Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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139 FXUS62 KRAH 300704 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 304 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Tropical Depression Bonnie, located over the central South Carolina coast, will drift slowly toward the northeast along the North Carolina coast through mid week, before moving offshore. A cold front will approach from the west late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 925 PM EDT... Tropical cyclone Bonnie has been nearly stationary over the past several hours. A slight jog to the northeast is expected late tonight/towards daybreak. Convective coverage has certainly been on a wane since loss of daytime heating. And despite the tropical moisture in place (PWS of 1.75-2.0"...1 to 2 S.D. above normal), much of the Hi-res CAMS indicate this lull will continue through most of the night. Will trim back pops for the remainder of the night, with chance pops over the Piedmont while keeping likely pops in the east where continued DCVA to the northeast of the circulation center, lifting atop the inverted trough/coastal front extending along the I-95 corridor will provide the best focus for lift and showers overnight. Expect a wide range in temperatures overnight with lows in the lower/mid 60s NW where CADish airmass resides, to lower 70s over the easter/southeastern counties, east of the sfc trough. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 215 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night. Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low. This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west. Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain, especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80. Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in the 65-70 range. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
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As of 305 AM Monday... Wednesday and Thursday: Tropical Depression Bonnie will continue to churn off the North Carolina coast on Wednesday somewhere between Wilmington and Cape Lookout. With no steering flow in place the forecast remains status quo with the best chances for precipitation in the east but models also hinting at precipitation forming as the result of orographic uplift as northeasterly flow approaches the Appalachians. Therefore will carry chance of showers and thunderstorms everywhere. Hot and humid with highs in the upper to middle 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Wednesday night in the mid 60s. Thursday will see the depression move a bit further northeast and thus central NC may see a bit of a lull in precipitation before the next system approaches from the west. Will carry low chance pops in the forecast but it is possible that precipitation isn`t realized until later in the day as moisture transport ahead of the front increases. By evening expect thunderstorms to become more numerous in the Triad and points west. These will be driven mostly by diurnal heating as any dynamics associated with the fronts parent low will reside well to the north. Highs still in the mid 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday through Sunday: Low pressure moving through the Northern Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec will move a frontal zone over the east coast and leave it there as it detaches and heads northeast. Back to the southwest an upper level low developing over Texas will help to initiate the development of a broad upper trough that will drape itself over the eastern US for several days. At the surface a couple of waves, most notably on Saturday afternoon, will move along the front and supply extra forcing for showers and thunderstorms over central NC. Expect best chances in the afternoon each day. Temperatures will cool off some during this time starting in the mid to upper 80s on Friday afternoon down to the lower 80s by Sunday afternoon. Lows each night in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/... As of 1240 AM Monday... Periods of adverse aviation conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at Central NC terminals, as very moist air remains in place over the area. At INT/GSO, MVFR cigs are expected to develop and persist through the morning, before gradually lifting to VFR during the early afternoon hours. Scattered showers this afternoon may generate brief MVFR vsbys, but otherwise VFR vsbys are expected during the daylight hours today. At RDU/RWI/FAY, IFR cigs are possible early this morning, with the best chances at RDU, where IFR vsbys are also possible. Vsbys at these three sites should improve to VFR later this morning, with cigs slower to improve, trending to MVFR during the afternoon. Isolated showers with MVFR vsbys are likely to pass near RDU/RWI/FAY through this morning, then coverage is expected to increase by afternoon, with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into evening producing brief MVFR to IFR conditions mainly at RDU/RWI/FAY. Shower/storm coverage is expected to slowly decrease this evening with a trend to MVFR to IFR conditions after sunset. Looking beyond 06Z early Tue morning: MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to hold through mid morning Tue, with improvement to MVFR east and to VFR west during Tue afternoon. Nightfall will bring another trend to sub-VFR conditions at all sites Tue night, as the air mass remains moist and unsettled with the center of TD Bonnie tracking slowly toward the NNE along the NC coast. Improvement to VFR is expected Wed lasting into Thu especially at INT/GSO, as Bonnie moves out over the sea, although sub-VFR vsbys in fog are possible late Wed night into early Thu morning with light surface winds. A cold front approaching from the west Thu night may bring sub-VFR conditions in showers/storms on Fri. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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