Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301926 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH 2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC. ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE.... SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...30

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