Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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036 FXUS62 KRAH 261047 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 647 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall over SC through Wed, then retreat north through NC as a warm front Wed night and Thu. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM Wednesday... Through this morning (from previous discussion): Skies will be mainly clear, though with a persistence chance of stratus in the vicinity of the surface front - from the srn Coastal Plain to the srn/wrn Piedmont. Previously forecast lows mostly within a few degrees either side of 70 need no adjustment. -MWS Today will likely be the most comfortable day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat index values for much of the region. The cold front will remain stalled south of Central NC through today while the positively-tilted upper level trough also continues to extend southwest into SC/GA/FL. Models suggest the front retreating north and northeast, mainly in the far west, as the surface high pulls farther away from New England during the day. As the front retreats, winds may veer to more southeasterly or southerly. Expect an increase in moisture, cloud cover and chances for convection, primarily along the Yadkin and the NC/SC border. For now expect only isolated chances for convection over portions of Central NC, with greatest chances for points to the far south and west during the aft/eve. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. -KC && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... High pressure aloft over south-central U.S. will try to ridge eastward into the region, however an upper low over GA/FL and the amplifying trough over the Northeast will largely inhibit it. The previous surface front will have fully retreated northward and eastward out of the region, with warm, moist southerly flow and a lee-trough taking it`s place over the region. The next frontal system out west will continue to approach and impinge on the area through Thursday night. As a result, much of the day Thursday should be dry, however there will be increasing clouds and chances for convection through the overnight period. Best chances for showers and storms overnight should be restricted to the north and northwest. Expect highs in the upper 80s NW to low 90s south and overnight lows again returning to the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 430 AM Wednesday... A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough/compact upper low will dive SEWD through the Ohio Valley on Friday, and then through the the Mid-Atlantic region Friday night and into the day on Saturday before moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday evening/night. A surface low will undergo modest deepening over the northern Mid- Atlantic states as it comes under the increasing influence of the strong 80 to 100 meter synoptic scale height falls attendant to the digging mid-level trough. As the surface low shifts off the Mid- Atlantic Coast late Friday night, it will drag a cold front SE through the area late Friday night. There remains much uncertainty with the evolution (timing/location) of strong to severe convection across central NC, particularly given the potential for lead shortwave energy/disturbances ejecting east well ahead of the primary shortwave trough to support upstream convection/MCS into the region as early as Thursday night/Friday morning and the subsequent effects on heating/destabilization across the area later Friday afternoon. For now, will carry chance pops Friday through the first half of the day on Friday, increasing to likely pops Friday afternoon and into the evening with the arrival of the better forcing. If sufficient instability can develop, strengthening low-level kinematic winds in the 925-850mb layer of 30- 35kts could support a threat for severe storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with damaging straight-line winds the greatest threat. Stay tuned. Can`t rule out an isolated shower across the area on Saturday as the upper trough/vort max swings through the area. Otherwise skies will be clearing with a noticeably cooler and drier airmass in place through the weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will top out mostly in the mid 80s...3-5 degrees below normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. The front, meanwhile, will be stalled along the coast, with potential for development of a surface low along the front that could pull moisture back into at least the eastern sections of the state by midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Some low stratus lingers over the region as of 10Z. All sub-vfr restrictions should improve back to VFR over the next few hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate the remainder of the period, with light east-northeasterly winds slowly veering to more southeasterly and southerly throughout the period and scattered clouds around 5kft and 25kft. Broken cigs could linger longest across the south but should remain VFR. there could be some sub-vfr visbys, primarily across the south and east (KFAY and KRWI), early Thursday morning. -KC Looking ahead: The cold front to the south will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before a stronger cold front moves through the area on Friday and then stalls to our south over the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and a chance of morning fog and stratus. The greatest chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and storms will be Thursday night through Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. -Blaes
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&& .EQUIPMENT... Technicians have completed the bulk of the first phase of the Service Life Extension Project (SLEP) upgrade and the data quality is sufficient for the radar to return to service. Additional radar adjustments resulting in brief outages are still possible during the next few days. The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...KC/MWS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CBL/mlm AVIATION...KC/BLAES EQUIPMENT...BSD/BLAES

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