Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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783 FXUS62 KRAH 240700 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 258 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic states will extend south into our region through early next week. Hurricane Marie is forecast to move northward through the western Atlantic through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 PM Saturday... Little change to a quiet forecast. Weak high pressure and low PWs are nosing into NW and N Central NC this evening, with very light surface winds mainly from the NE. With an otherwise dry column in place, expect just a few high clouds through the night, exhaust from Hurricane Maria translating toward the NW. Temps are tracking near or under last night`s pace, and with minimal downward-IR impact expected, lows should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Only isolated fog patches, primarily over bodies of water and swampy areas, are anticipated. -GIH Earlier discussion from 140 PM: A weak broad upper trough over the SE US will drift west today and tonight with central NC becoming under the increasing influence of the stacked anticyclone expanding eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region. This will allow for dry conditions and a nearly cloud free sky, aside from some very thin patchy cirrus clouds. Some patchy fog will again be possible with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 60s, with even a few upper 50s in the cold rural areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 258 AM Sunday... Hurricane Maria continues to be forecast by the NHC to track north through the open waters of the western Atlantic as surface high pressure remains back over the central Appalachians through Monday night. Outflow from the hurricane is expected to spread increasing high cloudiness west and north into eastern NC especially Monday afternoon and night. Sunny and dry conditions inland will give way to increasing cloudiness down east. Highs should still reach the mid to upper 80s (warmest in the western Piedmont where the drier, sunnier conditions will prevail). Further increasing in clouds from the east expected Monday night with lows 65-70, except lower 60s western Piedmont. In addition, the high pressure inland combined with Marie offshore will allow for a tightening pressure gradient. This will allow the surface winds to begin to increase to 15-20 mph over the Coastal Plain Monday afternoon, with 10-15 mph winds over the western Piedmont.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 258 AM Sunday... The latest NHC forecast and most of the latest guidance indicate the closest approach of Hurricane Marie to the NC coast should be from Wednesday through Thursday morning, before the storm finally gets a boot eastward from the expected deepening and digging mid/upper trough from the upper Midwest. Based on the latest NHC forecasts and guidance, the system has the potential to bring windy (15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) to our Coastal Plain midweek, with breezy (10- 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) conditions to the Piedmont and Sandhills regions. The probability of Tropical Storm-Force Wind Speed in our SE Coastal Plain has increased to between 20 and 30 percent, with only 5-10 percent back over the Triad and Triangle areas. However, the QPF is still low given the latest NHC track. Probabilities of 1+ inch are still less than 50/50 along the I-95 corridor. Sensible weather will be quite variable given the current track - with dry northerly flow in the western Piedmont, and progressively lower overcast and higher shower chances to the east. Expect cloudy skies east, variably cloudy central, and partly cloudy to mostly clear along the Yadkin River mid week. Lows will be generally 65-72 W to SE Tue-Thu, with highs held down in the east (upper 70s), ranging to the upper 80s SW. Finally, the TC threat should get pushed seaward Thursday courtesy of the approaching mid/upper trough. The leading front should little if any showers Thursday afternoon and night (as the front will be robbed of moisture by the Marie). Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Friday and Saturday will be much cooler with the strong surface high pressure building SE from central Canada to the upper Midwest. Highs Friday 75-82, then only 70-75 Saturday. Lows in the 50s (some 40s in the NW by Saturday). Models do suggest a potential wave on the front over FL or the SE coast by Sunday, with an increasingly moist NE flow in the lower levels. We will carry chance POPs late in the weekend to indicate the chance of overrunning rain by then.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ As of 730 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with an outside chance of some MVFR fog overnight but confidence very low after looking at very dry forecast soundings. Some wind gusts of 15-20 kts are possible on Sunday afternoon at eastern terminals. Otherwise expect 5-10 kts sustained out of the northeast. Outlook: VFR conditions through mid-week may be in jeopardy if the track of Hurricane Maria begins to shift closer to the coast. Therefore expect the possibility of some showers and breezy conditions in the east by late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...BSD/Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Ellis

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