Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 131948 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 248 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A fast moving upper level disturbance will move just north of the region tonight, and will be followed by a weak surface cold front that is expected to pass across central North Carolina Thursday morning. High pressure will then build into the area by late Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 248 PM Wednesday... Latest water vapor shows the next short wave trough crossing the Midwest and western Great Lakes regions. This wave will continue tracking to the SE then E, passing by to the north of our area later this evening and overnight. The attendant sfc cold front will lag a bit behind...not expected to cross central NC (uneventfully) until just after sunrise Thursday morning. Other than a brief increase in mid and high clouds on the southern tail end of the system, and perhaps a bit of a light breeze (rather than the typical calm or light winds that we usually see overnight)...we`re not expecting any notable weather or impacts from this system. In terms of temps...look for a subtle warming trend ahead of the cold front, thus lows tonight will likely be several degrees warmer than last night, but still falling below freezing across most if not all of our zones. Lows in the upper 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 248 PM Wednesday... Fair weather is in store for Thursday in the wake of tonight`s departing short wave trough and the sfc cold front continuing to push south of our area. With the upper flow becoming westerly, look for the high clouds currently located over the central Plains to gradually move eastward and across our area. Otherwise, with low level thicknesses remaining close to their pre-frontal values (some 30-40m higher than today), we should see highs at least 8-10 degrees warmer than today. Overall, Thursday will be partly cloudy with highs in the lower 50s. Thursday evening the low level wind field will shift to the N/NE as high pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east. Although low level thicknesses may drop a few meters on this N/NE flow...increasing high clouds from the southwest should offset the cooler airmass. Lows in the upper 20s to around 30 under partly cloudy skies.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 615 AM Wednesday... Much of Friday and the weekend will be characterized by a flattening out of the upper trough to a more zonal pattern and a moderating trend to near normal temperatures as surface high pressure moves across the deep south and over the Carolinas. For the beginning of next week, a low pressure system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will move northeastward bringing rain chances to the area as early as Sunday night but more likely on Monday through Monday night. No threat of any wintry precipitation with this system as temperatures will be well into the 50s to near 60 degrees on Monday. The system may clear out by Monday night but the GFS is showing a secondary wave moving up the front and brining a second round of rain to the area on Tuesday. This is completely inconsistent with the ECMWF solution which does not show any wave whatsoever and thus keeps the forecast dry during this time. Have introduced very low slight chance pops at this time. Temperatures Tuesday remain in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees for highs.&& .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1232 PM Wednesday... Through 14/18z: Mainly clear skies will persist through the rest of the afternoon, then mid and high clouds will briefly cross north- central NC between 14/00z-14/07z, associated with the the next short wave passing by to our north. HRRR forecast soundings hint that a brief period of LLWS is possible during those evening and early overnight hours, thus have included it at all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period. After 14/18Z: VFR conditions expected through the rest of the week. A southern stream system may bring increased moisture and risk for reduced flight conditions early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...np

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