Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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507 FXUS62 KRAH 280137 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY... AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA AND THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST NC... A FUNCTION OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT TEMP DROP TO ITS NORTH BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB IN RECENT RUNS... RESTRICTING THE HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... EVEN CORRECTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... SO HAVE LARGELY RELIED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT... WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY... SOMETHING LIKELY TO BE LACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... A TREND TO BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/MCV FROM THE SW AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS / RECENT TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE... HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS TO 63-67. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY... UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE STALLED FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST TO START THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED/PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALSO LIKELY TO SET UP A THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY(TMB)ACROSS THE AREA. SO FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC. NEVERTHELESS DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF 1000- 2000J/KG MLCAPE. WESTERLY H5 FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT...WHICH WILL IMPROVE BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 TO 35KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH 28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...RAH/CBL

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