Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020152 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 952 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 PM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX OVER THE TN VALLEY IS DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION... AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. INITIAL VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MAX THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH...CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THUS SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE SOUTH. THUS PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM LOW END LIKELY FAR NORTH-NW TO CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH. THIS...IN TURN...WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE...TO THE UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 SOUTH WHERE PARTIAL AND FEWER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE SOME BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ACROSS THE SOUTH...IF ENOUGH PARTIAL SUN OCCURS...AVAILABLE DOWNDRAFT CAPE MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TEMPORARY LULL POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY... PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE AWAY FROM KGSO BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM. THIS HAS CAUSES SOME SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE 5 SM VISIBILITY AND HAZE ALREADY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...ELLIS

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