Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261951 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 252 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area will move offshore late tonight and into the day on Monday. A warm front will approach from the south Monday night, then move north of the region Tuesday. Warm southwesterly flow will continue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
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&& NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 250 PM SUNDAY... Flow aloft has become quasi-zonal in the wake of upper trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic region. While at the surface, modified cP parent high centered over the TN Valley this morning will shift east over the area through the afternoon and then slip offshore late tonight and into the day on Monday. Batch of broken high clouds in advance of the sheared shortwave energy ejecting eastward across the Lower MS Valley will bring an increase in high clouds late tonight/during the predawn hours Monday morning, which could temper low temps just a bit. Overnight lows in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM SUNDAY... Surface ridge axis will extend west into the area from the parent high centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Resultant southerly- southeasterly low-level flow will allow for moderation of cP airmass with highs Monday a good 7 to 10 degrees warmer than Sunday. Highs ranging from lower 60s NW to upper 60s/near 70 SE. Strengthening southwesterly low-level WAA ahead of the sheared low- amplitude shortwave trough moving into region will result in increasing clouds by the late afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible during the evening and into the overnight hours. The NAM is especially wet as it develops 500-750 J/Kg of elevated instability across the area, but believe this to be a bit overdone. Much warmer overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Sunday... A warming trend will continue early next week, peaking on Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. However, deep southwesterly flow early to mid next week will allow for plenty of moisture/clouds along with periods of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through Wednesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the strong cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Deep layer shear will be impressive with this system, on the order of 50-60 kts, but diurnal timing will be poor with any convective line moving across the area overnight. Nonetheless, we should at least see some storms, with at least a small severe threat (depending on the amount of instability). High temps Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to generally be in the 70s, with possibly some lower 80s on Wednesday across southern and eastern portions of the area. Low temps will follow a similar trend, well above normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday morning. Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a reinforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in the 60s. High Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to near 60 south. Low are expected to be in the 30s late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1227 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: There is high confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period, as surface high pressure moves east across the region, becoming positioned off the NC coast Monday afternoon. Northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range will become light as variable late this afternoon and evening as the high shifts overhead, and will become south-southeasterly on Monday. Outlook: Warm moist air advection ahead of a upper level disturbance could produce the next chance for sub-VFR conditions Monday night with isolated to widely scattered showers possible. Scattered showers along with the threat of sub-VFR conditions could linger into Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu will bring a better chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Cool high pressure building into the area Thursday and Friday will bring a return to VFR conditions for late in the week and into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...CBL

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