Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061648 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1150 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY... CANCELED ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AS ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE BEING REPORTED. A NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU EDGING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT MID MORNING PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS OBSERVED AT GSO/PTI AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. THIS BAND OF CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST- SW. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER OUR SE COUNTIES...EXPECT SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TODAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTH BY MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 NE AND LOW-MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... MODERATION IN A GRADUAL SENSE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY... SUN-SUN NIGHT: SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST SUN GIVEN A RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED OVER THE DESERT SW/WESTERN GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SUN AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUN NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE WEST/SW AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT WAA/FGEN...AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SWATH OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE SUN NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NW. MON-TUE NIGHT: WHILE PRIOR GUIDANCE INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LITTLE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE MON INTO TUE...WITH A RELATIVELY MORE ROBUST GOMEX WAVE PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUE. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WILL DECREASE HIGH TEMPS AND INCREASE LOW TEMPS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES. WED-THU: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1150 AM FRIDAY... THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SUB VFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING BY TUESDAY. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...WSS

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