivot northeast over western North Carolina into Virginia tonight and Friday. This will be followed by a brief quiet period Friday afternoon and night. Then... a strong storm system is expected to affect the region over the weekend into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1132 AM Thursday... The cooler and drier air mass was in place over the region courtesy of the surface high pressure. The latest data indicated mostly sunny to sunny skies. Satellite and surface observations support sunny skies becoming partly sunny in the west later today. Highs are still expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with light and variable winds. Cloud cover will begin continue to increase from the southwest this evening as a southern stream system approaches. Rain chances will increase for the SW Piedmont after 06z, and spread northeast overnight. QPF of around 0.25 NW to less than 0.10 expected SE. Lows in the mid 40s to near 50. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Thursday... Rain will continue across central NC on Friday as a disorganized frontal system moves across the area. Rain will continue into the late afternoon or early evening ending from west to east as it does so. Total accumulations of rainfall are expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Temperatures will be dictated by cloud cover but warm air advection ahead of the system will bring max temps up into the mid 60s across the south, with upper 50s to low 60s across the north. Lows Friday night in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday... A wet, but mild spell is on tap for the weekend into early next week as a strong cutoff low pressure area digs into the midwest and across the Gulf states before lifting up the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Timing confidence is fairly high, while finer details of potentially how much rain where are still somwhate murky. There appear to be at least 3 distinct periods of potential showers as this slow-moving system taps into the Gulf and feeds abundant moisture north up the Atlantic coast. An initial short wave and associated surface warm front will be lifting northeast, steered by an upper ridge over the eastern seaboard on Saturday, with showers spreading north into the area by afternoon and lingering through Saturday night. Shower coverage may be a bit diminished on Sunday, but mid level instability and upper dynamics (particularly upper divergence in the exit region of a jet streak rounding the base of the upper low) should support isolated thunder in the afternoon through Sunday night. Finally, we should see wome lighter, wrap around showers linger through Monday into Monday night as the upper low lifts out to the northeast. All told, widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are expected over the 3 day period. Rain should be spread out enough over the period to preclude any flooding on larger streams and rivers, but some localized flooding in urban areas is possible given the potential for stronger convection on Sunday and Monday. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s, cooling to mid 50s to lower 60s Monday in modest northerly cool air advection on the backside of the low level circulation. Cold air will remain bottled up over the northern Conus, so temperatures will remain mild with as mid level ridging migrates across the area Tuesday through early Thursday. Abundant sun will help induce a bit of a warmup, with highs around 60 Tuesday warming to the mid 60s on Wednesday. A cold front will be approaching on Thursday, which looks to be mostly dry and we will still be shielded from arctic sir in the wake of the front, so highs should still reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1130 AM Thursday... VFR conditions will continue through 06Z/tonight. Ceilings will begin to lower from the SW later this evening and overnight. MVFR TO IFR conditions expected with areas of rain and fog between 09Z- 15Z/Friday. The rain is expected to end by late morning, with a return to MVFR then VFR conditions during Friday afternoon. Long term: VFR conditions will continue into Friday night. However, a warm front will approach late Friday night and Saturday. This will bring IFR to MVFR conditions Saturday with areas of rain and fog. Another system will bring adverse aviation conditions with rain, fog, low ceilings, and thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Monday morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Badgett

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