Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290552 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 152 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 AM MONDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL NC...TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY/TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MAY ALLOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST AFT/EVE. EVEN IF A WAVE FORMS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE BUCKLES...VERY LITTLE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WFO RAH COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...LOWS TONIGHT MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SSE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFT/EVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS) AND COOLING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY LATE TUE AFT/EVE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AFTER SUNSET (00-06Z WED)... INDICATING THAT A DISCONNECT MAY EXIST BETWEEN THE BEST DESTABILIZATION/FORCING...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS (30-40%)...HIGHEST BETWEEN 21-06Z...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE IN THE TRIAD WHERE CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER FORCING (IN CLOSER VICINITY TO PEAK HEATING). EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST S/SE. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY RELAXES AND FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING FROM 584DM ON TUESDAY TO 590DM ON SUNDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES OR PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT THE FAY TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING (08-12Z)...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK...EXCEPT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS TUE-THU WHEN CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. -VINCENT
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...VINCENT

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