Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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184 FXUS62 KRAH 301118 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 718 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Eight will approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina later today or tonight, before lifting northeastward into the Atlantic Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday, then push southeastward through North Carolina on Thursday. Cool high pressure will start to build into the area from the north Thursday night and Friday, as what is now Tropical Depression Nine tracks northeast off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... The big North Carolina weather story of the day will be with tropical depression 8 as it churns off of the Carolina Coast. and as of 2 AM was about 115 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras with maximum sustained winds near 35 kts. The storm could strengthen and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is in place from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. While all that is going on near the coast, it should be of very little if any consequence to our weather here in central NC. The pattern is very stagnant with very little upper level flow and no real waves or disturbances to speak of outside of TD 8. Short term models are very reluctant to produce even light showers across the area this afternoon. Therefore the biggest threat for rain should be across the east with a few stray showers possible and later in the afternoon/early evening a few stray showers possible across the area but most of the area should remain dry. Not an incredibly hot day with temperatures topping out near 90 degrees and dewpoints near 70. East to northeasterly winds will prevail throughout the day. Lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... Tropical Depression 8 will begin its exit to the northeast by Wednesday morning again with little consequence to central NC. A mostly dry day again as we remain in the doldrums between the exiting tropical system and an upper level trough that will just begin to deepen by Wednesday night. Tropical Depression 9 will be approaching the Gulf Coast along the Florida Panhandle at this time but will still be far enough away to not have any effect on us here. Temperatures a near carbon copy of Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees and dewpoints in the low 70s. Some slight chances for rain across the east but also in the northwest Piedmont as a cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Lows Wednesday night in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Thu/Thu night: Precip concerns for NC Thu/Thu night include a low pressure area projected by some models to be just off the southern NC coast early Fri, as well as the cold front approaching from the NW, driven by a digging northern stream trough swinging through the St. Lawrence valley and Northeast states. The former feature, if it occurs, is likely to impact only our far SE sections (where PW will be higher) early in the day, while the latter should bring a broken band of showers and a few storms across the entire CWA later in the day and into the evening, a result of marginal instability and deep layer shear, upper divergence in the right entrance region of the jet extending from northern VA to the Canadian maritimes, and low level mass convergence and moisture pooling ahead of the front. But coverage should be limited somewhat by the preceding low level downslope component to the low level flow. Will keep a pop in the far SE early, then retain a trend up to good chance pops Thu afternoon, trending down in the late evening and overnight from NW to SE. Highs 87-92 on the last day of above-normal temps prior to frontal passage. Lows 65-70. Fri-Mon: The circulation around what is now TD9 may pull a few tropical showers into our far SE Fri as it tracks toward the NE off the SC/NC coast, along with enhanced surface winds and gusts from the northeast. But otherwise our weather heading into the weekend will be largely driven by the cool high pressure building in from the north, pulling in below-normal thicknesses and a markedly drier air mass that will last into Mon, albeit with some modification as the mean weak trough eases eastward just off the East Coast as heights build in the west due to the building mid level ridge through the Miss Valley and Ohio Valley. Weather may remain a bit unsettled over the eastern CWA near the baggy upper trough axis, but otherwise will have a dry forecast. Highs mostly in the lower-mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid 60s. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 720 AM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: MVFR conditions have not shown up this morning so far and conditions are likely to remain VFR from here on out until perhaps near the end of the TAF period if MVFR ceilings move in, particularly in the east. Otherwise easterly to north easterly winds today at 5-10 kts. Long Term: Fairly dry conditions for much of the week with the biggest threat for showers and thunderstorms in the extreme eastern locations. A better chance for sub-VFR conditions near the end of the week as what is now tropical depression nine makes a pass to the south.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.