Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 281651 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1250 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY... ...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND LESS HUMID TODAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE RAH CWA WITH THE FRONT JUST MOVING OUT OF SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE CRASHED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TRIAD AND AT THE LEAST THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM CENTRAL NC ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SAMPSON COUNTY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE RAW CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME LINGERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK GREAT. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE MON NIGHT/TUE. AS A RESULT OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND GLANCING DPVA...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LATE MON/MON NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE LOCATION /INLAND PROGRESSION/ OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID/UPPER 80S...THOUGH LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON NIGHT...MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY... A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROJECTED THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RESULTANT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WHEN HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES OR EVEN REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY APPROACH. EXPECT A GRADUAL RISE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES TUE-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS GENERALLY 68-73. HIGHS 88-95. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4KFT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED CHANCE THAT SOME IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE KFAY TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE TAF FOR NOW. WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO START THE DAY MONDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. -BLAES
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...BLAES

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