Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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163 FXUS62 KRAH 180010 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 707 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will approach from the west and cross the southeastern U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will otherwise extend across our region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 707 PM Friday... Dew points are coming up in the southeast and south central areas of NC, into the 30s. Elsewhere, dry air remains in place with dew points in the 20s. A SW flow at 10 mph will advect in the higher dew points into the region overnight, reaching 30 in the NW and 40 in the SE by 12z. In addition, the approach of the mid/upper trough from the SW will bring increasing high cloudiness after 06z. Lows in general should be in the mid 30s NE ranging into the lower 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Friday... The mid level shortwave ridge axis is expected to be overhead at sunrise Sat, after which time it will shift steadily off the coast as the upper low crosses the Mid South Sat before then opening up a bit as it crosses the Carolinas Sat night. Forecast soundings depict relatively little moisture with this feature, focused primarily in the mid to upper levels, with weak low level moisture transport, and steady MSLP with ridging extending across the Southeast and a weak lee trough over the Piedmont. Also, the initially-decent DPVA weakens as this low/trough approaches and dampens, contributing to reduced forcing for ascent as we head through Sat night. Model output overwhelmingly supports little in the way of measurable precip in central NC, including the SREF and NCAR ensemble which show very low to no chance of measurable precip, and the operational models which show only very light amounts barely scraping the NW and SE corners of the CWA. Based on this limited moisture and lift, will limit slight chances over just the SE and NW CWA Sat night. Expect increasing and thickening clouds Sat, with thicknesses supporting highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows in the mid-upper 40s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 155 PM Friday... An upper level disturbance will move west of the Appalachians on Sunday while a surface low develops off of the southeast coast. Model runs continue to trend drier for this system for central NC and at this time there is a good chance that both of these systems could pass us by with little to no rainfall across the area. This will lead to cloudy skies early Sunday and clearing by afternoon. This will allow max temps to rise towards the 70 degree mark. Beyond Sunday a very strong upper level ridge will keep us warm and dry through at least Tuesday night with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A weak frontal system on Wednesday will give slight chances for rain but nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch. For the end of the week we will have slight chances for rain each day as central NC resides under a southerly return flow regime with high pressure out over the western Atlantic. As the same time a strong low pressure system over the Midwest may help to enhance moisture transport into the area. The whole time we will remain in the warm sector with high temps in the low 70s, well above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 655 PM Friday... Under the influence of dry surface high pressure over the southeastern U.S., VFR conditions (with a high degree of confidence) are expected through at least the first 20 or so hours of the TAF period. The approach of an upper level trough, and associated mid to to upper level lift, will result in a thickening and lowering of clouds above 12 thousand feet Sat afternoon. Precipitation aloft will accompany these clouds, but very dry air below the clouds suggests most of the precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground, resulting in virga. Nonetheless, a few VFR sprinkles or brief showers will be possible from west to east between 22Z Sat and 04Z Sun. Generally SWly surface winds will be light through early Sat, then increase to between 8-15 kts --highest at eastern sites and with occasional gusts to around 20 kts-- Sat afternoon. Outlook: There will be a chance of showers, and perhaps brief MVFR ceilings in SEly flow off the Atlantic, Tue night-Wed. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...MWS

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