Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 101809 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 108 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY... VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY... THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT. THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22. && LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... ...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12- 10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY: REC YR REC YR LOW LOW MAX ---------------------------------------------- GSO: 02/13 11 1955 31 1986 02/14 6 1905 22 1914 RDU: 02/13 4 1899 10 1899 02/14 -2 1899 27 1916 FAY: 02/13 14 1973 32 1955 02/14 12 1968 33 1916 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...ELLIS CLIMATE...HARTFIELD

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