Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 162306 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 705 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will gradually dissipate tonight into Monday. High pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late week, leading to hot weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 705 PM Sunday... Scattered thunderstorms that developed in vicinity of a stalled sfc boundary across the eastern half of our forecast region are beginning to decrease in coverage and intensity at 23Z. Outflow from these decaying storms will likely spark a few more showers and isolated t-storms across the Piedmont through 01Z. Expect most if not all of the convective activity to dissipate by 03Z. Later tonight, patchy or areas of fog may develop though visibilities should remain generally at or above a mile. Coverage of the fog will depend upon if enough mid/high level clouds dissipate in the wake of the storms. A stalled mid level shear axis may concentrate enough high clouds over the se half of central NC to inhibit the fog from developing. Will continue to monitor. Overnight temperatures near 70- lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 227 PM EDT Sunday... Little change in the pattern with the longwave trough axis remaining along the Appalachians. Yet both the GFS and NAM show the plume of highest pwat shifting to our east, and this is noted in forecast soundings that show pwat falling to 1.5" or less across our entire CWA Monday afternoon. Models suggest the best chance for rain will be to our west developing over the mountains and drifting east across the foothills, and to our east near the coast in the deeper moisture, with lesser coverage across central NC compared to today. Thus, will stay just below PoPs climo, going with 20-30% across our CWA, highest east near the better moisture and lowest west. Nearly all the guidance suggests high temps near climo, thus upper 80s for highs. Mainly dry Monday night with any isolated showers/tstms dissipating by early overnight. Lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Tue/Wed: A weak upper level trough along/east of the Appalachians will progress slowly toward the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast Tue/Wed. Expect near normal temperatures, with the best potential for diurnal convection along the coast and in the mountains/ foothills. Thu-Sun: An upper level ridge will build eastward from the Central Plains to the lower MS river valley and Deep South on Thu/Fri, then progress slowly toward the SE coast Sat/Sun. 12Z guidance suggests that central NC will be situated on the northeast periphery of the ridge, in NW flow aloft. Unseasonably strong deep layer shear, atypically steep mid-level lapse rates, and an increased potential for shortwave energy /DPVA/ typically accompany NW flow aloft. With the above in mind, an enhanced potential for organized severe weather may be present over portions of the region late this week into this weekend, particularly the Mid-Atlantic states. Expect above normal temps in the mid 90s (perhaps upper 90s S/SW in closer proximity to the ridge) and near or above-climo chances for convection, though confidence is lower than average. -Vincent && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1235 PM Sunday... Through the 24 hour TAF period: Expect VFR conditions for KINT/KGSO. To the south and east of KGSO over toward the I-95 corridor, flight conditions will be locally impacted and reduced by scattered showers and tstms this afternoon and evening, and potential for fog later tonight. Outside of the precip and fog, VFR conditions expected. Winds generally less than 10 kt at all TAF sites. Outlook... 18z Mon through late-week. Morning LIFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS possible at all sites, but especially KRDU/KFAY/KRWI between 06z-14z/Mon and again Tue am. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR CIGS are expected. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR conditions with scattered PM showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, lesser rain chances during the second half of the week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...np/Badgett

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