Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 060717 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 315 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY... A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH- NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH). MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 310 AM MONDAY... WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI... WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%) AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA. SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC. ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 140 AM MONDAY... THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI. MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS BY 12Z. LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22 NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION..ELLIS/22

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